Castellon vs Sabadell: model prediction
Segunda DivisiónCastellon or draw
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Full time0 of 2 calls right
Our most likely call was Castellon at 65.8%, and it was wrong. We called Over 2.5 at 57.7% and it missed (0 goals). We called Yes at 51.7% and it missed.
Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.
Prediction summary
Top 3 convictions
Model read
▾
The numbers leave little room for romance here: Castellon at 66% against Sabadell, Segunda División, 23 August 2026. The numbers that frame it: • Notably, the model is warmer on Castellon than the market (62%). We flag disagreement rather than hide it. • Totals sit close to the fence: 58% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 52%. • Form guide over the last six: Castellon W3 D2 L1, Sabadell W2 D1 L3. • Head to head, the last 2 meetings gave 1 wins for Castellon, 1 draws and 0 for Sabadell, averaging 2.5 goals a game. As a promoted side, Sabadell carry exactly the structural uncertainty our priors were built for. Verdict: no bet. Conservative ev -0.023 <= 0.
Value & higher-risk angles
Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.
Model vs market
65.8%+3.9%
20.4%-3.5%
13.8%-0.4%
conservative EV -0.023 <= 0
Goals markets
High probability
Good chance
Good chance
Corners markets
Good chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Low chance
Shots markets
Strong chance
Good chance
Toss-up
Low chance
Totals line guide
Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.
Form & head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Castellon 1 · 1 draws · Sabadell 0 · 2.5 goals/game.
Season stats
Season 2026/27, real results only
Bookmaker odds
Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Goals
Corners
Cards
Shots on target
Shots
Fouls
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots on target
| Over 6.5 | 77.6% | Over 7.5 | 65.9% | Over 8.5 | 53.1% | Over 9.5 | 40.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Castellon | 59.1% | Most: Sabadell | 28.8% | ||||
| Castellon Over 4.2 | 56.5% | Sabadell Over 4.2 | 34.4% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 | 88.7% | Over 3.5 | 75.5% | Over 4.5 | 58.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Castellon | 36.2% | Most: Sabadell | 45.9% | ||
| Castellon Over 1.8 | 69.8% | Sabadell Over 1.8 | 75.4% |
Clean sheet & win to nil
| Castellon clean sheet | 40.9% |
|---|---|
| Sabadell clean sheet | 11.9% |
| Castellon win to nil | 35.5% |
| Sabadell win to nil | 6.5% |
Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home | 65.8% | draw | 20.4% | away | 13.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
double_chance
| 1X | 86.2% | 12 | 79.6% | X2 | 34.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
dnb
| home | 82.7% | away | 17.3% |
|---|
btts
| yes | 51.7% | no | 48.3% |
|---|
clean_sheet
| home | 41.8% | away | 11.9% |
|---|
win_to_nil
| home | 36.4% | away | 6.5% |
|---|
winning_margin
| home_by_1 | 23.5% | home_by_2 | 20.1% | home_by_3plus | 22.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_by_1 | 9.4% | away_by_2 | 3.4% | away_by_3plus | 1.1% |
correct_score
| 0-0 | 5.4% | 0-1 | 3.9% | 0-2 | 1.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | 0.5% | 0-4 | 0.1% | 0-5 | 0.0% |
| 1-0 | 10.1% | 1-1 | 9.7% | 1-2 | 4.0% |
| 1-3 | 1.2% | 1-4 | 0.3% | 1-5 | 0.0% |
| 2-0 | 11.3% | 2-1 | 9.8% | 2-2 | 4.3% |
| 2-3 | 1.2% | 2-4 | 0.3% | 2-5 | 0.1% |
| 3-0 | 8.0% | 3-1 | 7.0% | 3-2 | 3.0% |
| 3-3 | 0.9% | 3-4 | 0.2% | 3-5 | 0.0% |
| 4-0 | 4.3% | 4-1 | 3.7% | 4-2 | 1.6% |
| 4-3 | 0.5% | 4-4 | 0.1% | 4-5 | 0.0% |
| 5-0 | 1.8% | 5-1 | 1.6% | 5-2 | 0.7% |
| 5-3 | 0.2% | 5-4 | 0.0% | 5-5 | 0.0% |
| other | 2.2% |
likeliest_score
| h | 200.0% | a | 0.0% | p | 11.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 | 94.6% | under_0.5 | 5.4% | over_1.5 | 80.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 19.4% | over_2.5 | 57.7% | under_2.5 | 42.3% |
| over_3.5 | 35.3% | under_3.5 | 64.7% | over_4.5 | 18.5% |
| under_4.5 | 81.5% | over_5.5 | 8.4% | under_5.5 | 91.6% |
odd_even
| odd | 48.9% | even | 51.1% |
|---|
team_home
| over_0.5 | 88.1% | under_0.5 | 11.9% | over_1.5 | 62.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 37.2% | over_2.5 | 35.8% | under_2.5 | 64.2% |
team_away
| over_0.5 | 58.2% | under_0.5 | 41.8% | over_1.5 | 21.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 78.3% | over_2.5 | 5.8% | under_2.5 | 94.2% |
most
| home | 65.8% | draw | 20.4% | away | 13.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 22.2% | away_+2.5 | 77.8% | home_-1.5 | 42.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 57.7% | home_-0.5 | 65.8% | away_+0.5 | 34.2% |
| home_+0.5 | 86.2% | away_-0.5 | 13.8% | home_+1.5 | 95.6% |
| away_-1.5 | 4.4% | home_+2.5 | 98.9% | away_-2.5 | 1.1% |
total_exact
| exact_0 | 5.4% | exact_1 | 14.0% | exact_2 | 22.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 22.4% | exact_4 | 16.8% | exact_5 | 10.1% |
| exact_6 | 5.0% | exact_7plus | 3.4% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 39.0% | draw | 42.6% | away | 18.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 67.6% | under_0.5 | 32.4% | over_1.5 | 31.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 69.0% | over_2.5 | 10.5% | under_2.5 | 89.5% |
btts
| yes | 17.1% | no | 82.9% |
|---|
total_exact
| exact_0 | 32.4% | exact_1 | 36.5% | exact_2 | 20.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 7.7% | exact_4plus | 2.8% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 39.1% | draw | 38.8% | away | 22.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 73.6% | under_0.5 | 26.4% | over_1.5 | 38.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 61.6% | over_2.5 | 15.0% | under_2.5 | 85.0% |
btts
| yes | 22.6% | no | 77.4% |
|---|
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H | 32.5% | H/D | 5.0% | H/A | 1.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D/H | 16.6% | D/D | 16.6% | D/A | 9.4% |
| A/H | 2.1% | A/D | 4.2% | A/A | 12.2% |
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 | 70.9% | under_7.5 | 29.1% | over_8.5 | 58.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_8.5 | 41.2% | over_9.5 | 46.4% | under_9.5 | 53.6% |
| over_10.5 | 34.8% | under_10.5 | 65.2% | over_11.5 | 24.8% |
| under_11.5 | 75.2% | over_12.5 | 16.8% | under_12.5 | 83.2% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 73.6% | under_3.5 | 26.4% | over_4.5 | 58.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 41.8% | over_5.5 | 42.7% | under_5.5 | 57.3% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 57.2% | under_3.5 | 42.8% | over_4.5 | 39.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 60.4% | over_5.5 | 25.1% | under_5.5 | 74.9% |
most
| home | 56.7% | draw | 10.8% | away | 32.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 25.0% | away_+3.5 | 75.0% | home_-1.5 | 45.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 54.6% | home_-0.5 | 56.7% | away_+0.5 | 43.3% |
| home_+0.5 | 67.5% | away_-0.5 | 32.5% | home_+1.5 | 77.0% |
| away_-1.5 | 23.0% | home_+3.5 | 90.4% | away_-3.5 | 9.6% |
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 | 64.9% | under_22.5 | 35.2% | over_24.5 | 52.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_24.5 | 47.9% | over_26.5 | 39.5% | under_26.5 | 60.5% |
| over_28.5 | 28.2% | under_28.5 | 71.8% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_10.5 | 77.2% | under_10.5 | 22.8% | over_12.5 | 61.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 38.5% | over_14.5 | 44.8% | under_14.5 | 55.2% |
team_away
| over_10.5 | 51.3% | under_10.5 | 48.7% | over_12.5 | 32.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 67.1% | over_14.5 | 18.7% | under_14.5 | 81.3% |
most
| home | 66.8% | draw | 5.7% | away | 27.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-4.5 | 41.4% | away_+4.5 | 58.6% | home_-2.5 | 54.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+2.5 | 45.7% | home_-0.5 | 66.8% | away_+0.5 | 33.2% |
| home_+0.5 | 72.5% | away_-0.5 | 27.5% | home_+2.5 | 82.2% |
| away_-2.5 | 17.8% | home_+4.5 | 89.4% | away_-4.5 | 10.6% |
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 | 77.6% | under_6.5 | 22.4% | over_7.5 | 65.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_7.5 | 34.1% | over_8.5 | 53.1% | under_8.5 | 46.9% |
| over_9.5 | 40.5% | under_9.5 | 59.5% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 73.3% | under_3.5 | 26.7% | over_4.5 | 56.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 43.5% | over_5.5 | 39.8% | under_5.5 | 60.2% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 53.1% | under_3.5 | 46.9% | over_4.5 | 34.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 65.6% | over_5.5 | 19.9% | under_5.5 | 80.1% |
most
| home | 59.1% | draw | 12.2% | away | 28.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 33.5% | away_+2.5 | 66.5% | home_-0.5 | 59.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 40.9% | home_+0.5 | 71.2% | away_-0.5 | 28.8% |
| home_+2.5 | 88.8% | away_-2.5 | 11.2% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 | 88.7% | under_2.5 | 11.3% | over_3.5 | 75.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_3.5 | 24.5% | over_4.5 | 58.5% | under_4.5 | 41.5% |
| over_5.5 | 41.0% | under_5.5 | 59.0% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_1.5 | 69.8% | under_1.5 | 30.2% | over_2.5 | 43.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 56.1% |
team_away
| over_1.5 | 75.4% | under_1.5 | 24.6% | over_2.5 | 51.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 49.0% |
most
| home | 36.2% | draw | 18.0% | away | 45.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-1.5 | 21.0% | away_+1.5 | 79.0% | home_-0.5 | 36.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 63.8% | home_+0.5 | 54.1% | away_-0.5 | 45.9% |
| home_+1.5 | 71.2% | away_-1.5 | 28.8% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 | 86.2% | under_20.5 | 13.8% | over_22.5 | 76.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_22.5 | 23.2% | over_24.5 | 65.0% | under_24.5 | 35.0% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_9.5 | 82.7% | under_9.5 | 17.3% | over_11.5 | 66.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 33.4% | over_13.5 | 48.2% | under_13.5 | 51.8% |
team_away
| over_9.5 | 82.2% | under_9.5 | 17.8% | over_11.5 | 66.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 34.0% | over_13.5 | 47.5% | under_13.5 | 52.5% |
most
| home | 47.2% | draw | 6.7% | away | 46.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 28.4% | away_+3.5 | 71.6% | home_-0.5 | 47.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 52.8% | home_+2.5 | 66.6% | away_-2.5 | 33.4% |
Red card range, not a point
any
| yes | 19.8% | no | 80.2% |
|---|
home
| yes | 13.6% | no | 86.4% |
|---|
away
| yes | 7.2% | no | 92.8% |
|---|
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.
Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.
We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.
Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).
More: Castellon predictions · Sabadell predictions · Segunda División
Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.
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