Burnley vs Bristol City: model prediction
ChampionshipOver 1.5 goals
Draw or Bristol City
Over 8.5 corners
Full time7 of 11 calls right
Our most likely call was Bristol City at 42.8%, and it was correct. We called Under 2.5 at 52.1% and it missed (3 goals). We called Over 1.5 at 73.7% and it landed (3 goals). We called Under 3.5 at 73.9% and it landed (3 goals). We called Yes at 52.8% and it landed. We called Yes at 76.8% and it missed. We called Yes at 71.9% and it landed. We called Over 9.5 at 55.1% and it landed (13 corners). We called Over 3.5 at 52.1% and it missed (3 yellow cards). We called Under 24.5 at 51.6% and it landed (23 shots). We called Over 7.5 at 53.2% and it missed (6 shots on target). We called No at 86.5% and it landed.
| Match data | Burnley | Bristol City |
|---|---|---|
| Goals, 1st half | 0 | 0 |
| Goals, 2nd half | 1 | 2 |
| Shots | 8 | 15 |
| Shots on target | 2 | 4 |
| Corners | 5 | 8 |
| Yellow cards | 3 | 0 |
| Red cards | 0 | 0 |
| Fouls | 13 | 7 |
Final match data.
Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.
Prediction summary
Top 3 convictions
Model read
▾
A measured edge to Bristol City: 43% is the model's line for this Championship meeting on 5 September 2026. Notably, the model is warmer on Bristol City than the market (22%). We flag disagreement rather than hide it. No strong lean on goals (48% Over 2.5). The interest, if any, lives elsewhere. Team news worth noting: Burnley have Josh Cullen, Zeki Amdouni, Connor Roberts, Axel Tuanzebe, Mike Tresor, Hannibal Mejbri, Jordan Beyer ruled out. Head to head, the last 5 meetings gave 5 wins for Burnley, 0 draws and 0 for Bristol City, averaging 2.4 goals a game. As a promoted side, Burnley carry exactly the structural uncertainty our priors were built for. The run in: Burnley arrive W2 D2 L2, Bristol City W3 D1 L2. Discipline says sit it out: too extreme an outsider (fair 0.23).
Value & higher-risk angles
Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.
Model vs market
29.8%-22.4%
27.4%+2.1%
42.8%+20.3%
too extreme an outsider (fair 0.23)
Goals markets
Strong chance
Reasonable chance
Good chance
Corners markets
Strong chance
Good chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Shots markets
Strong chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Low chance
Totals line guide
Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Burnley 5 · 0 draws · Bristol City 0 · 2.4 goals/game.
Season stats
Season 2026/27, real results only
BurnleyBristol CityLeague averages this season: 2.94 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 67% · BTTS in 73%. Full league tables & stats →
Bookmaker odds
Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Goals
Corners
Cards
Shots on target
Shots
Fouls
Team news
Most likely availability, voted across independent sources. A model input, not a confirmed lineup.
- Josh Cullen, Zeki Amdouni, Connor Roberts, Axel Tuanzebe, Mike Tresor, Hannibal Mejbri, Jordan BeyerBurnleyOut
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots on target
| Over 6.5 | 66.2% | Over 7.5 | 53.2% | Over 8.5 | 40.5% | Over 9.5 | 29.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Burnley | 52.2% | Most: Bristol City | 34.8% | ||||
| Burnley Over 4.2 | 43.1% | Bristol City Over 4.2 | 30.7% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 | 72.7% | Over 3.5 | 52.1% | Over 4.5 | 32.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Burnley | 32.3% | Most: Bristol City | 46.6% | ||
| Burnley Over 1.8 | 50.8% | Bristol City Over 1.8 | 61.2% |
Clean sheet & win to nil
| Burnley clean sheet | 23.8% |
|---|---|
| Bristol City clean sheet | 31.4% |
| Burnley win to nil | 15.7% |
| Bristol City win to nil | 23.3% |
Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home | 29.8% | draw | 27.4% | away | 42.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
double_chance
| 1X | 57.2% | 12 | 72.6% | X2 | 70.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
dnb
| home | 41.0% | away | 59.0% |
|---|
btts
| yes | 52.8% | no | 47.2% |
|---|
clean_sheet
| home | 23.8% | away | 31.5% |
|---|
win_to_nil
| home | 15.7% | away | 23.4% |
|---|
winning_margin
| home_by_1 | 17.5% | home_by_2 | 8.4% | home_by_3plus | 3.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_by_1 | 21.9% | away_by_2 | 13.0% | away_by_3plus | 8.0% |
correct_score
| 0-0 | 8.1% | 0-1 | 10.2% | 0-2 | 7.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | 3.7% | 0-4 | 1.3% | 0-5 | 0.4% |
| 1-0 | 8.1% | 1-1 | 13.1% | 1-2 | 8.9% |
| 1-3 | 4.3% | 1-4 | 1.5% | 1-5 | 0.4% |
| 2-0 | 5.0% | 2-1 | 7.2% | 2-2 | 5.1% |
| 2-3 | 2.5% | 2-4 | 0.9% | 2-5 | 0.3% |
| 3-0 | 1.9% | 3-1 | 2.8% | 3-2 | 2.0% |
| 3-3 | 1.0% | 3-4 | 0.3% | 3-5 | 0.1% |
| 4-0 | 0.6% | 4-1 | 0.8% | 4-2 | 0.6% |
| 4-3 | 0.3% | 4-4 | 0.1% | 4-5 | 0.0% |
| 5-0 | 0.1% | 5-1 | 0.2% | 5-2 | 0.1% |
| 5-3 | 0.1% | 5-4 | 0.0% | 5-5 | 0.0% |
| other | 0.5% |
likeliest_score
| h | 100.0% | a | 100.0% | p | 13.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 | 91.9% | under_0.5 | 8.1% | over_1.5 | 73.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 26.3% | over_2.5 | 47.9% | under_2.5 | 52.1% |
| over_3.5 | 26.2% | under_3.5 | 73.9% | over_4.5 | 12.1% |
| under_4.5 | 87.9% | over_5.5 | 4.8% | under_5.5 | 95.2% |
odd_even
| odd | 48.5% | even | 51.5% |
|---|
team_home
| over_0.5 | 68.5% | under_0.5 | 31.5% | over_1.5 | 32.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 67.9% | over_2.5 | 11.1% | under_2.5 | 88.9% |
team_away
| over_0.5 | 76.2% | under_0.5 | 23.8% | over_1.5 | 42.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 58.0% | over_2.5 | 17.5% | under_2.5 | 82.5% |
most
| home | 29.8% | draw | 27.4% | away | 42.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 3.8% | away_+2.5 | 96.2% | home_-1.5 | 12.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 87.8% | home_-0.5 | 29.8% | away_+0.5 | 70.2% |
| home_+0.5 | 57.2% | away_-0.5 | 42.8% | home_+1.5 | 79.1% |
| away_-1.5 | 20.9% | home_+2.5 | 92.0% | away_-2.5 | 8.0% |
total_exact
| exact_0 | 8.1% | exact_1 | 18.2% | exact_2 | 25.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 21.7% | exact_4 | 14.1% | exact_5 | 7.3% |
| exact_6 | 3.1% | exact_7plus | 1.7% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 35.0% | draw | 37.2% | away | 27.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 76.8% | under_0.5 | 23.2% | over_1.5 | 42.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 57.1% | over_2.5 | 18.1% | under_2.5 | 81.9% |
btts
| yes | 26.7% | no | 73.3% |
|---|
total_exact
| exact_0 | 23.2% | exact_1 | 33.9% | exact_2 | 24.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 12.0% | exact_4plus | 6.1% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 36.1% | draw | 40.3% | away | 23.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 71.9% | under_0.5 | 28.2% | over_1.5 | 36.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 63.8% | over_2.5 | 13.6% | under_2.5 | 86.5% |
btts
| yes | 21.5% | no | 78.5% |
|---|
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H | 28.9% | H/D | 4.7% | H/A | 1.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D/H | 13.5% | D/D | 15.0% | D/A | 8.8% |
| A/H | 2.4% | A/D | 5.6% | A/A | 19.8% |
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 | 77.5% | under_7.5 | 22.5% | over_8.5 | 66.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_8.5 | 33.1% | over_9.5 | 55.1% | under_9.5 | 44.9% |
| over_10.5 | 43.4% | under_10.5 | 56.6% | over_11.5 | 32.6% |
| under_11.5 | 67.4% | over_12.5 | 23.4% | under_12.5 | 76.6% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 78.0% | under_3.5 | 22.0% | over_4.5 | 63.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 36.2% | over_5.5 | 48.8% | under_5.5 | 51.2% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 62.5% | under_3.5 | 37.5% | over_4.5 | 45.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 54.8% | over_5.5 | 30.1% | under_5.5 | 69.9% |
most
| home | 57.3% | draw | 10.3% | away | 32.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 26.6% | away_+3.5 | 73.4% | home_-1.5 | 46.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 53.5% | home_-0.5 | 57.3% | away_+0.5 | 42.7% |
| home_+0.5 | 67.6% | away_-0.5 | 32.4% | home_+1.5 | 76.7% |
| away_-1.5 | 23.3% | home_+3.5 | 89.8% | away_-3.5 | 10.3% |
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 | 61.0% | under_22.5 | 39.0% | over_24.5 | 48.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_24.5 | 51.6% | over_26.5 | 36.3% | under_26.5 | 63.7% |
| over_28.5 | 25.6% | under_28.5 | 74.4% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_10.5 | 72.3% | under_10.5 | 27.7% | over_12.5 | 55.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 44.2% | over_14.5 | 39.4% | under_14.5 | 60.6% |
team_away
| over_10.5 | 51.9% | under_10.5 | 48.1% | over_12.5 | 33.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 66.2% | over_14.5 | 19.8% | under_14.5 | 80.2% |
most
| home | 62.3% | draw | 5.9% | away | 31.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-4.5 | 37.0% | away_+4.5 | 63.0% | home_-2.5 | 49.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+2.5 | 50.4% | home_-0.5 | 62.3% | away_+0.5 | 37.7% |
| home_+0.5 | 68.2% | away_-0.5 | 31.8% | home_+2.5 | 78.7% |
| away_-2.5 | 21.3% | home_+4.5 | 86.8% | away_-4.5 | 13.2% |
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 | 66.2% | under_6.5 | 33.8% | over_7.5 | 53.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_7.5 | 46.8% | over_8.5 | 40.5% | under_8.5 | 59.5% |
| over_9.5 | 29.3% | under_9.5 | 70.7% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 60.6% | under_3.5 | 39.4% | over_4.5 | 43.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 56.9% | over_5.5 | 28.0% | under_5.5 | 72.0% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 48.3% | under_3.5 | 51.7% | over_4.5 | 30.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 69.3% | over_5.5 | 17.8% | under_5.5 | 82.2% |
most
| home | 52.2% | draw | 13.0% | away | 34.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 27.2% | away_+2.5 | 72.8% | home_-0.5 | 52.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 47.8% | home_+0.5 | 65.2% | away_-0.5 | 34.8% |
| home_+2.5 | 85.5% | away_-2.5 | 14.5% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 | 72.7% | under_2.5 | 27.4% | over_3.5 | 52.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_3.5 | 47.9% | over_4.5 | 32.7% | under_4.5 | 67.3% |
| over_5.5 | 18.0% | under_5.5 | 82.0% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_1.5 | 50.8% | under_1.5 | 49.2% | over_2.5 | 24.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 75.6% |
team_away
| over_1.5 | 61.2% | under_1.5 | 38.8% | over_2.5 | 34.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 65.9% |
most
| home | 32.3% | draw | 21.1% | away | 46.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-1.5 | 16.0% | away_+1.5 | 84.0% | home_-0.5 | 32.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 67.7% | home_+0.5 | 53.4% | away_-0.5 | 46.6% |
| home_+1.5 | 73.2% | away_-1.5 | 26.8% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 | 56.3% | under_20.5 | 43.7% | over_22.5 | 40.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_22.5 | 59.5% | over_24.5 | 26.6% | under_24.5 | 73.4% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_9.5 | 60.7% | under_9.5 | 39.3% | over_11.5 | 38.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 61.7% | over_13.5 | 20.3% | under_13.5 | 79.7% |
team_away
| over_9.5 | 62.7% | under_9.5 | 37.3% | over_11.5 | 40.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 59.6% | over_13.5 | 22.0% | under_13.5 | 78.0% |
most
| home | 44.5% | draw | 8.1% | away | 47.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 22.8% | away_+3.5 | 77.2% | home_-0.5 | 44.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 55.5% | home_+2.5 | 68.0% | away_-2.5 | 32.0% |
Red card range, not a point
any
| yes | 13.5% | no | 86.5% |
|---|
home
| yes | 6.3% | no | 93.7% |
|---|
away
| yes | 7.7% | no | 92.3% |
|---|
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.
Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.
We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.
Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).
More: Burnley predictions · Bristol City predictions · Championship
Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.
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