St. Gilloise vs Lommel SK prediction & probabilities (2026-09-12)

By /
Pro League

St. Gilloise vs Lommel SK Double Chance

2026-09-12 · 19:45
Double Chance91.7%Home or Draw

Part of a bigger picture: see the full match page, where this comes from.

Best predictionHome or Draw · 91.7%A clear lean on the model’s numbers. Calibrated, not a tip.
92%

model probability

ConvictionStrong

Expert AI analysis

The headline read is Home or Draw at 91.7%, its strongest read on the Double Chance market. For context, St. Gilloise are favoured at 74.5%, so game state could swing this market. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.

Double Chance

★ Top coverSt. Gilloise or Draw91.7%

Draw or Lommel SK25.5%

St. Gilloise or Lommel SK82.8%

Draw no bet

St. Gilloise90.0%

Lommel SK10.0%

Draw no bet: the draw is taken out and the remaining probability is split between the two sides.

Winning margin

Margin Probability
St. Gilloise by 1 23.2%
St. Gilloise by 2 22.2%
St. Gilloise by 3+ 29.0%
Lommel SK by 1 6.2%
Lommel SK by 2 1.7%
Lommel SK by 3+ 0.4%
Draw 17.2%

Goal handicap

St. Gilloise line St. Gilloise Lommel SK
-2.5 29.0% 71.0%
-1.5 51.2% 48.8%
-0.5 74.5% 25.5%
+0.5 91.7% 8.3%

This season (2026/27)

2.8St. Gilloise goals scored per game
0.6St. Gilloise goals conceded per game
1.2Lommel SK goals scored per game
0.6Lommel SK goals conceded per game

Double chance trades a slice of return for a wider safety net. The highest-probability cover is St. Gilloise or draw on the model numbers.

In-depth analysis

74.5%Favoured: St. Gilloise
42.8%Both Teams to Score
56.2%Over 2.5 goals

For context, St. Gilloise are favoured at 74.5%. How the game flows often matters more here than the pre-match favourite.

We publish the model, not a sure thing. We grade every call after the match.

Model lenses

Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.

The CalibratorRaw model read: 91.7% on Double Chance, graded against real out-of-sample results, no odds attached.
The TacticianSees an open, higher-tempo game from the 56.2% over 2.5 read.
The ScoutSt. Gilloise are the model’s pick on the result at 74.5%, context for how the goals may flow.
The RealistThis one sits near a coin-flip, the honest read is low conviction, no strong lean.

Form & head-to-head

St. GilloiseWDWWW
Lommel SKDLWWL

FAQ

What is the most likely double chance in St. Gilloise vs Lommel SK?
Home or Draw is the highest-probability double chance for St. Gilloise vs Lommel SK at 91.7%.

What is the draw no bet probability in St. Gilloise vs Lommel SK?
With the draw taken out, the model rates St. Gilloise at 90.0% and Lommel SK at 10.0%.

How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.

Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.

Double Chance accuracy

How our Double Chance calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.

75.8%Best Double Chance call, hit rate
0.0097Calibration error
55,318Matches graded

In 1,738 matches we rated like this one (90–100%), Double Chance actually happened 94.4% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 13 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →

Our last 10 Double Chance calls

The model’s most recent graded Double Chance predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.

✗ 78.1%✓ 80.2%✓ 81.4%✓ 84.3%✗ 71.2%✓ 72.9%✗ 71.7%✓ 77.1%✓ 81.1%✓ 70.6%
7 of 10 recent calls hit.
Estrela vs Sp Braga2026-09-10Draw or Away 78.1%Miss
Panathinaikos vs Kifisia2026-09-10Home or Draw 80.2%Hit
Twente vs Telstar2026-09-09Home or Draw 81.4%Hit
Moreirense vs Benfica2026-09-09Draw or Away 84.3%Hit
Derby vs West Brom2026-09-09Home or Draw 71.2%Miss

More Pro League, Double Chance

Club Brugge vs AntwerpGenk vs GentWaregem vs CharleroiRAAL La Louviere vs Kortrijk

Related

Pro LeagueSt. GilloiseLommel SKTrack record

Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.