ChampionshipStoke vs Charlton Corners
Result
We called Over 9.5 at 57.7% and it missed (8 in the match).
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 9.5 corners at 55.8%, its strongest read on the Corners market. Line by line, the read runs from 79.3% for over 7.5 to 25.5% for over 12.5, with over 10.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 46.0%. Between the two sides, Stoke are the model’s pick to win the corner count at 62.8%, with a level count at 9.6%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Corners
Total corners, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 7.5 corners | 79.3% | 20.7% |
| 8.5 corners | 69.1% | 30.9% |
| 9.5 corners | 57.7% | 42.3% |
| 10.5 corners | 46.0% | 54.0% |
| 11.5 corners | 35.0% | 65.0% |
| 12.5 corners | 25.5% | 74.5% |
Who wins the corner count
Team corner lines
81.7%
68.8%
54.4%
59.8%
42.3%
27.5%
Corner handicap
| Stoke line | Stoke | Charlton |
|---|---|---|
| -3.5 | 31.9% | 68.1% |
| -1.5 | 52.4% | 47.6% |
| -0.5 | 62.8% | 37.2% |
| +0.5 | 72.5% | 27.5% |
Corner counts follow pressure and wide play, below are the model total-corner probabilities. It leans to Stoke.
In-depth analysis
Split by side, Stoke over 4.5 corners sits at 68.8% and Charlton at 42.3%.
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. We grade every call after the match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many corners in Stoke vs Charlton?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 9.5 total corners at 57.7% for Stoke vs Charlton.
Which team will win the corner count in Stoke vs Charlton?
Before kickoff, the model rated Stoke to win the corner count at 62.8%, with a level count at 9.6%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Corners accuracy
How our Corners calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 23,691 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Corners actually happened 54.1% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 13 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Corners calls
The model’s most recent graded Corners predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Championship, Corners
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.