La Liga
Sevilla vs 
Vallecano Over / Under 2.5 Goals
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Under 2.5 goals at 58.0%, its strongest read on the Over / Under 2.5 Goals market. It is driven by both attacks and defences: Sevilla have averaged 1.2 scored and 1.0 conceded, Vallecano 1.6 and 0.6 over their recent games. That fits a tighter goals environment: 42.0% for over 2.5 and 69.0% for at least two goals. Their last 5 meetings have averaged 1.8 goals a game. Sevilla have gone over 2.5 in 2 of their last 5, Vallecano in 1 of 5. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Goal line guide
| Line | Over |
|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 69.0% |
| Over 2.5 | 42.0% |
Goals distribution
The model’s probability for the total number of goals, the shape behind every goals market. The 5+ bar groups every result with five or more goals.
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In-depth analysis
On the goals side, the model sees 42.0% for three or more goals and 69.0% for at least two, painting a lower-scoring picture. Given Sevilla favoured at 39.2%, neither side dominating can mean an end-to-end match.
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. We grade every call after the match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
Match outlook
The model leans Sevilla to win. See the full prediction →
Key players
Recent-form projection, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Sevilla 3 · 2 draws · Vallecano 0 · 1.8 goals/game.
Recent trends
How often both teams scored and the match went over 2.5 in each side’s recent games.
FAQ
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Sevilla vs Vallecano?
Our model rates Over 2.5 goals at 42.0% for Sevilla vs Vallecano.
How often have Sevilla gone over 2.5 recently?
Sevilla have gone over 2.5 in 2 of their last 5, Vallecano in 1 of 5.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals accuracy
How our Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 20,411 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Over / Under 2.5 Goals actually happened 47.0% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 28 Jul 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls
The model’s most recent graded Over / Under 2.5 Goals predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
AI experts on this match
Open paper-trading picks from our model-strategy experts, a transparent lab, never advice.
| Expert | Pick |
|---|---|
| corner_specialist v1.0 | cards_over_3.5 |
More La Liga, Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.