Magdeburg vs Holstein Kiel prediction & probabilities (2026-08-30)

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Magdeburg vs Holstein Kiel: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 29 Aug 2026

2. Bundesliga
Magdeburg

WWLLW

Full time2-0Sun, 30 Aug 202612:30UK
Holstein Kiel

WLLDD

Model’s top convictions

84%

Over 1.5 goals

70%

Magdeburg or draw

64%

Both teams to score

Full time5 of 11 calls right

Post-Match Analysis

Magdeburg 2-0 Holstein Kiel
✓ Result✕ Over 2.5 goals✓ Over 1.5 goals✓ Over 3.5 goals✕ Both teams to score✕ First-half goal✓ Second-half goal✕ Over 9.5 corners✓ Over 3.5 cards✕ Over 24.5 shots✕ Over 7.5 shots on target✓ Red card
6 of 12 published calls on this match were right.

Our most likely call was Magdeburg at 46.2%, and it was correct. We called Over 2.5 at 62.7% and it missed (2 goals). We called Over 1.5 at 83.8% and it landed (2 goals). We called Under 3.5 at 59.5% and it landed (2 goals). We called Yes at 64.0% and it missed. We called Yes at 80.4% and it missed. We called Yes at 80.8% and it landed. We called Over 9.5 at 52.9% and it missed (6 corners). We called Over 3.5 at 71.3% and it landed (9 yellow cards). We called Over 24.5 at 62.0% and it missed (24 shots). We called Over 7.5 at 67.5% and it missed (4 shots on target). We called No at 85.3% and it landed.

Match data Magdeburg Holstein Kiel
Goals, 1st half 0 0
Goals, 2nd half 2 0
Shots 10 14
Shots on target 2 2
Corners 3 3
Yellow cards 5 4
Red cards 0 0
Fouls 14 17

Final match data.

Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
MagdeburgWin probability
46.2%
Top 3 convictions

Over 1.5 goals83.8%High probabilityPays @ 1.19
Magdeburg or draw70.1%Strong chancePays @ 1.43
Both teams to score64.0%Strong chancePays @ 1.56

Model read

▾

"Magdeburg or Holstein Kiel? We publish probabilities, not certainties." The model leans Magdeburg at 46% when Magdeburg host Holstein Kiel in the 2. Bundesliga on 30 August 2026. A lean, though, not a lock. Market and model are aligned here; the fair price says 44%. Everything in the shot data points to goals, 63% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 64%. Recent form reads W3 D0 L3 for Magdeburg against W2 D2 L2 for Holstein Kiel. The recent series reads 3 wins for Magdeburg, 2 draws and 0 for Holstein Kiel over 5 games, 4.6 goals on average. Verdict: no bet. Value_gap +0.020 <= 0.03.

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 10.5 corners41.1%@ 2.43
Over 11.5 corners31.6%@ 3.16
Holstein Kiel win30.0%@ 3.33
Medium risk

Draw or Holstein Kiel53.9%@ 1.86
Over 9.5 corners51.6%@ 1.94
Random finds

1-1 correct score10.7%@ 9.38
2-1 correct score9.2%@ 10.89
1-2 correct score7.2%@ 13.81

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Magdeburg

46.2%+2.0%

Draw

23.9%-1.8%

Holstein Kiel

30.0%-0.1%

ModelMarket

value_gap +0.020 <= 0.03

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.583.8%

High probability

Over 2.562.7%

Strong chance

BTTS · Yes64.0%

Strong chance

Corners markets

Over 8.562.4%

Strong chance

Over 9.551.6%

Good chance

Over 10.541.1%

Toss-up

Over 11.531.6%

Toss-up

Most cornersMagdeburg53.8%Holstein Kiel35.4%

Shots markets

Over 22.573.8%

Strong chance

Over 24.562.0%

Strong chance

Over 26.549.4%

Reasonable chance

Over 28.537.2%

Toss-up

Totals line guide

0.5·1.583.8%2.562.7%3.5·4.5·
Our pre-match focusOver 2.562.7%

Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.

Form & head-to-head

MagdeburgWWLLW
Holstein KielWLLDD

Last 5 meetings: Magdeburg 3 · 2 draws · Holstein Kiel 0 · 4.6 goals/game.

2026-05-09Holstein Kiel 1-3 Magdeburg
2025-12-13Magdeburg 3-3 Holstein Kiel
2024-02-02Magdeburg 1-1 Holstein Kiel
2023-08-20Holstein Kiel 2-4 Magdeburg
2023-02-11Holstein Kiel 2-3 Magdeburg

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

MagdeburgHolstein Kiel
League position#10 of 18#12 of 18
Record W-D-L1-0-10-2-0
Current streakW1D2
Record, home vs away0-0-10-1-0
Red cards this season10

Full league tables & stats →

Players to watch

Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup

Jann-Fiete ArpHolstein Kiel · key player
To score9.0%

@ 11.11

1+ on target40.8%

@ 2.45

2+ shots26.4%

@ 3.79

Shots/90 3.28SoT/90 1.72Goals/90 0.31
Phil HarresHolstein Kiel · in form
To score27.3%

@ 3.66

1+ on target49.4%

@ 2.02

2+ shots43.6%

@ 2.29

Shots/90 2.28SoT/90 1.05Goals/90 0.49
Shuto MachinoHolstein Kiel · in form
To score28.5%

@ 3.51

1+ on target50.2%

@ 1.99

2+ shots44.3%

@ 2.26

Shots/90 2.24SoT/90 1.04Goals/90 0.5

Bookmaker odds

Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.

BookmakerOur fair
Magdeburg win2.152.16
Draw3.604.18
Holstein Kiel win3.103.33
Over 2.5 goals1.571.59
Under 2.5 goals2.352.68

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Magdeburg win2.17
Draw4.19
Holstein Kiel win3.34
Both teams to score1.56

Goals

Over 1.5 goals1.19
Over 2.5 goals1.59
Over 3.5 goals2.47
Over 4.5 goals4.43
Magdeburg most2.17
Holstein Kiel most3.34

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.32
Over 8.5 corners1.54
Over 9.5 corners1.89
Over 10.5 corners2.43
Magdeburg most1.86
Holstein Kiel most2.82

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.16
Over 3.5 cards1.40
Over 4.5 cards1.88
Over 5.5 cards2.80
Magdeburg most2.99
Holstein Kiel most2.08

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.27
Over 7.5 SoT1.48
Over 8.5 SoT1.81
Over 9.5 SoT2.31
Magdeburg most1.94
Holstein Kiel most2.76

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.36
Over 24.5 shots1.61
Over 26.5 shots2.02
Over 28.5 shots2.69
Magdeburg most1.62
Holstein Kiel most3.08

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.27
Over 22.5 fouls1.51
Over 24.5 fouls1.91
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots on target

Over 6.5 78.5% Over 7.5 67.5% Over 8.5 55.4% Over 9.5 43.2%
Most: Magdeburg 51.5% Most: Holstein Kiel 36.3%
Magdeburg Over 4.2 52.8% Holstein Kiel Over 4.2 41.8%

Cards

Over 2.5 86.2% Over 3.5 71.3% Over 4.5 53.2%
Most: Magdeburg 33.5% Most: Holstein Kiel 48.2%
Magdeburg Over 1.8 64.9% Holstein Kiel Over 1.8 73.9%

Holstein Kiel: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Jann-Fiete Arp 3.28 1.72 0.31 40.8% 26.4% 9.0%
Phil Harres 2.28 1.05 0.49 49.4% 43.6% 27.3%
Shuto Machino 2.24 1.04 0.5 50.2% 44.3% 28.5%
Benedikt Pichler 2.47 1.04 0.13 37.6% 30.8% 5.7%
Alexander Bernhardsson 1.88 0.98 0.45 51.6% 40.5% 28.3%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Magdeburg clean sheet 23.8%
Holstein Kiel clean sheet 16.3%
Magdeburg win to nil 19.3%
Holstein Kiel win to nil 11.9%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 46.2% draw 23.9% away 30.0%
double_chance
1X 70.0% 12 76.1% X2 53.8%
dnb
home 60.6% away 39.4%
btts
yes 64.0% no 36.0%
clean_sheet
home 24.0% away 16.4%
win_to_nil
home 19.6% away 11.9%
winning_margin
home_by_1 20.7% home_by_2 14.1% home_by_3plus 11.3%
away_by_1 16.2% away_by_2 8.8% away_by_3plus 5.0%
correct_score
0-0 4.4% 0-1 5.1% 0-2 4.0%
0-3 1.9% 0-4 0.7% 0-5 0.2%
1-0 6.6% 1-1 10.7% 1-2 7.2%
1-3 3.4% 1-4 1.2% 1-5 0.4%
2-0 6.4% 2-1 9.2% 2-2 6.6%
2-3 3.1% 2-4 1.1% 2-5 0.3%
3-0 3.9% 3-1 5.5% 3-2 4.0%
3-3 1.9% 3-4 0.7% 3-5 0.2%
4-0 1.8% 4-1 2.5% 4-2 1.8%
4-3 0.9% 4-4 0.3% 4-5 0.1%
5-0 0.6% 5-1 0.9% 5-2 0.7%
5-3 0.3% 5-4 0.1% 5-5 0.0%
other 1.4%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 10.7%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 95.6% under_0.5 4.4% over_1.5 83.8%
under_1.5 16.2% over_2.5 62.7% under_2.5 37.3%
over_3.5 40.5% under_3.5 59.5% over_4.5 22.6%
under_4.5 77.4% over_5.5 11.0% under_5.5 89.0%
odd_even
odd 48.9% even 51.1%
team_home
over_0.5 83.6% under_0.5 16.4% over_1.5 54.0%
under_1.5 46.0% over_2.5 27.2% under_2.5 72.8%
team_away
over_0.5 76.0% under_0.5 24.0% over_1.5 41.7%
under_1.5 58.3% over_2.5 17.3% under_2.5 82.7%
most
home 46.2% draw 23.9% away 30.0%
handicap
home_-2.5 11.3% away_+2.5 88.7% home_-1.5 25.4%
away_+1.5 74.6% home_-0.5 46.2% away_+0.5 53.8%
home_+0.5 70.0% away_-0.5 30.0% home_+1.5 86.2%
away_-1.5 13.8% home_+2.5 95.0% away_-2.5 5.0%
total_exact
exact_0 4.4% exact_1 11.7% exact_2 21.1%
exact_3 22.2% exact_4 18.0% exact_5 11.6%
exact_6 6.3% exact_7plus 4.7%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 36.7% draw 34.8% away 28.5%
total
over_0.5 80.4% under_0.5 19.6% over_1.5 48.5%
under_1.5 51.5% over_2.5 22.5% under_2.5 77.5%
btts
yes 30.9% no 69.1%
total_exact
exact_0 19.6% exact_1 31.9% exact_2 26.0%
exact_3 14.2% exact_4plus 8.3%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 38.7% draw 34.4% away 26.9%
total
over_0.5 80.8% under_0.5 19.2% over_1.5 49.1%
under_1.5 50.9% over_2.5 23.0% under_2.5 77.0%
btts
yes 31.1% no 68.9%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 29.5% H/D 5.1% H/A 2.1%
D/H 13.5% D/D 12.0% D/A 9.4%
A/H 3.1% A/D 5.6% A/A 19.8%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 75.8% under_7.5 24.2% over_8.5 64.8%
under_8.5 35.2% over_9.5 52.9% under_9.5 47.1%
over_10.5 41.1% under_10.5 58.9% over_11.5 30.5%
under_11.5 69.5% over_12.5 21.6% under_12.5 78.4%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 75.2% under_3.5 24.8% over_4.5 60.2%
under_4.5 39.8% over_5.5 44.9% under_5.5 55.2%
team_away
over_3.5 63.6% under_3.5 36.4% over_4.5 46.4%
under_4.5 53.6% over_5.5 31.2% under_5.5 68.8%
most
home 53.8% draw 10.7% away 35.5%
handicap
home_-3.5 23.6% away_+3.5 76.4% home_-1.5 42.9%
away_+1.5 57.1% home_-0.5 53.8% away_+0.5 46.2%
home_+0.5 64.5% away_-0.5 35.5% home_+1.5 74.1%
away_-1.5 25.9% home_+3.5 88.4% away_-3.5 11.6%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 73.8% under_22.5 26.2% over_24.5 62.0%
under_24.5 38.0% over_26.5 49.4% under_26.5 50.6%
over_28.5 37.2% under_28.5 62.8%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 80.0% under_10.5 20.1% over_12.5 64.8%
under_12.5 35.2% over_14.5 48.0% under_14.5 52.0%
team_away
over_10.5 62.8% under_10.5 37.2% over_12.5 44.1%
under_12.5 56.0% over_14.5 27.6% under_14.5 72.4%
most
home 61.6% draw 5.9% away 32.5%
handicap
home_-4.5 36.4% away_+4.5 63.6% home_-2.5 49.0%
away_+2.5 51.0% home_-0.5 61.6% away_+0.5 38.4%
home_+0.5 67.5% away_-0.5 32.5% home_+2.5 78.1%
away_-2.5 21.9% home_+4.5 86.3% away_-4.5 13.7%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 78.5% under_6.5 21.5% over_7.5 67.5%
under_7.5 32.5% over_8.5 55.4% under_8.5 44.6%
over_9.5 43.3% under_9.5 56.8%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 69.7% under_3.5 30.3% over_4.5 52.8%
under_4.5 47.2% over_5.5 36.8% under_5.5 63.2%
team_away
over_3.5 59.8% under_3.5 40.2% over_4.5 41.8%
under_4.5 58.2% over_5.5 26.6% under_5.5 73.4%
most
home 51.5% draw 12.3% away 36.3%
handicap
home_-2.5 27.9% away_+2.5 72.1% home_-0.5 51.5%
away_+0.5 48.5% home_+0.5 63.7% away_-0.5 36.3%
home_+2.5 83.6% away_-2.5 16.5%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 86.2% under_2.5 13.8% over_3.5 71.3%
under_3.5 28.7% over_4.5 53.2% under_4.5 46.8%
over_5.5 35.7% under_5.5 64.3%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 64.9% under_1.5 35.1% over_2.5 38.1%
under_2.5 61.9%
team_away
over_1.5 73.9% under_1.5 26.1% over_2.5 49.0%
under_2.5 51.0%
most
home 33.5% draw 18.4% away 48.2%
handicap
home_-1.5 18.5% away_+1.5 81.5% home_-0.5 33.5%
away_+0.5 66.5% home_+0.5 51.8% away_-0.5 48.2%
home_+1.5 69.7% away_-1.5 30.3%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 78.6% under_20.5 21.5% over_22.5 66.2%
under_22.5 33.8% over_24.5 52.3% under_24.5 47.7%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 71.1% under_9.5 28.9% over_11.5 50.8%
under_11.5 49.2% over_13.5 31.6% under_13.5 68.5%
team_away
over_9.5 81.4% under_9.5 18.6% over_11.5 64.4%
under_11.5 35.6% over_13.5 45.2% under_13.5 54.8%
most
home 36.8% draw 6.9% away 56.4%
handicap
home_-3.5 19.2% away_+3.5 80.8% home_-0.5 36.8%
away_+0.5 63.2% home_+2.5 57.8% away_-2.5 42.2%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 14.7% no 85.3%
home
yes 6.4% no 93.6%
away
yes 8.9% no 91.1%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Magdeburg predictions · Holstein Kiel predictions · 2. Bundesliga

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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2. BundesligaMagdeburgHolstein KielTrack record