Barnet vs Cheltenham: model prediction
League TwoBarnet or draw
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Full time2 of 2 calls right
Our most likely call was Barnet at 62.3%, and it was wrong. We called Over 2.5 at 61.6% and it landed (4 goals). We called Yes at 57.4% and it landed.
Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.
Prediction summary
Top 3 convictions
Model read
▾
The numbers leave little room for romance here: Barnet at 62% against Cheltenham, League Two, 29 August 2026. Bookmakers see it the same way, 60% on Barnet, and agreement is historically when our numbers are most reliable. The goals profile is lively: Over 2.5 sits at 62% with both teams to score at 57%. The run in: Barnet arrive W6 D0 L0, Cheltenham W2 D0 L4. Head to head, the last 5 meetings gave 2 wins for Barnet, 2 draws and 1 for Cheltenham, averaging 1.8 goals a game. Discipline says sit it out: value_gap +0.022 <= 0.03.
Value & higher-risk angles
Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.
Model vs market
62.3%+2.2%
20.9%-2.6%
16.8%+0.4%
value_gap +0.022 <= 0.03
Goals markets
High probability
Strong chance
Good chance
Corners markets
Strong chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Toss-up
Shots markets
Good chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Low chance
Totals line guide
Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Barnet 2 · 2 draws · Cheltenham 1 · 1.8 goals/game.
Season stats
Season 2026/27, real results only
League averages this season: 2.42 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 46% · BTTS in 46%. Full league tables & stats →
Bookmaker odds
Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Goals
Corners
Cards
Shots on target
Shots
Fouls
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots on target
| Over 6.5 | 65.1% | Over 7.5 | 52.4% | Over 8.5 | 40.0% | Over 9.5 | 29.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Barnet | 58.1% | Most: Cheltenham | 29.6% | ||||
| Barnet Over 4.2 | 46.6% | Cheltenham Over 4.2 | 26.3% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 | 66.5% | Over 3.5 | 44.7% | Over 4.5 | 26.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Barnet | 32.7% | Most: Cheltenham | 45.0% | ||
| Barnet Over 1.8 | 46.3% | Cheltenham Over 1.8 | 55.5% |
Clean sheet & win to nil
| Barnet clean sheet | 34.7% |
|---|---|
| Cheltenham clean sheet | 11.7% |
| Barnet win to nil | 30.0% |
| Cheltenham win to nil | 7.1% |
Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home | 62.3% | draw | 20.9% | away | 16.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
double_chance
| 1X | 83.2% | 12 | 79.1% | X2 | 37.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
dnb
| home | 78.7% | away | 21.3% |
|---|
btts
| yes | 57.4% | no | 42.6% |
|---|
clean_sheet
| home | 35.5% | away | 11.7% |
|---|
win_to_nil
| home | 30.9% | away | 7.1% |
|---|
winning_margin
| home_by_1 | 22.8% | home_by_2 | 18.9% | home_by_3plus | 20.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_by_1 | 10.8% | away_by_2 | 4.4% | away_by_3plus | 1.7% |
correct_score
| 0-0 | 4.6% | 0-1 | 3.9% | 0-2 | 2.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | 0.8% | 0-4 | 0.2% | 0-5 | 0.0% |
| 1-0 | 8.5% | 1-1 | 9.7% | 1-2 | 4.8% |
| 1-3 | 1.6% | 1-4 | 0.4% | 1-5 | 0.1% |
| 2-0 | 9.5% | 2-1 | 9.9% | 2-2 | 5.1% |
| 2-3 | 1.8% | 2-4 | 0.5% | 2-5 | 0.1% |
| 3-0 | 6.8% | 3-1 | 7.1% | 3-2 | 3.7% |
| 3-3 | 1.3% | 3-4 | 0.3% | 3-5 | 0.1% |
| 4-0 | 3.7% | 4-1 | 3.8% | 4-2 | 2.0% |
| 4-3 | 0.7% | 4-4 | 0.2% | 4-5 | 0.0% |
| 5-0 | 1.6% | 5-1 | 1.6% | 5-2 | 0.9% |
| 5-3 | 0.3% | 5-4 | 0.1% | 5-5 | 0.0% |
| other | 2.4% |
likeliest_score
| h | 200.0% | a | 100.0% | p | 9.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 | 95.4% | under_0.5 | 4.6% | over_1.5 | 83.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 17.0% | over_2.5 | 61.6% | under_2.5 | 38.4% |
| over_3.5 | 39.4% | under_3.5 | 60.6% | over_4.5 | 21.7% |
| under_4.5 | 78.3% | over_5.5 | 10.4% | under_5.5 | 89.6% |
odd_even
| odd | 49.0% | even | 51.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_0.5 | 88.3% | under_0.5 | 11.7% | over_1.5 | 63.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 36.8% | over_2.5 | 36.3% | under_2.5 | 63.7% |
team_away
| over_0.5 | 64.5% | under_0.5 | 35.5% | over_1.5 | 27.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 72.2% | over_2.5 | 8.7% | under_2.5 | 91.3% |
most
| home | 62.3% | draw | 20.9% | away | 16.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 20.6% | away_+2.5 | 79.4% | home_-1.5 | 39.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 60.5% | home_-0.5 | 62.3% | away_+0.5 | 37.7% |
| home_+0.5 | 83.2% | away_-0.5 | 16.8% | home_+1.5 | 93.9% |
| away_-1.5 | 6.1% | home_+2.5 | 98.3% | away_-2.5 | 1.7% |
total_exact
| exact_0 | 4.6% | exact_1 | 12.3% | exact_2 | 21.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 22.2% | exact_4 | 17.7% | exact_5 | 11.3% |
| exact_6 | 6.0% | exact_7plus | 4.4% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 55.6% | draw | 32.3% | away | 12.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 78.2% | under_0.5 | 21.8% | over_1.5 | 45.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 55.0% | over_2.5 | 19.7% | under_2.5 | 80.3% |
btts
| yes | 21.4% | no | 78.6% |
|---|
total_exact
| exact_0 | 21.8% | exact_1 | 33.2% | exact_2 | 25.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 12.8% | exact_4plus | 6.9% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 45.6% | draw | 31.8% | away | 22.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 83.5% | under_0.5 | 16.6% | over_1.5 | 53.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 46.3% | over_2.5 | 26.9% | under_2.5 | 73.1% |
btts
| yes | 33.4% | no | 66.6% |
|---|
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H | 47.5% | H/D | 5.9% | H/A | 2.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D/H | 14.7% | D/D | 10.3% | D/A | 7.3% |
| A/H | 2.1% | A/D | 2.9% | A/A | 7.2% |
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 | 74.0% | under_7.5 | 26.0% | over_8.5 | 62.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_8.5 | 37.2% | over_9.5 | 51.0% | under_9.5 | 49.0% |
| over_10.5 | 39.5% | under_10.5 | 60.5% | over_11.5 | 29.3% |
| under_11.5 | 70.7% | over_12.5 | 20.7% | under_12.5 | 79.3% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 77.3% | under_3.5 | 22.7% | over_4.5 | 63.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 36.8% | over_5.5 | 48.4% | under_5.5 | 51.6% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 57.0% | under_3.5 | 43.0% | over_4.5 | 39.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 60.3% | over_5.5 | 25.4% | under_5.5 | 74.6% |
most
| home | 60.4% | draw | 10.1% | away | 29.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 29.0% | away_+3.5 | 71.0% | home_-1.5 | 49.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 50.4% | home_-0.5 | 60.4% | away_+0.5 | 39.6% |
| home_+0.5 | 70.6% | away_-0.5 | 29.4% | home_+1.5 | 79.3% |
| away_-1.5 | 20.7% | home_+3.5 | 91.4% | away_-3.5 | 8.6% |
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 | 57.6% | under_22.5 | 42.4% | over_24.5 | 44.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_24.5 | 55.3% | over_26.5 | 32.8% | under_26.5 | 67.2% |
| over_28.5 | 22.6% | under_28.5 | 77.4% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_10.5 | 71.7% | under_10.5 | 28.3% | over_12.5 | 55.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 45.0% | over_14.5 | 38.5% | under_14.5 | 61.5% |
team_away
| over_10.5 | 47.3% | under_10.5 | 52.7% | over_12.5 | 29.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 70.4% | over_14.5 | 16.5% | under_14.5 | 83.5% |
most
| home | 64.7% | draw | 5.9% | away | 29.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-4.5 | 39.0% | away_+4.5 | 61.0% | home_-2.5 | 51.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+2.5 | 48.1% | home_-0.5 | 64.7% | away_+0.5 | 35.3% |
| home_+0.5 | 70.6% | away_-0.5 | 29.4% | home_+2.5 | 80.8% |
| away_-2.5 | 19.2% | home_+4.5 | 88.4% | away_-4.5 | 11.6% |
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 | 65.1% | under_6.5 | 34.9% | over_7.5 | 52.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_7.5 | 47.6% | over_8.5 | 40.1% | under_8.5 | 60.0% |
| over_9.5 | 29.2% | under_9.5 | 70.8% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 63.4% | under_3.5 | 36.6% | over_4.5 | 46.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 53.4% | over_5.5 | 31.7% | under_5.5 | 68.3% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 42.9% | under_3.5 | 57.2% | over_4.5 | 26.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 73.7% | over_5.5 | 14.7% | under_5.5 | 85.3% |
most
| home | 58.1% | draw | 12.3% | away | 29.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 32.8% | away_+2.5 | 67.2% | home_-0.5 | 58.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 41.9% | home_+0.5 | 70.4% | away_-0.5 | 29.6% |
| home_+2.5 | 88.4% | away_-2.5 | 11.7% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 | 66.5% | under_2.5 | 33.5% | over_3.5 | 44.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_3.5 | 55.3% | over_4.5 | 26.0% | under_4.5 | 74.0% |
| over_5.5 | 13.3% | under_5.5 | 86.7% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.1% |
|---|
team_home
| over_1.5 | 46.3% | under_1.5 | 53.7% | over_2.5 | 20.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 79.3% |
team_away
| over_1.5 | 55.5% | under_1.5 | 44.5% | over_2.5 | 28.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 71.4% |
most
| home | 32.7% | draw | 22.3% | away | 45.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-1.5 | 15.6% | away_+1.5 | 84.4% | home_-0.5 | 32.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 67.4% | home_+0.5 | 55.0% | away_-0.5 | 45.0% |
| home_+1.5 | 75.3% | away_-1.5 | 24.7% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 | 68.3% | under_20.5 | 31.7% | over_22.5 | 53.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_22.5 | 46.8% | over_24.5 | 38.0% | under_24.5 | 62.0% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_9.5 | 64.2% | under_9.5 | 35.8% | over_11.5 | 41.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 58.2% | over_13.5 | 22.9% | under_13.5 | 77.1% |
team_away
| over_9.5 | 75.1% | under_9.5 | 24.9% | over_11.5 | 54.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 45.4% | over_13.5 | 34.1% | under_13.5 | 65.9% |
most
| home | 37.2% | draw | 7.6% | away | 55.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 18.0% | away_+3.5 | 82.0% | home_-0.5 | 37.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 62.8% | home_+2.5 | 60.3% | away_-2.5 | 39.7% |
Red card range, not a point
any
| yes | 11.4% | no | 88.6% |
|---|
home
| yes | 4.5% | no | 95.5% |
|---|
away
| yes | 7.3% | no | 92.7% |
|---|
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.
Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.
We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.
Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).
More: Barnet predictions · Cheltenham predictions · League Two
Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.
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