Valladolid vs Andorra prediction & probabilities (2026-09-05)

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Valladolid vs Andorra: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 5 Sep 2026

Segunda División
Valladolid

LLLLD

Full time1-0Sat, 5 Sep 202617:30UK
Andorra

LLWLL

Model’s top convictions

73%

Over 1.5 goals

68%

Draw or Andorra

59%

Valladolid or draw

Full time6 of 11 calls right

Post-Match Analysis

Valladolid 1-0 Andorra
✕ Result✓ Over 2.5 goals✕ Over 1.5 goals✓ Over 3.5 goals✕ Both teams to score✓ First-half goal✕ Second-half goal✓ Over 9.5 corners✓ Over 3.5 cards✓ Over 24.5 shots✕ Over 7.5 shots on target✕ Red card
6 of 12 published calls on this match were right.

Our most likely call was Andorra at 40.7%, and it was wrong. We called Under 2.5 at 52.5% and it landed (1 goals). We called Over 1.5 at 73.3% and it missed (1 goals). We called Under 3.5 at 74.2% and it landed (1 goals). We called Yes at 52.7% and it missed. We called Yes at 63.6% and it landed. We called Yes at 79.4% and it missed. We called Under 9.5 at 56.0% and it landed (6 corners). We called Over 3.5 at 78.3% and it landed (6 yellow cards). We called Under 24.5 at 51.9% and it landed (22 shots). We called Over 7.5 at 62.9% and it missed (7 shots on target). We called No at 82.2% and it missed.

Match data Valladolid Andorra
Goals, 1st half 1 0
Goals, 2nd half 0 0
Shots 9 13
Shots on target 3 4
Corners 2 4
Yellow cards 2 4
Red cards 1 0
Fouls 14 21

Final match data.

Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
AndorraWin probability
40.7%
Top 3 convictions

Over 1.5 goals73.3%Strong chancePays @ 1.36
Draw or Andorra68.4%Strong chancePays @ 1.46
Valladolid or draw59.4%Good chancePays @ 1.68

Model read

▾

"When model and market disagree on Andorra, that gap is the story." Valladolid versus Andorra in the Segunda División on 5 September 2026 is finely balanced. Andorra edge it at 41%, but the gap to the field is slim. Notably, the model is warmer on Andorra than the market (33%). We flag disagreement rather than hide it. Totals sit close to the fence: 48% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 53%. Head to head, the last 4 meetings gave 1 wins for Valladolid, 0 draws and 3 for Andorra, averaging 1.8 goals a game. Form guide over the last six: Valladolid W0 D1 L5, Andorra W1 D0 L5. The engine passes on this one (outside trust zone (model prob 0.41, zone (0.45, 0.7))).

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 2.5 goals47.5%@ 2.11
Over 9.5 corners43.5%@ 2.30
Andorra win40.7%@ 2.46
Medium risk

Over 8.5 corners54.6%@ 1.83
Both teams to score52.7%@ 1.90
Under 2.5 goals52.5%@ 1.90
Random finds

1-1 correct score13.2%@ 7.59
0-1 correct score9.9%@ 10.08
1-2 correct score8.7%@ 11.53

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Valladolid

31.7%-7.2%

Draw

27.7%-0.5%

Andorra

40.7%+7.9%

ModelMarket

outside trust zone (model prob 0.41, zone (0.45, 0.7))

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.573.3%

Strong chance

Over 2.547.5%

Reasonable chance

BTTS · Yes52.7%

Good chance

Corners markets

Over 8.554.6%

Good chance

Over 9.543.5%

Reasonable chance

Over 10.533.4%

Toss-up

Over 11.524.7%

Low chance

Most cornersValladolid59.1%Andorra30.0%

Shots markets

Over 22.561.1%

Strong chance

Over 24.548.1%

Reasonable chance

Over 26.535.7%

Toss-up

Over 28.524.9%

Low chance

Totals line guide

0.5·1.573.3%2.547.5%3.5·4.5·
Our pre-match focusOver 1.573.3%

Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.

Form & head-to-head

ValladolidLLLLD
AndorraLLWLL

Last 4 meetings: Valladolid 1 · 0 draws · Andorra 3 · 1.8 goals/game.

2026-04-19Andorra 1-0 Valladolid
2025-12-13Valladolid 0-1 Andorra
2024-03-03Andorra 2-1 Valladolid
2023-10-22Valladolid 2-0 Andorra

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

ValladolidAndorra
League position#19 of 22#15 of 22
Record W-D-L0-1-21-0-2
Current streakD1L2
Record, home vs away·0-0-1
Red cards this season00

League averages this season: 2.36 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 42% · BTTS in 42%. Full league tables & stats →

Bookmaker odds

Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.

BookmakerOur fair
Valladolid win2.403.15
Draw3.253.61
Andorra win2.822.46
Over 2.5 goals1.952.11
Under 2.5 goals1.851.90

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Valladolid win3.16
Draw3.62
Andorra win2.46
Both teams to score1.90

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.09
Over 1.5 goals1.36
Over 2.5 goals2.11
Over 3.5 goals3.88
Valladolid most3.16
Andorra most2.46

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.45
Over 8.5 corners1.77
Over 9.5 corners2.27
Over 10.5 corners3.08
Valladolid most1.69
Andorra most3.33

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.11
Over 3.5 cards1.28
Over 4.5 cards1.61
Over 5.5 cards2.23
Valladolid most2.56
Andorra most2.31

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.33
Over 7.5 SoT1.59
Over 8.5 SoT2.00
Over 9.5 SoT2.68
Valladolid most1.76
Andorra most3.26

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.64
Over 24.5 shots2.08
Over 26.5 shots2.80
Over 28.5 shots4.02
Valladolid most1.57
Andorra most3.31

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.15
Over 22.5 fouls1.29
Over 24.5 fouls1.51
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots on target

Over 6.5 75.2% Over 7.5 62.9% Over 8.5 49.9% Over 9.5 37.3%
Most: Valladolid 56.8% Most: Andorra 30.7%
Valladolid Over 4.2 52.8% Andorra Over 4.2 33.8%

Cards

Over 2.5 90.3% Over 3.5 78.3% Over 4.5 62.2%
Most: Valladolid 39.1% Most: Andorra 43.3%
Valladolid Over 1.8 73.7% Andorra Over 1.8 76.0%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Valladolid clean sheet 25.1%
Andorra clean sheet 30.3%
Valladolid win to nil 16.8%
Andorra win to nil 22.1%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 31.7% draw 27.7% away 40.7%
double_chance
1X 59.3% 12 72.3% X2 68.3%
dnb
home 43.8% away 56.2%
btts
yes 52.7% no 47.3%
clean_sheet
home 25.1% away 30.4%
win_to_nil
home 16.9% away 22.2%
winning_margin
home_by_1 18.3% home_by_2 9.1% home_by_3plus 4.3%
away_by_1 21.3% away_by_2 12.2% away_by_3plus 7.1%
correct_score
0-0 8.3% 0-1 9.9% 0-2 7.3%
0-3 3.4% 0-4 1.2% 0-5 0.3%
1-0 8.5% 1-1 13.2% 1-2 8.7%
1-3 4.0% 1-4 1.4% 1-5 0.4%
2-0 5.4% 2-1 7.5% 2-2 5.2%
2-3 2.4% 2-4 0.8% 2-5 0.2%
3-0 2.2% 3-1 3.0% 3-2 2.1%
3-3 0.9% 3-4 0.3% 3-5 0.1%
4-0 0.6% 4-1 0.9% 4-2 0.6%
4-3 0.3% 4-4 0.1% 4-5 0.0%
5-0 0.2% 5-1 0.2% 5-2 0.2%
5-3 0.1% 5-4 0.0% 5-5 0.0%
other 0.4%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 13.2%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 91.7% under_0.5 8.3% over_1.5 73.3%
under_1.5 26.7% over_2.5 47.5% under_2.5 52.5%
over_3.5 25.8% under_3.5 74.2% over_4.5 11.9%
under_4.5 88.1% over_5.5 4.7% under_5.5 95.3%
odd_even
odd 48.4% even 51.6%
team_home
over_0.5 69.6% under_0.5 30.4% over_1.5 33.4%
under_1.5 66.6% over_2.5 11.8% under_2.5 88.2%
team_away
over_0.5 74.9% under_0.5 25.1% over_1.5 40.2%
under_1.5 59.8% over_2.5 16.2% under_2.5 83.8%
most
home 31.7% draw 27.7% away 40.7%
handicap
home_-2.5 4.3% away_+2.5 95.7% home_-1.5 13.4%
away_+1.5 86.6% home_-0.5 31.7% away_+0.5 68.3%
home_+0.5 59.3% away_-0.5 40.7% home_+1.5 80.7%
away_-1.5 19.3% home_+2.5 92.9% away_-2.5 7.1%
total_exact
exact_0 8.3% exact_1 18.4% exact_2 25.9%
exact_3 21.7% exact_4 13.9% exact_5 7.2%
exact_6 3.1% exact_7plus 1.6%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 24.8% draw 46.3% away 28.9%
total
over_0.5 63.6% under_0.5 36.4% over_1.5 26.8%
under_1.5 73.2% over_2.5 8.2% under_2.5 91.8%
btts
yes 15.7% no 84.4%
total_exact
exact_0 36.4% exact_1 36.8% exact_2 18.6%
exact_3 6.3% exact_4plus 2.0%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 26.6% draw 35.4% away 38.0%
total
over_0.5 79.4% under_0.5 20.6% over_1.5 46.8%
under_1.5 53.2% over_2.5 21.1% under_2.5 78.9%
btts
yes 29.3% no 70.7%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 16.7% H/D 5.3% H/A 2.8%
D/H 12.3% D/D 16.4% D/A 17.6%
A/H 1.8% A/D 4.6% A/A 22.6%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 68.8% under_7.5 31.2% over_8.5 56.4%
under_8.5 43.6% over_9.5 44.0% under_9.5 56.0%
over_10.5 32.5% under_10.5 67.5% over_11.5 22.8%
under_11.5 77.2% over_12.5 15.2% under_12.5 84.8%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 73.8% under_3.5 26.2% over_4.5 58.4%
under_4.5 41.6% over_5.5 42.9% under_5.5 57.1%
team_away
over_3.5 53.5% under_3.5 46.5% over_4.5 35.9%
under_4.5 64.1% over_5.5 22.0% under_5.5 78.0%
most
home 59.3% draw 10.7% away 30.0%
handicap
home_-3.5 26.8% away_+3.5 73.2% home_-1.5 47.9%
away_+1.5 52.1% home_-0.5 59.3% away_+0.5 40.7%
home_+0.5 70.0% away_-0.5 30.0% home_+1.5 79.2%
away_-1.5 20.8% home_+3.5 91.7% away_-3.5 8.3%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 61.1% under_22.5 38.9% over_24.5 48.1%
under_24.5 51.9% over_26.5 35.7% under_26.5 64.3%
over_28.5 24.9% under_28.5 75.1%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 73.5% under_10.5 26.5% over_12.5 56.8%
under_12.5 43.2% over_14.5 39.9% under_14.5 60.1%
team_away
over_10.5 50.9% under_10.5 49.1% over_12.5 32.5%
under_12.5 67.5% over_14.5 18.4% under_14.5 81.6%
most
home 63.8% draw 6.0% away 30.2%
handicap
home_-4.5 37.9% away_+4.5 62.1% home_-2.5 50.9%
away_+2.5 49.1% home_-0.5 63.8% away_+0.5 36.2%
home_+0.5 69.8% away_-0.5 30.2% home_+2.5 80.2%
away_-2.5 19.8% home_+4.5 88.1% away_-4.5 11.9%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 75.2% under_6.5 24.8% over_7.5 62.9%
under_7.5 37.1% over_8.5 49.9% under_8.5 50.1%
over_9.5 37.4% under_9.5 62.6%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 70.2% under_3.5 29.8% over_4.5 52.8%
under_4.5 47.2% over_5.5 36.1% under_5.5 63.9%
team_away
over_3.5 52.5% under_3.5 47.5% over_4.5 33.8%
under_4.5 66.2% over_5.5 19.5% under_5.5 80.5%
most
home 56.8% draw 12.6% away 30.7%
handicap
home_-2.5 31.1% away_+2.5 68.9% home_-0.5 56.8%
away_+0.5 43.2% home_+0.5 69.3% away_-0.5 30.7%
home_+2.5 87.9% away_-2.5 12.0%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 90.3% under_2.5 9.7% over_3.5 78.3%
under_3.5 21.7% over_4.5 62.2% under_4.5 37.8%
over_5.5 44.9% under_5.5 55.1%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 73.7% under_1.5 26.3% over_2.5 48.8%
under_2.5 51.2%
team_away
over_1.5 76.0% under_1.5 24.0% over_2.5 51.8%
under_2.5 48.2%
most
home 39.1% draw 17.6% away 43.3%
handicap
home_-1.5 23.6% away_+1.5 76.4% home_-0.5 39.1%
away_+0.5 60.9% home_+0.5 56.8% away_-0.5 43.3%
home_+1.5 73.0% away_-1.5 27.0%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 86.8% under_20.5 13.2% over_22.5 77.6%
under_22.5 22.4% over_24.5 66.1% under_24.5 33.9%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 85.6% under_9.5 14.4% over_11.5 71.1%
under_11.5 28.9% over_13.5 53.3% under_13.5 46.7%
team_away
over_9.5 79.9% under_9.5 20.1% over_11.5 62.8%
under_11.5 37.2% over_13.5 43.9% under_13.5 56.1%
most
home 53.3% draw 6.5% away 40.2%
handicap
home_-3.5 33.9% away_+3.5 66.1% home_-0.5 53.3%
away_+0.5 46.7% home_+2.5 71.9% away_-2.5 28.1%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 17.8% no 82.2%
home
yes 13.1% no 86.9%
away
yes 5.4% no 94.6%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Valladolid predictions · Andorra predictions · Segunda División

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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Segunda DivisiónValladolidAndorraTrack record