Corum vs Kasimpasa: model prediction
Süper LigOver 1.5 goals
Corum or draw
Draw or Kasimpasa
Full time1 of 2 calls right
Our most likely call was Corum at 37.2%, and it was wrong. We called Under 2.5 at 52.6% and it landed (1 goals). We called Yes at 53.0% and it missed.
Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.
Prediction summary
Top 3 convictions
Model read
▾
"Corum or Kasimpasa? We publish probabilities, not certainties." Expect a tight one: the model splits Corum and Kasimpasa almost evenly, Corum marginally on top at 37%. The market is more convinced than we are, pricing Corum at 43%. Caution noted. Totals sit close to the fence: 48% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 53%. As a promoted side, Corum carry exactly the structural uncertainty our priors were built for. Recent form reads W0 D1 L0 for Corum against W2 D2 L2 for Kasimpasa. Verdict: no bet. Conservative ev -0.011 <= 0.
Value & higher-risk angles
Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.
Model vs market
37.2%-5.6%
27.8%+1.6%
35.0%+4.1%
conservative EV -0.011 <= 0
Goals markets
Strong chance
Reasonable chance
Good chance
Corners markets
Good chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Low chance
Shots markets
Strong chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Low chance
Totals line guide
Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.
Form & head-to-head
Season stats
Season 2026/27, real results only
Corum
KasimpasaBookmaker odds
Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Goals
Corners
Cards
Shots on target
Shots
Fouls
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots on target
| Over 6.5 | 71.7% | Over 7.5 | 59.6% | Over 8.5 | 47.1% | Over 9.5 | 35.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Corum | 61.3% | Most: Kasimpasa | 27.0% | ||||
| Corum Over 4.2 | 53.7% | Kasimpasa Over 4.2 | 28.7% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 | 83.3% | Over 3.5 | 66.8% | Over 4.5 | 47.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Corum | 33.0% | Most: Kasimpasa | 48.0% | ||
| Corum Over 1.8 | 61.3% | Kasimpasa Over 1.8 | 71.0% |
Clean sheet & win to nil
| Corum clean sheet | 28.3% |
|---|---|
| Kasimpasa clean sheet | 26.9% |
| Corum win to nil | 20.0% |
| Kasimpasa win to nil | 18.7% |
Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home | 37.2% | draw | 27.8% | away | 35.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
double_chance
| 1X | 65.0% | 12 | 72.2% | X2 | 62.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
dnb
| home | 51.5% | away | 48.5% |
|---|
btts
| yes | 53.0% | no | 47.0% |
|---|
clean_sheet
| home | 28.3% | away | 27.0% |
|---|
win_to_nil
| home | 20.0% | away | 18.7% |
|---|
winning_margin
| home_by_1 | 20.3% | home_by_2 | 11.0% | home_by_3plus | 5.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_by_1 | 19.5% | away_by_2 | 10.2% | away_by_3plus | 5.3% |
correct_score
| 0-0 | 8.3% | 0-1 | 9.0% | 0-2 | 6.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | 2.6% | 0-4 | 0.8% | 0-5 | 0.2% |
| 1-0 | 9.4% | 1-1 | 13.3% | 1-2 | 8.0% |
| 1-3 | 3.4% | 1-4 | 1.1% | 1-5 | 0.3% |
| 2-0 | 6.6% | 2-1 | 8.3% | 2-2 | 5.2% |
| 2-3 | 2.2% | 2-4 | 0.7% | 2-5 | 0.2% |
| 3-0 | 2.9% | 3-1 | 3.6% | 3-2 | 2.3% |
| 3-3 | 1.0% | 3-4 | 0.3% | 3-5 | 0.1% |
| 4-0 | 0.9% | 4-1 | 1.2% | 4-2 | 0.8% |
| 4-3 | 0.3% | 4-4 | 0.1% | 4-5 | 0.0% |
| 5-0 | 0.3% | 5-1 | 0.3% | 5-2 | 0.2% |
| 5-3 | 0.1% | 5-4 | 0.0% | 5-5 | 0.0% |
| other | 0.4% |
likeliest_score
| h | 100.0% | a | 100.0% | p | 13.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 | 91.7% | under_0.5 | 8.3% | over_1.5 | 73.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 26.7% | over_2.5 | 47.4% | under_2.5 | 52.6% |
| over_3.5 | 25.8% | under_3.5 | 74.2% | over_4.5 | 11.9% |
| under_4.5 | 88.1% | over_5.5 | 4.7% | under_5.5 | 95.3% |
odd_even
| odd | 48.4% | even | 51.6% |
|---|
team_home
| over_0.5 | 73.0% | under_0.5 | 27.0% | over_1.5 | 37.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 62.3% | over_2.5 | 14.5% | under_2.5 | 85.5% |
team_away
| over_0.5 | 71.7% | under_0.5 | 28.3% | over_1.5 | 36.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 64.0% | over_2.5 | 13.4% | under_2.5 | 86.6% |
most
| home | 37.2% | draw | 27.8% | away | 35.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 5.9% | away_+2.5 | 94.1% | home_-1.5 | 16.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 83.1% | home_-0.5 | 37.2% | away_+0.5 | 62.8% |
| home_+0.5 | 65.0% | away_-0.5 | 35.0% | home_+1.5 | 84.5% |
| away_-1.5 | 15.5% | home_+2.5 | 94.7% | away_-2.5 | 5.3% |
total_exact
| exact_0 | 8.3% | exact_1 | 18.4% | exact_2 | 25.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 21.7% | exact_4 | 13.9% | exact_5 | 7.2% |
| exact_6 | 3.1% | exact_7plus | 1.6% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 39.0% | draw | 42.8% | away | 18.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 67.3% | under_0.5 | 32.7% | over_1.5 | 30.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 69.3% | over_2.5 | 10.3% | under_2.5 | 89.7% |
btts
| yes | 16.8% | no | 83.2% |
|---|
total_exact
| exact_0 | 32.7% | exact_1 | 36.6% | exact_2 | 20.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 7.6% | exact_4plus | 2.7% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 40.9% | draw | 32.8% | away | 26.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 82.9% | under_0.5 | 17.1% | over_1.5 | 52.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 47.3% | over_2.5 | 26.0% | under_2.5 | 74.0% |
btts
| yes | 33.6% | no | 66.4% |
|---|
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H | 31.2% | H/D | 5.6% | H/A | 2.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D/H | 17.5% | D/D | 14.1% | D/A | 11.2% |
| A/H | 2.5% | A/D | 4.1% | A/A | 11.6% |
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 | 69.6% | under_7.5 | 30.4% | over_8.5 | 57.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_8.5 | 42.5% | over_9.5 | 45.2% | under_9.5 | 54.8% |
| over_10.5 | 33.8% | under_10.5 | 66.2% | over_11.5 | 24.1% |
| under_11.5 | 75.9% | over_12.5 | 16.3% | under_12.5 | 83.7% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 70.7% | under_3.5 | 29.3% | over_4.5 | 55.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 45.0% | over_5.5 | 39.8% | under_5.5 | 60.2% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 58.4% | under_3.5 | 41.7% | over_4.5 | 41.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 58.8% | over_5.5 | 26.8% | under_5.5 | 73.2% |
most
| home | 53.6% | draw | 10.8% | away | 35.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 23.1% | away_+3.5 | 76.9% | home_-1.5 | 42.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 57.4% | home_-0.5 | 53.6% | away_+0.5 | 46.4% |
| home_+0.5 | 64.4% | away_-0.5 | 35.6% | home_+1.5 | 74.2% |
| away_-1.5 | 25.8% | home_+3.5 | 88.5% | away_-3.5 | 11.5% |
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 | 62.1% | under_22.5 | 37.9% | over_24.5 | 49.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_24.5 | 50.1% | over_26.5 | 38.0% | under_26.5 | 62.1% |
| over_28.5 | 27.3% | under_28.5 | 72.7% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_10.5 | 74.1% | under_10.5 | 26.0% | over_12.5 | 58.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 41.5% | over_14.5 | 42.6% | under_14.5 | 57.4% |
team_away
| over_10.5 | 50.4% | under_10.5 | 49.6% | over_12.5 | 33.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 67.0% | over_14.5 | 19.5% | under_14.5 | 80.5% |
most
| home | 64.8% | draw | 5.6% | away | 29.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-4.5 | 40.3% | away_+4.5 | 59.7% | home_-2.5 | 52.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+2.5 | 47.4% | home_-0.5 | 64.8% | away_+0.5 | 35.3% |
| home_+0.5 | 70.4% | away_-0.5 | 29.6% | home_+2.5 | 80.2% |
| away_-2.5 | 19.8% | home_+4.5 | 87.7% | away_-4.5 | 12.3% |
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 | 71.7% | under_6.5 | 28.3% | over_7.5 | 59.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_7.5 | 40.4% | over_8.5 | 47.1% | under_8.5 | 52.9% |
| over_9.5 | 35.4% | under_9.5 | 64.6% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 69.9% | under_3.5 | 30.1% | over_4.5 | 53.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 46.3% | over_5.5 | 38.1% | under_5.5 | 61.9% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 45.9% | under_3.5 | 54.1% | over_4.5 | 28.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 71.3% | over_5.5 | 16.2% | under_5.5 | 83.8% |
most
| home | 61.3% | draw | 11.7% | away | 27.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 36.3% | away_+2.5 | 63.7% | home_-0.5 | 61.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 38.7% | home_+0.5 | 73.0% | away_-0.5 | 27.0% |
| home_+2.5 | 89.6% | away_-2.5 | 10.5% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 | 83.3% | under_2.5 | 16.7% | over_3.5 | 66.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_3.5 | 33.2% | over_4.5 | 47.9% | under_4.5 | 52.1% |
| over_5.5 | 30.7% | under_5.5 | 69.3% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_1.5 | 61.3% | under_1.5 | 38.7% | over_2.5 | 34.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 65.7% |
team_away
| over_1.5 | 71.0% | under_1.5 | 29.0% | over_2.5 | 45.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 54.7% |
most
| home | 33.0% | draw | 19.0% | away | 48.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-1.5 | 17.8% | away_+1.5 | 82.2% | home_-0.5 | 33.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 67.0% | home_+0.5 | 52.0% | away_-0.5 | 48.0% |
| home_+1.5 | 70.3% | away_-1.5 | 29.7% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 | 86.9% | under_20.5 | 13.2% | over_22.5 | 76.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_22.5 | 23.3% | over_24.5 | 63.7% | under_24.5 | 36.3% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_9.5 | 80.4% | under_9.5 | 19.6% | over_11.5 | 61.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 38.4% | over_13.5 | 40.9% | under_13.5 | 59.1% |
team_away
| over_9.5 | 86.3% | under_9.5 | 13.7% | over_11.5 | 70.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 29.5% | over_13.5 | 50.8% | under_13.5 | 49.2% |
most
| home | 39.5% | draw | 7.2% | away | 53.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 20.7% | away_+3.5 | 79.3% | home_-0.5 | 39.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 60.5% | home_+2.5 | 61.1% | away_-2.5 | 38.9% |
Red card range, not a point
any
| yes | 26.3% | no | 73.7% |
|---|
home
| yes | 11.3% | no | 88.7% |
|---|
away
| yes | 17.0% | no | 83.0% |
|---|
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.
Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.
We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.
Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).
More: Corum predictions · Kasimpasa predictions · Süper Lig
Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.
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