Ligue 2
St Etienne vs Grenoble Correct Score
Result
Final score 4-0. The model gave that exact scoreline 2.9%.
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Most likely · 12.5% at 1-0, its strongest read on the Correct Score market. Recent output points the same way: St Etienne have averaged 2.4 scored and 1.2 conceded, Grenoble 1.0 and 1.0 over their recent games. That fits a balanced goals environment: 48.1% for over 2.5 and 73.8% for at least two goals. Their last 5 meetings have averaged 1.4 goals a game. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Correct Score
| Scoreline | Probability |
|---|---|
| 1-0 | 12.5% |
| 1-1 | 11.6% |
| 2-0 | 11.4% |
| 2-1 | 9.7% |
| 0-0 | 8.0% |
| 3-0 | 6.6% |
| 0-1 | 5.8% |
| 3-1 | 5.6% |
Score probability grid
| St Etienne \ Grenoble | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8% | 6% | 3% | 1% | · | · |
| 1 | 12% | 12% | 5% | 1% | · | · |
| 2 | 11% | 10% | 4% | 1% | · | · |
| 3 | 7% | 6% | 2% | 1% | · | · |
| 4 | 3% | 2% | 1% | · | · | · |
| 5 | 1% | 1% | · | · | · | · |
Rows = St Etienne goals, columns = Grenoble. The most likely scoreline is 1-0 at 12.5%. Rather than one score, the model spreads probability across the whole grid, that distribution is the real signal. Darker cells carry more probability.
Goals distribution
The model’s probability for the total number of goals, the shape behind every goals market. The 5+ bar groups every result with five or more goals.
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1
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5+
In-depth analysis
47.9%Both Teams to Score48.1%Over 2.5 goalsFor the goal environment, the model sees 48.1% for three or more goals and 73.8% for at least two, painting a balanced picture. With St Etienne favoured at 58.0%, a competitive game tends to open up.
We publish the model, not a sure thing. We grade every call after the match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: St Etienne 2 · 2 draws · Grenoble 1 · 1.4 goals/game.
FAQ
What was the score in St Etienne vs Grenoble?
St Etienne vs Grenoble finished 4-0. The model's most likely scoreline was 1-0 at 12.5%; it gave the actual 4-0 a 2.9% chance.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Overall model accuracy
We don’t yet publish a graded Correct Score-specific track record, so this is our overall accuracy across every 1X2 call, graded out-of-sample, updated daily.
Predictions & track record updated 12 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
More Ligue 2, Correct Score
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.