St Pauli vs Kaiserslautern prediction & probabilities (2026-08-30)

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St Pauli vs Kaiserslautern: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 29 Aug 2026

2. Bundesliga
St Pauli

LWWDD

Full time1-2Sun, 30 Aug 202612:30UK
Kaiserslautern

LWWDD

Model’s top convictions

77%

Over 1.5 goals

69%

Draw or Kaiserslautern

63%

Over 8.5 corners

Full time10 of 11 calls right

Post-Match Analysis

St Pauli 1-2 Kaiserslautern
✓ Result✓ Over 2.5 goals✓ Over 1.5 goals✓ Over 3.5 goals✓ Both teams to score✓ First-half goal✓ Second-half goal✕ Over 9.5 corners✓ Over 3.5 cards✓ Over 24.5 shots✓ Over 7.5 shots on target✓ Red card
11 of 12 published calls on this match were right.

Our most likely call was Kaiserslautern at 42.1%, and it was correct. We called Over 2.5 at 52.2% and it landed (3 goals). We called Over 1.5 at 76.8% and it landed (3 goals). We called Under 3.5 at 70.0% and it landed (3 goals). We called Yes at 56.3% and it landed. We called Yes at 68.1% and it landed. We called Yes at 79.8% and it landed. We called Over 9.5 at 54.1% and it missed (9 corners). We called Over 3.5 at 64.8% and it landed (7 yellow cards). We called Over 24.5 at 61.5% and it landed (32 shots). We called Over 7.5 at 69.4% and it landed (11 shots on target). We called No at 88.9% and it landed.

Match data St Pauli Kaiserslautern
Goals, 1st half 0 1
Goals, 2nd half 1 1
Shots 21 11
Shots on target 7 4
Corners 4 5
Yellow cards 3 4
Red cards 0 0
Fouls 9 13

Final match data.

Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
KaiserslauternWin probability
42.1%
Top 3 convictions

Over 1.5 goals76.8%Strong chancePays @ 1.30
Draw or Kaiserslautern68.6%Strong chancePays @ 1.46
Over 8.5 corners63.4%Strong chancePays @ 1.58

Model read

▾

St Pauli versus Kaiserslautern on 30 August 2026 tilts towards Kaiserslautern in our numbers (42%), with plenty left over for the other outcomes. The numbers that frame it: • Notably, the model is warmer on Kaiserslautern than the market (24%). We flag disagreement rather than hide it. • Totals sit close to the fence: 52% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 56%. • As a promoted side, St Pauli carry exactly the structural uncertainty our priors were built for. • Form guide over the last six: St Pauli W3 D2 L1, Kaiserslautern W2 D2 L2. The recent series reads 3 wins for St Pauli, 1 draws and 1 for Kaiserslautern over 5 games, 2.2 goals on average. Discipline says sit it out: too extreme an outsider (fair 0.24).

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 10.5 corners42.2%@ 2.37
Kaiserslautern win42.1%@ 2.38
Over 11.5 corners32.6%@ 3.07
Medium risk

St Pauli or draw57.9%@ 1.73
Both teams to score56.3%@ 1.78
Over 9.5 corners52.7%@ 1.90
Random finds

1-1 correct score12.5%@ 7.97
1-2 correct score9.0%@ 11.17
0-1 correct score8.9%@ 11.27

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

St Pauli

31.4%-20.2%

Draw

26.5%+1.8%

KAI

42.1%+18.4%

ModelMarket

too extreme an outsider (fair 0.24)

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.576.8%

Strong chance

Over 2.552.2%

Good chance

BTTS · Yes56.3%

Good chance

Corners markets

Over 8.563.4%

Strong chance

Over 9.552.7%

Good chance

Over 10.542.2%

Reasonable chance

Over 11.532.6%

Toss-up

Most cornersSt Pauli57.6%Kaiserslautern31.9%

Shots markets

Over 22.573.3%

Strong chance

Over 24.561.5%

Strong chance

Over 26.548.8%

Reasonable chance

Over 28.536.6%

Toss-up

Totals line guide

0.5·1.576.8%2.552.2%3.5·4.5·
Our pre-match focusOver 1.576.8%

Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.

Form & head-to-head

St PauliLWWDD
KaiserslauternLWWDD

Last 5 meetings: St Pauli 3 · 1 draws · Kaiserslautern 1 · 2.2 goals/game.

2024-01-20St Pauli 2-0 Kaiserslautern
2023-07-29Kaiserslautern 1-2 St Pauli
2023-02-12St Pauli 1-0 Kaiserslautern
2022-08-07Kaiserslautern 2-1 St Pauli
2018-03-17Kaiserslautern 1-1 St Pauli

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

St PauliKaiserslautern
League position#13 of 18#14 of 18
Record W-D-L0-2-00-2-0
Current streakD2D2
Record, home vs away0-1-00-1-0
Red cards this season00

Full league tables & stats →

Bookmaker odds

Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.

BookmakerOur fair
St Pauli win1.853.18
Draw3.753.77
Kaiserslautern win3.902.38
Over 2.5 goals1.651.92
Under 2.5 goals2.202.09

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

St Pauli win3.18
Draw3.78
Kaiserslautern win2.38
Both teams to score1.78

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.07
Over 1.5 goals1.30
Over 2.5 goals1.92
Over 3.5 goals3.33
St Pauli most3.18
Kaiserslautern most2.38

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.30
Over 8.5 corners1.52
Over 9.5 corners1.85
Over 10.5 corners2.36
St Pauli most1.73
Kaiserslautern most3.13

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.22
Over 3.5 cards1.54
Over 4.5 cards2.19
Over 5.5 cards3.47
St Pauli most2.85
Kaiserslautern most2.19

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.25
Over 7.5 SoT1.44
Over 8.5 SoT1.74
Over 9.5 SoT2.20
St Pauli most1.70
Kaiserslautern most3.38

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.36
Over 24.5 shots1.63
Over 26.5 shots2.05
Over 28.5 shots2.74
St Pauli most1.57
Kaiserslautern most3.26

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.35
Over 22.5 fouls1.64
Over 24.5 fouls2.15
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots on target

Over 6.5 80.0% Over 7.5 69.4% Over 8.5 57.6% Over 9.5 45.5%
Most: St Pauli 58.9% Most: Kaiserslautern 29.6%
St Pauli Over 4.2 59.2% Kaiserslautern Over 4.2 37.9%

Cards

Over 2.5 82.0% Over 3.5 64.8% Over 4.5 45.7%
Most: St Pauli 35.0% Most: Kaiserslautern 45.6%
St Pauli Over 1.8 61.5% Kaiserslautern Over 1.8 68.4%

Clean sheet & win to nil

St Pauli clean sheet 22.3%
Kaiserslautern clean sheet 28.1%
St Pauli win to nil 15.4%
Kaiserslautern win to nil 21.2%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 31.4% draw 26.5% away 42.1%
double_chance
1X 57.9% 12 73.5% X2 68.6%
dnb
home 42.7% away 57.3%
btts
yes 56.3% no 43.7%
clean_sheet
home 22.3% away 28.3%
win_to_nil
home 15.4% away 21.3%
winning_margin
home_by_1 17.7% home_by_2 9.1% home_by_3plus 4.6%
away_by_1 21.1% away_by_2 12.8% away_by_3plus 8.2%
correct_score
0-0 6.9% 0-1 8.9% 0-2 7.1%
0-3 3.5% 0-4 1.3% 0-5 0.4%
1-0 7.4% 1-1 12.5% 1-2 9.0%
1-3 4.5% 1-4 1.7% 1-5 0.5%
2-0 5.0% 2-1 7.6% 2-2 5.7%
2-3 2.8% 2-4 1.1% 2-5 0.3%
3-0 2.1% 3-1 3.2% 3-2 2.4%
3-3 1.2% 3-4 0.4% 3-5 0.1%
4-0 0.7% 4-1 1.0% 4-2 0.8%
4-3 0.4% 4-4 0.1% 4-5 0.0%
5-0 0.2% 5-1 0.3% 5-2 0.2%
5-3 0.1% 5-4 0.0% 5-5 0.0%
other 0.6%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 12.5%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 93.1% under_0.5 6.9% over_1.5 76.8%
under_1.5 23.2% over_2.5 52.2% under_2.5 47.8%
over_3.5 30.0% under_3.5 70.0% over_4.5 14.7%
under_4.5 85.3% over_5.5 6.2% under_5.5 93.8%
odd_even
odd 48.6% even 51.4%
team_home
over_0.5 71.7% under_0.5 28.3% over_1.5 36.1%
under_1.5 63.9% over_2.5 13.5% under_2.5 86.5%
team_away
over_0.5 77.7% under_0.5 22.3% over_1.5 44.2%
under_1.5 55.8% over_2.5 19.1% under_2.5 80.9%
most
home 31.4% draw 26.5% away 42.1%
handicap
home_-2.5 4.6% away_+2.5 95.4% home_-1.5 13.7%
away_+1.5 86.3% home_-0.5 31.4% away_+0.5 68.6%
home_+0.5 57.9% away_-0.5 42.1% home_+1.5 79.0%
away_-1.5 21.0% home_+2.5 91.8% away_-2.5 8.2%
total_exact
exact_0 6.9% exact_1 16.2% exact_2 24.7%
exact_3 22.2% exact_4 15.3% exact_5 8.5%
exact_6 3.9% exact_7plus 2.3%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 40.0% draw 42.1% away 18.0%
total
over_0.5 68.1% under_0.5 31.9% over_1.5 31.7%
under_1.5 68.3% over_2.5 10.9% under_2.5 89.1%
btts
yes 17.3% no 82.7%
total_exact
exact_0 31.9% exact_1 36.4% exact_2 20.8%
exact_3 8.0% exact_4plus 2.9%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 32.8% draw 35.3% away 31.9%
total
over_0.5 79.8% under_0.5 20.2% over_1.5 47.6%
under_1.5 52.4% over_2.5 21.7% under_2.5 78.3%
btts
yes 30.3% no 69.7%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 30.2% H/D 6.8% H/A 3.0%
D/H 13.8% D/D 14.9% D/A 13.4%
A/H 1.7% A/D 3.5% A/A 12.8%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 76.8% under_7.5 23.2% over_8.5 65.9%
under_8.5 34.1% over_9.5 54.1% under_9.5 45.9%
over_10.5 42.4% under_10.5 57.6% over_11.5 31.7%
under_11.5 68.3% over_12.5 22.6% under_12.5 77.4%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 77.8% under_3.5 22.2% over_4.5 63.6%
under_4.5 36.4% over_5.5 48.5% under_5.5 51.5%
team_away
over_3.5 61.5% under_3.5 38.5% over_4.5 44.2%
under_4.5 55.9% over_5.5 29.1% under_5.5 70.9%
most
home 57.8% draw 10.3% away 31.9%
handicap
home_-3.5 26.9% away_+3.5 73.1% home_-1.5 46.9%
away_+1.5 53.1% home_-0.5 57.8% away_+0.5 42.2%
home_+0.5 68.1% away_-0.5 31.9% home_+1.5 77.2%
away_-1.5 22.8% home_+3.5 90.1% away_-3.5 9.9%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 73.3% under_22.5 26.7% over_24.5 61.5%
under_24.5 38.6% over_26.5 48.8% under_26.5 51.2%
over_28.5 36.6% under_28.5 63.4%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 80.6% under_10.5 19.4% over_12.5 65.6%
under_12.5 34.4% over_14.5 48.9% under_14.5 51.1%
team_away
over_10.5 60.9% under_10.5 39.1% over_12.5 42.1%
under_12.5 57.9% over_14.5 25.9% under_14.5 74.1%
most
home 63.5% draw 5.8% away 30.6%
handicap
home_-4.5 38.3% away_+4.5 61.7% home_-2.5 51.0%
away_+2.5 49.0% home_-0.5 63.5% away_+0.5 36.5%
home_+0.5 69.4% away_-0.5 30.6% home_+2.5 79.6%
away_-2.5 20.4% home_+4.5 87.4% away_-4.5 12.6%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 80.0% under_6.5 20.0% over_7.5 69.4%
under_7.5 30.6% over_8.5 57.6% under_8.5 42.4%
over_9.5 45.5% under_9.5 54.5%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 74.9% under_3.5 25.1% over_4.5 59.2%
under_4.5 40.8% over_5.5 43.3% under_5.5 56.7%
team_away
over_3.5 56.0% under_3.5 44.0% over_4.5 37.9%
under_4.5 62.2% over_5.5 23.2% under_5.5 76.8%
most
home 58.9% draw 11.5% away 29.6%
handicap
home_-2.5 34.8% away_+2.5 65.2% home_-0.5 58.9%
away_+0.5 41.1% home_+0.5 70.4% away_-0.5 29.6%
home_+2.5 87.6% away_-2.5 12.4%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 82.0% under_2.5 18.0% over_3.5 64.8%
under_3.5 35.2% over_4.5 45.8% under_4.5 54.3%
over_5.5 28.8% under_5.5 71.2%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 61.5% under_1.5 38.5% over_2.5 34.5%
under_2.5 65.5%
team_away
over_1.5 68.4% under_1.5 31.6% over_2.5 42.1%
under_2.5 57.9%
most
home 35.1% draw 19.4% away 45.6%
handicap
home_-1.5 19.1% away_+1.5 80.9% home_-0.5 35.1%
away_+0.5 65.0% home_+0.5 54.4% away_-0.5 45.6%
home_+1.5 72.6% away_-1.5 27.4%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 74.2% under_20.5 25.8% over_22.5 60.8%
under_22.5 39.2% over_24.5 46.6% under_24.5 53.4%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 74.1% under_9.5 25.9% over_11.5 54.5%
under_11.5 45.5% over_13.5 35.0% under_13.5 65.0%
team_away
over_9.5 73.1% under_9.5 27.0% over_11.5 53.2%
under_11.5 46.8% over_13.5 33.8% under_13.5 66.2%
most
home 47.3% draw 7.2% away 45.5%
handicap
home_-3.5 27.1% away_+3.5 72.9% home_-0.5 47.3%
away_+0.5 52.7% home_+2.5 68.3% away_-2.5 31.7%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 11.1% no 88.9%
home
yes 7.1% no 92.9%
away
yes 4.3% no 95.7%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: St Pauli predictions · Kaiserslautern predictions · 2. Bundesliga

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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2. BundesligaSt PauliKaiserslauternTrack record