Ceuta vs Celta B prediction & probabilities (2026-09-05)

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Ceuta vs Celta B: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 5 Sep 2026

Segunda División
Ceuta

WWLLL

Full time0-2Sat, 5 Sep 202617:30UK
Celta B

DWL

Model’s top convictions

75%

Over 1.5 goals

72%

Ceuta or draw

55%

Over 8.5 corners

Full time7 of 11 calls right

Post-Match Analysis

Ceuta 0-2 Celta B
✕ Result✓ Over 2.5 goals✓ Over 1.5 goals✓ Over 3.5 goals✕ Both teams to score✓ First-half goal✓ Second-half goal✕ Over 9.5 corners✓ Over 3.5 cards✕ Over 24.5 shots✓ Over 7.5 shots on target✕ Red card
7 of 12 published calls on this match were right.

Our most likely call was Ceuta at 45.6%, and it was wrong. We called Under 2.5 at 50.0% and it landed (2 goals). We called Over 1.5 at 75.2% and it landed (2 goals). We called Under 3.5 at 72.0% and it landed (2 goals). We called Yes at 53.9% and it missed. We called Yes at 64.5% and it landed. We called Yes at 83.8% and it landed. We called Under 9.5 at 55.1% and it missed (12 corners). We called Over 3.5 at 74.3% and it landed (8 yellow cards). We called Under 24.5 at 51.7% and it missed (33 shots). We called Over 7.5 at 61.5% and it landed (10 shots on target). We called No at 88.3% and it missed.

Match data Ceuta Celta B
Goals, 1st half 0 1
Goals, 2nd half 0 1
Shots 18 15
Shots on target 6 4
Corners 8 4
Yellow cards 3 5
Red cards 1 0
Fouls 22 19

Final match data.

Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
CeutaWin probability
45.6%
Top 3 convictions

Over 1.5 goals75.2%Strong chancePays @ 1.33
Ceuta or draw72.2%Strong chancePays @ 1.39
Over 8.5 corners55.4%Good chancePays @ 1.81

Model read

▾

Our engine prices Ceuta at 46% for 5 September 2026. Favourites, yes; certainties, no. Market and model are aligned here; the fair price says 47%. No strong lean on goals (50% Over 2.5). The interest, if any, lives elsewhere. As a promoted side, Celta B carry exactly the structural uncertainty our priors were built for. The run in: Ceuta arrive W2 D0 L4, Celta B W1 D1 L1. Verdict: no bet. Value_gap +0.014 <= 0.03.

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 9.5 corners44.4%@ 2.25
Over 10.5 corners34.1%@ 2.93
Medium risk

Draw or Celta B54.4%@ 1.84
Both teams to score53.9%@ 1.86
Over 2.5 goals50.0%@ 2.00
Random finds

1-1 correct score12.7%@ 7.89
1-0 correct score10.0%@ 10.03
2-1 correct score9.2%@ 10.82

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Ceuta

45.6%-1.6%

Draw

26.6%+0.2%

Celta B

27.8%+1.4%

ModelMarket

value_gap +0.014 <= 0.03

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.575.2%

Strong chance

Over 2.550.0%

Good chance

BTTS · Yes53.9%

Good chance

Corners markets

Over 8.555.4%

Good chance

Over 9.544.4%

Reasonable chance

Over 10.534.1%

Toss-up

Over 11.525.3%

Low chance

Most cornersCeuta54.9%Celta B34.0%

Shots markets

Over 22.561.2%

Strong chance

Over 24.548.3%

Reasonable chance

Over 26.535.9%

Toss-up

Over 28.525.0%

Low chance

Totals line guide

0.5·1.575.2%2.550.0%3.5·4.5·
Our pre-match focusOver 1.575.2%

Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.

Form & head-to-head

CeutaWWLLL
Celta BDWL

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

CeutaCelta B
League position#22 of 22#11 of 22
Record W-D-L0-0-31-1-1
Current streakL3L1
Record, home vs away0-0-10-1-0
Red cards this season00

League averages this season: 2.36 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 42% · BTTS in 42%. Full league tables & stats →

Bookmaker odds

Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.

BookmakerOur fair
Ceuta win2.012.19
Draw3.503.76
Celta B win3.503.60
Over 2.5 goals1.852.00
Under 2.5 goals1.952.00

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Ceuta win2.19
Draw3.76
Celta B win3.60
Both teams to score1.85

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.08
Over 1.5 goals1.33
Over 2.5 goals2.00
Over 3.5 goals3.57
Ceuta most2.19
Celta B most3.60

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.44
Over 8.5 corners1.74
Over 9.5 corners2.23
Over 10.5 corners3.00
Ceuta most1.82
Celta B most2.94

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.14
Over 3.5 cards1.35
Over 4.5 cards1.76
Over 5.5 cards2.54
Ceuta most2.47
Celta B most2.42

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.35
Over 7.5 SoT1.62
Over 8.5 SoT2.07
Over 9.5 SoT2.79
Ceuta most1.99
Celta B most2.74

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.63
Over 24.5 shots2.07
Over 26.5 shots2.79
Over 28.5 shots4.00
Ceuta most1.57
Celta B most3.29

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.15
Over 22.5 fouls1.28
Over 24.5 fouls1.49
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots on target

Over 6.5 74.0% Over 7.5 61.5% Over 8.5 48.4% Over 9.5 35.9%
Most: Ceuta 50.4% Most: Celta B 36.5%
Ceuta Over 4.2 47.4% Celta B Over 4.2 37.4%

Cards

Over 2.5 88.0% Over 3.5 74.3% Over 4.5 57.0%
Most: Ceuta 40.5% Most: Celta B 41.3%
Ceuta Over 1.8 71.6% Celta B Over 1.8 72.1%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Ceuta clean sheet 31.8%
Celta B clean sheet 21.6%
Ceuta win to nil 24.3%
Celta B win to nil 14.1%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 45.6% draw 26.6% away 27.8%
double_chance
1X 72.3% 12 73.4% X2 54.4%
dnb
home 62.2% away 37.8%
btts
yes 53.9% no 46.1%
clean_sheet
home 31.9% away 21.6%
win_to_nil
home 24.4% away 14.1%
winning_margin
home_by_1 22.3% home_by_2 14.0% home_by_3plus 9.3%
away_by_1 16.5% away_by_2 7.8% away_by_3plus 3.5%
correct_score
0-0 7.5% 0-1 7.3% 0-2 4.5%
0-3 1.7% 0-4 0.5% 0-5 0.1%
1-0 10.0% 1-1 12.7% 1-2 6.9%
1-3 2.6% 1-4 0.8% 1-5 0.2%
2-0 8.1% 2-1 9.2% 2-2 5.3%
2-3 2.0% 2-4 0.6% 2-5 0.1%
3-0 4.1% 3-1 4.7% 3-2 2.7%
3-3 1.0% 3-4 0.3% 3-5 0.1%
4-0 1.6% 4-1 1.8% 4-2 1.0%
4-3 0.4% 4-4 0.1% 4-5 0.0%
5-0 0.5% 5-1 0.5% 5-2 0.3%
5-3 0.1% 5-4 0.0% 5-5 0.0%
other 0.6%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 12.7%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 92.5% under_0.5 7.5% over_1.5 75.2%
under_1.5 24.8% over_2.5 50.0% under_2.5 50.0%
over_3.5 28.0% under_3.5 72.0% over_4.5 13.3%
under_4.5 86.7% over_5.5 5.5% under_5.5 94.5%
odd_even
odd 48.6% even 51.4%
team_home
over_0.5 78.4% under_0.5 21.6% over_1.5 45.2%
under_1.5 54.8% over_2.5 19.9% under_2.5 80.1%
team_away
over_0.5 68.1% under_0.5 31.9% over_1.5 31.6%
under_1.5 68.4% over_2.5 10.8% under_2.5 89.2%
most
home 45.6% draw 26.6% away 27.8%
handicap
home_-2.5 9.3% away_+2.5 90.7% home_-1.5 23.3%
away_+1.5 76.7% home_-0.5 45.6% away_+0.5 54.4%
home_+0.5 72.3% away_-0.5 27.8% home_+1.5 88.8%
away_-1.5 11.3% home_+2.5 96.5% away_-2.5 3.5%
total_exact
exact_0 7.5% exact_1 17.3% exact_2 25.3%
exact_3 22.0% exact_4 14.7% exact_5 7.9%
exact_6 3.5% exact_7plus 2.0%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 32.3% draw 45.5% away 22.2%
total
over_0.5 64.5% under_0.5 35.5% over_1.5 27.7%
under_1.5 72.3% over_2.5 8.7% under_2.5 91.3%
btts
yes 16.0% no 84.0%
total_exact
exact_0 35.5% exact_1 36.8% exact_2 19.0%
exact_3 6.6% exact_4plus 2.1%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 22.0% draw 31.5% away 46.5%
total
over_0.5 83.8% under_0.5 16.2% over_1.5 54.3%
under_1.5 45.7% over_2.5 27.5% under_2.5 72.6%
btts
yes 33.6% no 66.4%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 19.7% H/D 7.4% H/A 5.2%
D/H 10.0% D/D 14.3% D/A 21.1%
A/H 1.1% A/D 3.0% A/A 18.0%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 69.5% under_7.5 30.5% over_8.5 57.3%
under_8.5 42.7% over_9.5 44.9% under_9.5 55.1%
over_10.5 33.4% under_10.5 66.6% over_11.5 23.5%
under_11.5 76.5% over_12.5 15.8% under_12.5 84.2%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 71.8% under_3.5 28.2% over_4.5 56.0%
under_4.5 44.0% over_5.5 40.5% under_5.5 59.5%
team_away
over_3.5 57.5% under_3.5 42.5% over_4.5 40.0%
under_4.5 60.0% over_5.5 25.4% under_5.5 74.6%
most
home 55.0% draw 11.0% away 34.0%
handicap
home_-3.5 23.5% away_+3.5 76.5% home_-1.5 43.6%
away_+1.5 56.4% home_-0.5 55.0% away_+0.5 45.0%
home_+0.5 66.0% away_-0.5 34.0% home_+1.5 75.7%
away_-1.5 24.3% home_+3.5 89.7% away_-3.5 10.3%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 61.2% under_22.5 38.8% over_24.5 48.3%
under_24.5 51.7% over_26.5 35.9% under_26.5 64.1%
over_28.5 25.0% under_28.5 75.0%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 73.5% under_10.5 26.5% over_12.5 56.8%
under_12.5 43.2% over_14.5 39.9% under_14.5 60.1%
team_away
over_10.5 51.1% under_10.5 48.9% over_12.5 32.7%
under_12.5 67.3% over_14.5 18.6% under_14.5 81.4%
most
home 63.6% draw 6.0% away 30.4%
handicap
home_-4.5 37.8% away_+4.5 62.2% home_-2.5 50.7%
away_+2.5 49.3% home_-0.5 63.6% away_+0.5 36.4%
home_+0.5 69.6% away_-0.5 30.4% home_+2.5 80.1%
away_-2.5 19.9% home_+4.5 88.0% away_-4.5 12.0%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 74.0% under_6.5 26.0% over_7.5 61.5%
under_7.5 38.5% over_8.5 48.4% under_8.5 51.6%
over_9.5 35.9% under_9.5 64.1%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 65.6% under_3.5 34.4% over_4.5 47.4%
under_4.5 52.6% over_5.5 31.0% under_5.5 69.0%
team_away
over_3.5 56.2% under_3.5 43.8% over_4.5 37.4%
under_4.5 62.6% over_5.5 22.3% under_5.5 77.7%
most
home 50.4% draw 13.2% away 36.5%
handicap
home_-2.5 25.5% away_+2.5 74.5% home_-0.5 50.4%
away_+0.5 49.6% home_+0.5 63.5% away_-0.5 36.5%
home_+2.5 84.5% away_-2.5 15.5%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 88.0% under_2.5 12.0% over_3.5 74.3%
under_3.5 25.7% over_4.5 57.0% under_4.5 43.0%
over_5.5 39.4% under_5.5 60.6%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 71.7% under_1.5 28.3% over_2.5 46.1%
under_2.5 53.9%
team_away
over_1.5 72.1% under_1.5 27.9% over_2.5 46.7%
under_2.5 53.3%
most
home 40.5% draw 18.2% away 41.3%
handicap
home_-1.5 24.3% away_+1.5 75.7% home_-0.5 40.5%
away_+0.5 59.5% home_+0.5 58.8% away_-0.5 41.3%
home_+1.5 75.1% away_-1.5 24.9%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 87.3% under_20.5 12.7% over_22.5 78.3%
under_22.5 21.7% over_24.5 66.9% under_24.5 33.1%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 83.7% under_9.5 16.3% over_11.5 68.2%
under_11.5 31.8% over_13.5 49.9% under_13.5 50.1%
team_away
over_9.5 83.0% under_9.5 17.0% over_11.5 67.2%
under_11.5 32.8% over_13.5 48.8% under_13.5 51.2%
most
home 47.5% draw 6.6% away 45.9%
handicap
home_-3.5 28.8% away_+3.5 71.2% home_-0.5 47.5%
away_+0.5 52.5% home_+2.5 66.8% away_-2.5 33.2%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 11.7% no 88.3%
home
yes 5.8% no 94.2%
away
yes 6.3% no 93.8%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Ceuta predictions · Celta B predictions · Segunda División

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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Segunda DivisiónCeutaCelta BTrack record