Nantes vs Rodez prediction & probabilities (2026-08-22)

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Nantes vs Rodez: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 22 Aug 2026

Ligue 2
Nantes

LL

Full time2-5Sat, 22 Aug 202613:00UK
Rodez

DWWWL

Model’s top convictions

74%

Over 1.5 goals

74%

Draw or Rodez

58%

Over 8.5 corners

Full time1 of 2 calls right

Post-Match Analysis

Nantes 2-5 Rodez
✓ Result✕ Over 2.5 goals✓ Both teams to score
2 of 3 published calls on this match were right.

Our most likely call was Rodez at 47.3%, and it was correct. We called Under 2.5 at 51.4% and it missed (7 goals). We called Yes at 52.4% and it landed.

Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
RodezWin probability
47.3%
Top 3 convictions

Over 1.5 goals74.2%Strong chancePays @ 1.35
Draw or Rodez74.0%Strong chancePays @ 1.35
Over 8.5 corners57.8%Good chancePays @ 1.73

Model read

▾

Our engine prices Rodez at 47% for 22 August 2026. Favourites, yes; certainties, no. Our number sits above the market's 20% for Rodez. The gap itself is information. No strong lean on goals (49% Over 2.5). The interest, if any, lives elsewhere. Recent form reads W0 D0 L2 for Nantes against W4 D1 L1 for Rodez. Nantes are newly promoted, a profile the model deliberately prices with caution. For shots markets, Bahereba Guirassy is the obvious watch at 0.9 on target per 90 in recent data. Verdict: no bet. Too extreme an outsider (fair 0.20).

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Rodez win47.3%@ 2.11
Over 9.5 corners46.8%@ 2.14
Over 10.5 corners36.5%@ 2.74
Medium risk

Nantes or draw52.8%@ 1.89
Both teams to score52.4%@ 1.91
Under 2.5 goals51.4%@ 1.95
Random finds

1-1 correct score12.7%@ 7.87
0-1 correct score10.6%@ 9.42
1-2 correct score9.3%@ 10.74

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Nantes

26.1%-29.0%

Draw

26.7%+2.0%

Rodez

47.3%+27.2%

ModelMarket

too extreme an outsider (fair 0.20)

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.574.2%

Strong chance

Over 2.548.6%

Reasonable chance

BTTS · Yes52.4%

Good chance

Corners markets

Over 8.557.8%

Good chance

Over 9.546.8%

Reasonable chance

Over 10.536.5%

Toss-up

Over 11.527.5%

Low chance

Most cornersNantes53.0%Rodez36.0%

Shots markets

Over 22.551.9%

Good chance

Over 24.539.1%

Toss-up

Over 26.527.8%

Low chance

Over 28.518.5%

Low chance

Totals line guide

0.5·1.574.2%2.548.6%3.5·4.5·
Our pre-match focusOver 1.574.2%

Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.

Form & head-to-head

NantesLL
RodezDWWWL

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

NantesRodez
League position#18 of 18#7 of 18
Record W-D-L0-0-21-0-1
Current streakL2L1
Record, home vs away0-0-10-0-1
Red cards this season00

Full league tables & stats →

Players to watch

Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup

Bahereba GuirassyNantes · key player
To score10.1%

@ 9.90

1+ on target25.2%

@ 3.97

2+ shots11.5%

@ 8.70

Shots/90 1.8SoT/90 0.9Goals/90 0.33
Mostafa MohamedNantes · in form
To score15.5%

@ 6.45

1+ on target35.2%

@ 2.84

2+ shots42.6%

@ 2.35

Shots/90 2.94SoT/90 0.88Goals/90 0.34
Youssef El-ArabiNantes · in form
To score11.4%

@ 8.77

1+ on target30.3%

@ 3.30

2+ shots12.2%

@ 8.20

Shots/90 1.43SoT/90 0.86Goals/90 0.29

Bookmaker odds

Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.

BookmakerOur fair
Nantes win1.673.83
Draw3.503.75
Rodez win4.202.11
Over 2.5 goals1.832.06
Under 2.5 goals1.981.95

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Nantes win3.84
Draw3.75
Rodez win2.12
Both teams to score1.91

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.09
Over 1.5 goals1.35
Over 2.5 goals2.06
Over 3.5 goals3.73
Nantes most3.84
Rodez most2.12

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.40
Over 8.5 corners1.67
Over 9.5 corners2.10
Over 10.5 corners2.77
Nantes most1.88
Rodez most2.77

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.42
Over 3.5 cards2.02
Over 4.5 cards3.29
Over 5.5 cards6.12
Nantes most2.64
Rodez most2.48

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.52
Over 7.5 SoT1.88
Over 8.5 SoT2.46
Over 9.5 SoT3.37
Nantes most1.81
Rodez most3.10

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.93
Over 24.5 shots2.56
Over 26.5 shots3.60
Over 28.5 shots5.41
Nantes most1.63
Rodez most3.08

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.18
Over 22.5 fouls1.36
Over 24.5 fouls1.65
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots on target

Over 6.5 65.9% Over 7.5 53.1% Over 8.5 40.7% Over 9.5 29.6%
Most: Nantes 55.2% Most: Rodez 32.3%
Nantes Over 4.2 45.1% Rodez Over 4.2 28.8%

Cards

Over 2.5 70.7% Over 3.5 49.6% Over 4.5 30.4%
Most: Nantes 37.9% Most: Rodez 40.4%
Nantes Over 1.8 53.6% Rodez Over 1.8 55.4%

Nantes: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Bahereba Guirassy 1.8 0.9 0.33 25.2% 11.5% 10.1%
Mostafa Mohamed 2.94 0.88 0.34 35.2% 42.6% 15.5%
Youssef El-Arabi 1.43 0.86 0.29 30.3% 12.2% 11.4%
Matthis Abline 2.65 0.84 0.26 52.8% 68.5% 20.8%
Rémy Cabella 1.44 0.8 0.32 36.4% 19.7% 16.6%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Nantes clean sheet 21.5%
Rodez clean sheet 33.8%
Nantes win to nil 13.6%
Rodez win to nil 25.9%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 26.1% draw 26.7% away 47.3%
double_chance
1X 52.7% 12 73.3% X2 73.9%
dnb
home 35.6% away 64.5%
btts
yes 52.4% no 47.6%
clean_sheet
home 21.5% away 34.0%
win_to_nil
home 13.6% away 26.1%
winning_margin
home_by_1 15.9% home_by_2 7.2% home_by_3plus 3.0%
away_by_1 22.9% away_by_2 14.5% away_by_3plus 9.9%
correct_score
0-0 7.9% 0-1 10.6% 0-2 8.6%
0-3 4.4% 0-4 1.7% 0-5 0.5%
1-0 7.3% 1-1 12.7% 1-2 9.3%
1-3 4.8% 1-4 1.8% 1-5 0.6%
2-0 4.3% 2-1 6.5% 2-2 5.0%
2-3 2.6% 2-4 1.0% 2-5 0.3%
3-0 1.5% 3-1 2.4% 3-2 1.8%
3-3 0.9% 3-4 0.4% 3-5 0.1%
4-0 0.4% 4-1 0.6% 4-2 0.5%
4-3 0.3% 4-4 0.1% 4-5 0.0%
5-0 0.1% 5-1 0.1% 5-2 0.1%
5-3 0.1% 5-4 0.0% 5-5 0.0%
other 0.6%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 12.7%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 92.1% under_0.5 7.9% over_1.5 74.2%
under_1.5 25.8% over_2.5 48.6% under_2.5 51.4%
over_3.5 26.8% under_3.5 73.2% over_4.5 12.5%
under_4.5 87.5% over_5.5 5.0% under_5.5 95.0%
odd_even
odd 48.5% even 51.5%
team_home
over_0.5 66.0% under_0.5 34.0% over_1.5 29.3%
under_1.5 70.7% over_2.5 9.6% under_2.5 90.4%
team_away
over_0.5 78.5% under_0.5 21.5% over_1.5 45.5%
under_1.5 54.5% over_2.5 20.1% under_2.5 79.9%
most
home 26.1% draw 26.7% away 47.3%
handicap
home_-2.5 3.0% away_+2.5 97.0% home_-1.5 10.2%
away_+1.5 89.8% home_-0.5 26.1% away_+0.5 73.9%
home_+0.5 52.7% away_-0.5 47.3% home_+1.5 75.6%
away_-1.5 24.4% home_+2.5 90.1% away_-2.5 9.9%
total_exact
exact_0 7.9% exact_1 17.9% exact_2 25.6%
exact_3 21.8% exact_4 14.3% exact_5 7.5%
exact_6 3.3% exact_7plus 1.8%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 29.8% draw 45.4% away 24.8%
total
over_0.5 64.8% under_0.5 35.2% over_1.5 28.1%
under_1.5 71.9% over_2.5 8.9% under_2.5 91.1%
btts
yes 16.5% no 83.5%
total_exact
exact_0 35.2% exact_1 36.8% exact_2 19.2%
exact_3 6.7% exact_4plus 2.2%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 21.3% draw 36.4% away 42.3%
total
over_0.5 76.7% under_0.5 23.3% over_1.5 42.8%
under_1.5 57.2% over_2.5 18.1% under_2.5 81.9%
btts
yes 25.2% no 74.8%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 19.4% H/D 6.8% H/A 3.7%
D/H 9.7% D/D 16.5% D/A 19.2%
A/H 1.0% A/D 3.4% A/A 20.4%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 71.4% under_7.5 28.6% over_8.5 59.7%
under_8.5 40.3% over_9.5 47.6% under_9.5 52.4%
over_10.5 36.1% under_10.5 63.9% over_11.5 26.1%
under_11.5 73.9% over_12.5 18.0% under_12.5 82.0%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 71.8% under_3.5 28.2% over_4.5 56.2%
under_4.5 43.8% over_5.5 40.9% under_5.5 59.1%
team_away
over_3.5 60.5% under_3.5 39.5% over_4.5 43.3%
under_4.5 56.7% over_5.5 28.5% under_5.5 71.5%
most
home 53.1% draw 10.9% away 36.0%
handicap
home_-3.5 22.5% away_+3.5 77.5% home_-1.5 42.0%
away_+1.5 58.0% home_-0.5 53.1% away_+0.5 46.9%
home_+0.5 64.0% away_-0.5 36.0% home_+1.5 73.8%
away_-1.5 26.2% home_+3.5 88.3% away_-3.5 11.7%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 51.9% under_22.5 48.1% over_24.5 39.1%
under_24.5 60.9% over_26.5 27.8% under_26.5 72.3%
over_28.5 18.5% under_28.5 81.5%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 66.2% under_10.5 33.8% over_12.5 48.7%
under_12.5 51.3% over_14.5 32.5% under_14.5 67.5%
team_away
over_10.5 45.9% under_10.5 54.1% over_12.5 28.3%
under_12.5 71.7% over_14.5 15.6% under_14.5 84.4%
most
home 61.3% draw 6.2% away 32.5%
handicap
home_-4.5 35.2% away_+4.5 64.8% home_-2.5 48.1%
away_+2.5 51.9% home_-0.5 61.3% away_+0.5 38.7%
home_+0.5 67.6% away_-0.5 32.5% home_+2.5 78.5%
away_-2.5 21.5% home_+4.5 87.0% away_-4.5 13.1%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 65.9% under_6.5 34.1% over_7.5 53.1%
under_7.5 46.9% over_8.5 40.7% under_8.5 59.3%
over_9.5 29.6% under_9.5 70.4%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 62.1% under_3.5 37.9% over_4.5 45.1%
under_4.5 54.9% over_5.5 30.2% under_5.5 69.8%
team_away
over_3.5 45.8% under_3.5 54.2% over_4.5 28.8%
under_4.5 71.2% over_5.5 16.5% under_5.5 83.5%
most
home 55.2% draw 12.6% away 32.3%
handicap
home_-2.5 30.1% away_+2.5 69.9% home_-0.5 55.2%
away_+0.5 44.8% home_+0.5 67.7% away_-0.5 32.3%
home_+2.5 86.8% away_-2.5 13.2%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 70.7% under_2.5 29.3% over_3.5 49.6%
under_3.5 50.4% over_4.5 30.4% under_4.5 69.6%
over_5.5 16.3% under_5.5 83.7%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 53.6% under_1.5 46.4% over_2.5 26.9%
under_2.5 73.2%
team_away
over_1.5 55.4% under_1.5 44.6% over_2.5 28.5%
under_2.5 71.5%
most
home 37.9% draw 21.7% away 40.4%
handicap
home_-1.5 19.8% away_+1.5 80.3% home_-0.5 37.9%
away_+0.5 62.1% home_+0.5 59.6% away_-0.5 40.4%
home_+1.5 78.4% away_-1.5 21.6%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 84.4% under_20.5 15.6% over_22.5 73.7%
under_22.5 26.3% over_24.5 60.5% under_24.5 39.5%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 77.6% under_9.5 22.4% over_11.5 58.5%
under_11.5 41.5% over_13.5 38.4% under_13.5 61.6%
team_away
over_9.5 84.6% under_9.5 15.4% over_11.5 68.6%
under_11.5 31.4% over_13.5 49.3% under_13.5 50.7%
most
home 38.9% draw 7.0% away 54.1%
handicap
home_-3.5 20.7% away_+3.5 79.3% home_-0.5 38.9%
away_+0.5 61.1% home_+2.5 60.0% away_-2.5 40.0%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 15.0% no 85.0%
home
yes 10.6% no 89.4%
away
yes 5.0% no 95.0%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Nantes predictions · Rodez predictions · Ligue 2

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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