Süper Lig
Rizespor vs 
Samsunspor Cards
Result
Settled, final score 0-2. We don’t store the live count for this market, so there is no graded verdict here.
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 62.6%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Across the lines, the model goes from 80.5% for over 2.5 to 26.7% for over 5.5, with over 4.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 43.3%. Head to head on cards, Samsunspor are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 40.4%, with a level count at 19.9%. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 80.5% | 19.5% |
| 3.5 cards | 62.6% | 37.4% |
| 4.5 cards | 43.3% | 56.7% |
| 5.5 cards | 26.7% | 73.3% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
63.4%
36.5%
63.7%
36.9%
Card handicap
| Rizespor line | Rizespor | Samsunspor |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 22.5% | 77.5% |
| -0.5 | 39.8% | 60.2% |
| +0.5 | 59.7% | 40.4% |
| +1.5 | 77.1% | 22.9% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 86.3% | 13.7% |
| 22.5 fouls | 75.9% | 24.1% |
| 24.5 fouls | 62.8% | 37.2% |
The discipline market is less analysed than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Rizespor vs Samsunspor. The model leans toward Samsunspor for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
62.6%Over 3.5 cards12.7%Any red card63.4%Rizespor over 1.5 cards63.7%Samsunspor over 1.5 cards75.9%Over 22.5 foulsFor the team lines, Rizespor over 1.5 cards sits at 63.4% and Samsunspor at 63.7%. A red card for either side is rated at 12.7% (Rizespor 8.8%, Samsunspor 4.3%).
We publish the model, not a sure thing. We grade every call after the match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Rizespor vs Samsunspor?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 62.6% for Rizespor vs Samsunspor.
Will there be a red card in Rizespor vs Samsunspor?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 12.7%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Rizespor vs Samsunspor?
Before kickoff, the model rated Samsunspor to pick up more cards at 40.4%, with a level count at 19.9%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 10,079 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Cards actually happened 65.7% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 14 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Süper Lig, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.