St. Gilloise vs Lommel SK prediction & probabilities (2026-09-12)

Pro League

St. Gilloise vs Lommel SK Both Teams to Score

2026-09-12 · 19:45
Both Teams to Score57.2%Both teams to score · No
Best predictionBoth teams to score · No · 57.2%Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean. Calibrated, not a tip.
57%

model probability

ConvictionLean

Expert AI analysis

Our model lands on Both teams to score · No at 57.2%, its strongest read on the Both Teams to Score market. Recent output points the same way: St. Gilloise have averaged 2.8 scored and 0.6 conceded, Lommel SK 1.2 and 0.6 over their recent games. That fits an open goals environment: 56.2% for over 2.5 and 79.5% for at least two goals. St. Gilloise have seen both teams score in 2 of their last 5, Lommel SK in 1 of 5. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.

Both Teams to Score

Yes42.8%

★ ModelNo57.2%

Over 2.5 · context56.2%

Recent scoring & conceding (per game)

St. Gilloise scored

2.8

St. Gilloise conceded

0.6

Lommel SK scored

1.2

Lommel SK conceded

0.6

Each team to score

St. Gilloise to score89.9%

St. Gilloise 2+ goals66.8%

Lommel SK to score47.2%

Lommel SK 2+ goals13.5%

By half

Both score in 1st half15.0%

Both score in 2nd half16.2%

This season (2026/27)

40.0%St. Gilloise BTTS rate
60.0%St. Gilloise clean sheets
2.8St. Gilloise goals scored per game
20.0%Lommel SK BTTS rate
40.0%Lommel SK clean sheets
1.2Lommel SK goals scored per game

Goals distribution

The model’s probability for the total number of goals, the shape behind every goals market. The 5+ bar groups every result with five or more goals.

5.7%

0

14.8%

1

23.3%

2

22.4%

3

16.4%

4

14.4%

5+

In-depth analysis

74.5%Favoured: St. Gilloise
42.8%Both Teams to Score
56.2%Over 2.5 goals

For the goal environment, the model sees 56.2% for three or more goals and 79.5% for at least two, painting a balanced picture. With St. Gilloise favoured at 74.5%, the scoreline often hinges on whether the favourite is made to chase.

We publish the model, not a sure thing. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.

Model lenses

Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.

The CalibratorRaw model read: 57.2% on Both Teams to Score, graded against real out-of-sample results, no odds attached.
The TacticianSees an open, higher-tempo game from the 56.2% over 2.5 read.
The ScoutSt. Gilloise are the model’s pick on the result at 74.5%, context for how the goals may flow.
The RealistThis one sits near a coin-flip, the honest read is low conviction, no strong lean.

Match outlook

St. Gilloise74.5%

Draw17.2%

Lommel SK8.3%

The model leans St. Gilloise to win. See the full prediction →

Form & head-to-head

St. GilloiseWDWWW
Lommel SKDLWWL

Recent trends

St. GilloiseBTTS 2/5Over 2.5 4/5
Lommel SKBTTS 1/5Over 2.5 1/5

How often both teams scored and the match went over 2.5 in each side’s recent games.

FAQ

Will both teams score in St. Gilloise vs Lommel SK?
Our calibrated model rates Both Teams to Score at 42.8% for St. Gilloise vs Lommel SK.

Will St. Gilloise score against Lommel SK?
The model rates St. Gilloise to score at 89.9% and Lommel SK to score at 47.2%.

How often have St. Gilloise seen both teams score recently?
St. Gilloise have seen both teams score in 2 of their last 5, Lommel SK in 1 of 5.

How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.

Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.

Both Teams to Score accuracy

How our Both Teams to Score calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.

53.3%Best Both Teams to Score call, hit rate
0.0231Calibration error
55,318Matches graded

In 20,236 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Both Teams to Score actually happened 49.5% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 13 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →

Our last 10 Both Teams to Score calls

The model’s most recent graded Both Teams to Score predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.

✓ 52.9%✗ 51.9%✗ 59.3%✗ 50.6%✓ 52.6%✓ 51.6%✗ 51.1%✓ 58.9%✓ 62.2%✗ 52.0%
5 of 10 recent calls hit.
Estrela vs Sp Braga2026-09-10Yes 52.9%Hit
Panathinaikos vs Kifisia2026-09-10No 51.9%Miss
Twente vs Telstar2026-09-09Yes 59.3%Miss
Moreirense vs Benfica2026-09-09Yes 50.6%Miss
Derby vs West Brom2026-09-09No 52.6%Hit

More Pro League, Both Teams to Score

All Both Teams to Score predictions →

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Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.