Eldense vs Mallorca: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 5 Sep 2026

Segunda División

Eldense

DLLDL

Full time0-0Sat, 5 Sep 202620:00UK

Mallorca

WDWLW

Model’s top convictions

72%

Over 1.5 goals

71%

Eldense or draw

57%

Draw or Mallorca

Full time6 of 11 calls right

Post-Match Analysis

Eldense 0-0 Mallorca

✕ Result✓ Over 2.5 goals✕ Over 1.5 goals✓ Over 3.5 goals✕ Both teams to score✕ First-half goal✕ Second-half goal✕ Over 9.5 corners✓ Over 3.5 cards✓ Over 24.5 shots✓ Over 7.5 shots on target✓ Red card

6 of 12 published calls on this match were right.

Our most likely call was Eldense at 43.3%, and it was wrong. We called Under 2.5 at 54.7% and it landed (0 goals). We called Over 1.5 at 71.6% and it missed (0 goals). We called Under 3.5 at 76.0% and it landed (0 goals). We called Yes at 50.6% and it missed. We called Yes at 59.0% and it missed. We called Yes at 79.2% and it missed. We called Under 9.5 at 54.6% and it missed (13 corners). We called Over 3.5 at 69.2% and it landed (4 yellow cards). We called Under 24.5 at 50.3% and it landed (19 shots). We called Over 7.5 at 61.7% and it landed (9 shots on target). We called No at 89.0% and it landed.

Match data	Eldense	Mallorca
Goals, 1st half	0	0
Goals, 2nd half	0	0
Shots	8	11
Shots on target	3	6
Corners	5	8
Yellow cards	1	3
Red cards	0	0
Fouls	13	13

Final match data.

Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet

EldenseWin probability

43.3%

Top 3 convictions

Over 1.5 goals71.6%Strong chancePays @ 1.40

Eldense or draw71.3%Strong chancePays @ 1.40

Draw or Mallorca56.7%Good chancePays @ 1.76

Model read

▾

The model leans Eldense at 43% when Eldense host Mallorca in the Segunda División on 5 September 2026. A lean, though, not a lock. Notably, the model is warmer on Eldense than the market (26%). We flag disagreement rather than hide it. No strong lean on goals (45% Over 2.5). The interest, if any, lives elsewhere. The run in: Eldense arrive W0 D3 L3, Mallorca W4 D1 L1. Eldense are newly promoted, a profile the model deliberately prices with caution. Discipline says sit it out: too extreme an outsider (fair 0.26).

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 2.5 goals45.3%@ 2.21

Over 9.5 corners44.8%@ 2.23

Over 10.5 corners34.6%@ 2.89

Medium risk

Over 8.5 corners55.9%@ 1.79

Under 2.5 goals54.7%@ 1.83

Both teams to score50.6%@ 1.98

Random finds

1-1 correct score13.3%@ 7.52

1-0 correct score11.0%@ 9.11

0-0 correct score9.0%@ 11.17

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Eldense

43.3%+17.2%

Draw

28.0%+1.0%

Mallorca

28.7%-18.2%

ModelMarket

too extreme an outsider (fair 0.26)

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.571.6%

Strong chance

Over 2.545.3%

Reasonable chance

BTTS · Yes50.6%

Good chance

Corners markets

Over 8.555.9%

Good chance

Over 9.544.8%

Reasonable chance

Over 10.534.6%

Toss-up

Over 11.525.7%

Low chance

Most cornersEldense57.8%Mallorca31.3%

Shots markets

Over 22.562.6%

Strong chance

Over 24.549.7%

Reasonable chance

Over 26.537.2%

Toss-up

Over 28.526.2%

Low chance

Totals line guide

0.5·1.571.6%2.545.3%3.5·4.5·

Our pre-match focusOver 1.571.6%

Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.

Form & head-to-head

EldenseDLLDL

MallorcaWDWLW

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

Eldense

Mallorca

League position#20 of 22#5 of 22

Record W-D-L0-1-22-0-1

Current streakL1W1

Record, home vs away0-1-00-0-1

Red cards this season00

League averages this season: 2.36 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 42% · BTTS in 42%. Full league tables & stats →

Bookmaker odds

Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.

BookmakerOur fair

Eldense win3.502.31

Draw3.403.57

Mallorca win2.013.48

Over 2.5 goals2.002.21

Under 2.5 goals1.801.83

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Eldense win2.31

Draw3.58

Mallorca win3.48

Both teams to score1.98

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.10

Over 1.5 goals1.40

Over 2.5 goals2.21

Over 3.5 goals4.17

Eldense most2.31

Mallorca most3.48

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.43

Over 8.5 corners1.73

Over 9.5 corners2.20

Over 10.5 corners2.96

Eldense most1.73

Mallorca most3.19

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.18

Over 3.5 cards1.44

Over 4.5 cards1.97

Over 5.5 cards3.00

Eldense most2.57

Mallorca most2.37

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.35

Over 7.5 SoT1.62

Over 8.5 SoT2.06

Over 9.5 SoT2.77

Eldense most1.78

Mallorca most3.20

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.60

Over 24.5 shots2.01

Over 26.5 shots2.69

Over 28.5 shots3.82

Eldense most1.56

Mallorca most3.33

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.25

Over 22.5 fouls1.45

Over 24.5 fouls1.80

All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots on target

Over 6.5	74.1%	Over 7.5	61.7%	Over 8.5	48.5%	Over 9.5	36.0%
Most: Eldense	56.0%	Most: Mallorca	31.2%
Eldense Over 4.2	51.4%	Mallorca Over 4.2	33.4%

Cards

Over 2.5	84.9%	Over 3.5	69.2%	Over 4.5	50.8%
Most: Eldense	38.9%	Most: Mallorca	42.2%
Eldense Over 1.8	67.1%	Mallorca Over 1.8	69.2%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Eldense clean sheet	33.5%
Mallorca clean sheet	24.7%
Eldense win to nil	24.6%
Mallorca win to nil	15.8%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated

1×2

home	43.3%	draw	28.0%	away	28.7%

double_chance

1X	71.3%	12	72.0%	X2	56.7%

dnb

home	60.1%	away	39.9%

btts

yes	50.6%	no	49.4%

clean_sheet

home	33.6%	away	24.7%

win_to_nil

home	24.7%	away	15.8%

winning_margin

home_by_1	22.4%	home_by_2	13.1%	home_by_3plus	7.8%
away_by_1	17.3%	away_by_2	8.0%	away_by_3plus	3.4%

correct_score

0-0	9.0%	0-1	8.4%	0-2	4.9%
0-3	1.8%	0-4	0.5%	0-5	0.1%
1-0	11.0%	1-1	13.3%	1-2	6.9%
1-3	2.5%	1-4	0.7%	1-5	0.2%
2-0	8.1%	2-1	8.8%	2-2	4.8%
2-3	1.8%	2-4	0.5%	2-5	0.1%
3-0	3.8%	3-1	4.1%	3-2	2.3%
3-3	0.8%	3-4	0.2%	3-5	0.1%
4-0	1.3%	4-1	1.4%	4-2	0.8%
4-3	0.3%	4-4	0.1%	4-5	0.0%
5-0	0.4%	5-1	0.4%	5-2	0.2%
5-3	0.1%	5-4	0.0%	5-5	0.0%
other	0.4%

likeliest_score

h	100.0%	a	100.0%	p	13.3%

Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated

total

over_0.5	91.1%	under_0.5	9.0%	over_1.5	71.6%
under_1.5	28.4%	over_2.5	45.3%	under_2.5	54.7%
over_3.5	24.0%	under_3.5	76.0%	over_4.5	10.7%
under_4.5	89.3%	over_5.5	4.1%	under_5.5	95.9%

odd_even

odd	48.4%	even	51.6%

team_home

over_0.5	75.3%	under_0.5	24.7%	over_1.5	40.7%
under_1.5	59.3%	over_2.5	16.6%	under_2.5	83.4%

team_away

over_0.5	66.4%	under_0.5	33.6%	over_1.5	29.7%
under_1.5	70.3%	over_2.5	9.8%	under_2.5	90.2%

most

home	43.3%	draw	28.0%	away	28.7%

handicap

home_-2.5	7.8%	away_+2.5	92.2%	home_-1.5	20.9%
away_+1.5	79.1%	home_-0.5	43.3%	away_+0.5	56.7%
home_+0.5	71.3%	away_-0.5	28.7%	home_+1.5	88.6%
away_-1.5	11.4%	home_+2.5	96.6%	away_-2.5	3.4%

total_exact

exact_0	9.0%	exact_1	19.4%	exact_2	26.4%
exact_3	21.3%	exact_4	13.3%	exact_5	6.6%
exact_6	2.7%	exact_7plus	1.4%

First half range, not a point

1×2

home	21.0%	draw	49.4%	away	29.6%

total

over_0.5	59.0%	under_0.5	41.0%	over_1.5	22.5%
under_1.5	77.5%	over_2.5	6.2%	under_2.5	93.8%

btts

yes	12.7%	no	87.3%

total_exact

exact_0	41.0%	exact_1	36.6%	exact_2	16.3%
exact_3	4.9%	exact_4plus	1.3%

Second half range, not a point

1×2

home	23.9%	draw	35.1%	away	41.1%

total

over_0.5	79.2%	under_0.5	20.8%	over_1.5	46.6%
under_1.5	53.4%	over_2.5	20.9%	under_2.5	79.1%

btts

yes	28.6%	no	71.4%

Half-time / full-time range, not a point

H/H	13.4%	H/D	4.9%	H/A	2.8%
D/H	11.8%	D/D	17.3%	D/A	20.3%
A/H	1.5%	A/D	4.3%	A/A	23.8%

Corners range, not a point

total

over_7.5	70.0%	under_7.5	30.0%	over_8.5	57.8%
under_8.5	42.2%	over_9.5	45.4%	under_9.5	54.6%
over_10.5	33.8%	under_10.5	66.2%	over_11.5	24.0%
under_11.5	76.0%	over_12.5	16.1%	under_12.5	83.9%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_3.5	73.8%	under_3.5	26.3%	over_4.5	58.4%
under_4.5	41.6%	over_5.5	42.9%	under_5.5	57.1%

team_away

over_3.5	55.5%	under_3.5	44.5%	over_4.5	38.0%
under_4.5	62.1%	over_5.5	23.7%	under_5.5	76.3%

most

home	57.9%	draw	10.7%	away	31.3%

handicap

home_-3.5	25.9%	away_+3.5	74.1%	home_-1.5	46.6%
away_+1.5	53.4%	home_-0.5	57.9%	away_+0.5	42.1%
home_+0.5	68.7%	away_-0.5	31.3%	home_+1.5	78.0%
away_-1.5	22.0%	home_+3.5	91.0%	away_-3.5	9.0%

Shots range, not a point

total

over_22.5	62.6%	under_22.5	37.4%	over_24.5	49.7%
under_24.5	50.3%	over_26.5	37.2%	under_26.5	62.8%
over_28.5	26.2%	under_28.5	73.8%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_10.5	74.5%	under_10.5	25.6%	over_12.5	58.0%
under_12.5	42.0%	over_14.5	41.1%	under_14.5	58.9%

team_away

over_10.5	51.8%	under_10.5	48.2%	over_12.5	33.4%
under_12.5	66.6%	over_14.5	19.1%	under_14.5	80.9%

most

home	64.0%	draw	5.9%	away	30.0%

handicap

home_-4.5	38.3%	away_+4.5	61.7%	home_-2.5	51.2%
away_+2.5	48.8%	home_-0.5	64.0%	away_+0.5	36.0%
home_+0.5	70.0%	away_-0.5	30.0%	home_+2.5	80.3%
away_-2.5	19.7%	home_+4.5	88.1%	away_-4.5	11.9%

Shots on target range, not a point

total

over_6.5	74.1%	under_6.5	25.9%	over_7.5	61.7%
under_7.5	38.3%	over_8.5	48.5%	under_8.5	51.5%
over_9.5	36.0%	under_9.5	64.0%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_3.5	69.1%	under_3.5	31.0%	over_4.5	51.4%
under_4.5	48.6%	over_5.5	34.8%	under_5.5	65.2%

team_away

over_3.5	52.1%	under_3.5	47.9%	over_4.5	33.4%
under_4.5	66.6%	over_5.5	19.1%	under_5.5	80.9%

most

home	56.0%	draw	12.7%	away	31.2%

handicap

home_-2.5	30.3%	away_+2.5	69.7%	home_-0.5	56.0%
away_+0.5	44.0%	home_+0.5	68.8%	away_-0.5	31.2%
home_+2.5	87.7%	away_-2.5	12.3%

Cards calibrated

total

over_2.5	84.9%	under_2.5	15.1%	over_3.5	69.2%
under_3.5	30.8%	over_4.5	50.8%	under_4.5	49.2%
over_5.5	33.4%	under_5.5	66.6%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_1.5	67.1%	under_1.5	32.9%	over_2.5	40.7%
under_2.5	59.4%

team_away

over_1.5	69.2%	under_1.5	30.8%	over_2.5	43.1%
under_2.5	56.9%

most

home	38.9%	draw	18.9%	away	42.2%

handicap

home_-1.5	22.4%	away_+1.5	77.6%	home_-0.5	38.9%
away_+0.5	61.2%	home_+0.5	57.8%	away_-0.5	42.2%
home_+1.5	74.9%	away_-1.5	25.1%

Fouls calibrated

total

over_20.5	80.3%	under_20.5	19.7%	over_22.5	68.8%
under_22.5	31.2%	over_24.5	55.6%	under_24.5	44.4%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_9.5	79.2%	under_9.5	20.8%	over_11.5	61.8%
under_11.5	38.2%	over_13.5	42.9%	under_13.5	57.1%

team_away

over_9.5	76.3%	under_9.5	23.7%	over_11.5	57.9%
under_11.5	42.1%	over_13.5	38.8%	under_13.5	61.2%

most

home	49.5%	draw	6.8%	away	43.7%

handicap

home_-3.5	29.8%	away_+3.5	70.2%	home_-0.5	49.5%
away_+0.5	50.5%	home_+2.5	69.2%	away_-2.5	30.8%

Red card range, not a point

any

yes	11.0%	no	89.0%

home

yes	5.4%	no	94.6%

away

yes	5.9%	no	94.1%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Eldense predictions · Mallorca predictions · Segunda División

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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