Premier League
Sunderland vs 
Fulham Cards
Result
We called Over 3.5 at 53.1% and it missed (2 in the match). We called No at 88.6% and it landed (0 in the match).
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 53.1%, its strongest read on the Cards market. The total-cards ladder runs from 73.5% for over 2.5 to 18.8% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 53.1%. Head to head on cards, Fulham are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 46.0%, with a level count at 21.0%. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 73.5% | 26.5% |
| 3.5 cards | 53.1% | 46.9% |
| 4.5 cards | 33.7% | 66.3% |
| 5.5 cards | 18.8% | 81.2% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
52.1%
25.5%
61.4%
34.4%
Card handicap
| Sunderland line | Sunderland | Fulham |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 16.6% | 83.4% |
| -0.5 | 33.1% | 67.0% |
| +0.5 | 54.0% | 46.0% |
| +1.5 | 73.6% | 26.4% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 58.3% | 41.8% |
| 22.5 fouls | 41.9% | 58.1% |
| 24.5 fouls | 27.4% | 72.6% |
Card markets are softer and less efficiently priced than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Sunderland vs Fulham. The model leans toward Fulham for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
53.1%Over 3.5 cards11.4%Any red card52.1%Sunderland over 1.5 cards61.4%Fulham over 1.5 cards41.9%Over 22.5 foulsSplit by side, Sunderland over 1.5 cards sits at 52.1% and Fulham at 61.4%. A red card for either side is rated at 11.4% (Sunderland 9.1%, Fulham 2.5%).
Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Sunderland vs Fulham?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 53.1% for Sunderland vs Fulham.
Will there be a red card in Sunderland vs Fulham?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 11.4%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Sunderland vs Fulham?
Before kickoff, the model rated Fulham to pick up more cards at 46.0%, with a level count at 21.0%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 11,059 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 13 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Premier League, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.