ChampionshipQPR vs Middlesbrough Corners
Result
We called Over 9.5 at 54.2% and it landed (15 in the match).
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 9.5 corners at 52.7%, its strongest read on the Corners market. The total-corners ladder runs from 76.8% for over 7.5 to 22.6% for over 12.5, with over 9.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 54.2%. Between the two sides, QPR are the model’s pick to win the corner count at 52.1%, with a level count at 10.7%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Corners
Total corners, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 7.5 corners | 76.8% | 23.2% |
| 8.5 corners | 66.0% | 34.0% |
| 9.5 corners | 54.2% | 45.8% |
| 10.5 corners | 42.5% | 57.5% |
| 11.5 corners | 31.7% | 68.3% |
| 12.5 corners | 22.6% | 77.4% |
Who wins the corner count
Team corner lines
74.9%
59.8%
44.4%
65.6%
48.8%
33.4%
Corner handicap
| QPR line | QPR | Middlesbrough |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 41.3% | 58.7% |
| -0.5 | 52.1% | 47.9% |
| +0.5 | 62.7% | 37.3% |
| +1.5 | 72.5% | 27.5% |
Corner counts follow pressure and wide play, below are the model total-corner probabilities. It leans to QPR.
In-depth analysis
Split by side, QPR over 4.5 corners sits at 59.8% and Middlesbrough at 48.8%.
Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many corners in QPR vs Middlesbrough?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 9.5 total corners at 54.2% for QPR vs Middlesbrough.
Which team will win the corner count in QPR vs Middlesbrough?
Before kickoff, the model rated QPR to win the corner count at 52.1%, with a level count at 10.7%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Corners accuracy
How our Corners calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 23,691 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Corners actually happened 54.1% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 13 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Corners calls
The model’s most recent graded Corners predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Championship, Corners
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.