QPR vs Middlesbrough prediction & probabilities (2026-09-05)

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QPR vs Middlesbrough: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 5 Sep 2026

Championship
QPR

LWDWW

Full time0-1Sat, 5 Sep 202615:00UK
Middlesbrough

DWLWD

Model’s top convictions

77%

Over 1.5 goals

67%

Draw or Middlesbrough

64%

Over 8.5 corners

Full time7 of 11 calls right

Post-Match Analysis

QPR 0-1 Middlesbrough
✓ Result✕ Over 2.5 goals✕ Over 1.5 goals✓ Over 3.5 goals✕ Both teams to score✓ First-half goal✕ Second-half goal✓ Over 9.5 corners✓ Over 3.5 cards✓ Over 24.5 shots✓ Over 7.5 shots on target✓ Red card
8 of 12 published calls on this match were right.

Our most likely call was Middlesbrough at 40.9%, and it was correct. We called Over 2.5 at 52.4% and it missed (1 goals). We called Over 1.5 at 77.0% and it missed (1 goals). We called Under 3.5 at 69.8% and it landed (1 goals). We called Yes at 56.6% and it missed. We called Yes at 71.6% and it landed. We called Yes at 78.0% and it missed. We called Over 9.5 at 54.2% and it landed (15 corners). We called Under 3.5 at 53.4% and it landed (3 yellow cards). We called Over 24.5 at 51.0% and it landed (32 shots). We called Over 7.5 at 61.2% and it landed (11 shots on target). We called No at 94.8% and it landed.

Match data QPR Middlesbrough
Goals, 1st half 0 1
Goals, 2nd half 0 0
Shots 16 16
Shots on target 5 6
Corners 12 3
Yellow cards 1 2
Red cards 0 0
Fouls 3 8

Final match data.

Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
MiddlesbroughWin probability
40.9%
Top 3 convictions

Over 1.5 goals77.0%Strong chancePays @ 1.30
Draw or Middlesbrough67.4%Strong chancePays @ 1.48
Over 8.5 corners63.5%Strong chancePays @ 1.57

Model read

▾

Little between these two in the data. Middlesbrough at 41% is as close to a call as the model will offer for 5 September 2026. Three angles decide this preview: 1) The market is more convinced than we are, pricing Middlesbrough at 44%. Caution noted. 2) No strong lean on goals (52% Over 2.5). The interest, if any, lives elsewhere. 3) The recent series reads 0 wins for QPR, 0 draws and 5 for Middlesbrough over 5 games, 3.6 goals on average. Form guide over the last six: QPR W3 D1 L2, Middlesbrough W3 D2 L1. Verdict: no bet. Conservative ev -0.015 <= 0.

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 10.5 corners42.3%@ 2.36
Middlesbrough win40.9%@ 2.44
Over 11.5 corners32.7%@ 3.06
Medium risk

QPR or draw59.1%@ 1.69
Both teams to score56.6%@ 1.77
Over 9.5 corners52.7%@ 1.90
Random finds

1-1 correct score12.6%@ 7.97
1-2 correct score8.8%@ 11.31
0-1 correct score8.6%@ 11.57

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

QPR

32.6%+3.7%

Draw

26.5%-0.6%

Middlesbrough

40.9%-3.0%

ModelMarket

conservative EV -0.015 <= 0

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.577.0%

Strong chance

Over 2.552.4%

Good chance

BTTS · Yes56.6%

Good chance

Corners markets

Over 8.563.5%

Strong chance

Over 9.552.7%

Good chance

Over 10.542.3%

Reasonable chance

Over 11.532.7%

Toss-up

Most cornersQPR52.0%Middlesbrough37.2%

Shots markets

Over 22.563.4%

Strong chance

Over 24.551.0%

Good chance

Over 26.538.8%

Toss-up

Over 28.527.9%

Low chance

Totals line guide

0.5·1.577.0%2.552.4%3.5·4.5·
Our pre-match focusOver 1.577.0%

Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.

Form & head-to-head

QPRLWDWW
MiddlesbroughDWLWD

Last 5 meetings: QPR 0 · 0 draws · Middlesbrough 5 · 3.6 goals/game.

2026-03-08QPR 0-4 Middlesbrough
2025-12-13Middlesbrough 3-1 QPR
2025-03-11Middlesbrough 2-1 QPR
2024-11-05QPR 1-4 Middlesbrough
2024-03-09QPR 0-2 Middlesbrough

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

QPRMiddlesbrough
League position#2 of 24#6 of 24
Record W-D-L3-1-02-1-1
Current streakW2D1
Record, home vs away1-1-00-1-1
Red cards this season00

League averages this season: 2.94 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 67% · BTTS in 73%. Full league tables & stats →

Bookmaker odds

Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.

BookmakerOur fair
QPR win3.203.07
Draw3.403.77
Middlesbrough win2.152.44
Over 2.5 goals1.731.91
Under 2.5 goals2.102.10

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

QPR win3.07
Draw3.78
Middlesbrough win2.44
Both teams to score1.77

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.07
Over 1.5 goals1.30
Over 2.5 goals1.91
Over 3.5 goals3.31
QPR most3.07
Middlesbrough most2.44

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.30
Over 8.5 corners1.51
Over 9.5 corners1.85
Over 10.5 corners2.36
QPR most1.92
Middlesbrough most2.68

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.47
Over 3.5 cards2.15
Over 4.5 cards3.62
Over 5.5 cards6.95
QPR most2.65
Middlesbrough most2.50

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.37
Over 7.5 SoT1.63
Over 8.5 SoT2.05
Over 9.5 SoT2.70
QPR most2.00
Middlesbrough most2.68

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.58
Over 24.5 shots1.96
Over 26.5 shots2.58
Over 28.5 shots3.59
QPR most1.76
Middlesbrough most2.71

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.86
Over 22.5 fouls2.63
Over 24.5 fouls4.09
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots on target

Over 6.5 73.1% Over 7.5 61.2% Over 8.5 48.8% Over 9.5 37.0%
Most: QPR 50.1% Most: Middlesbrough 37.4%
QPR Over 4.2 47.2% Middlesbrough Over 4.2 38.1%

Cards

Over 2.5 68.1% Over 3.5 46.6% Over 4.5 27.7%
Most: QPR 37.8% Most: Middlesbrough 40.0%
QPR Over 1.8 51.6% Middlesbrough Over 1.8 53.2%

Clean sheet & win to nil

QPR clean sheet 22.8%
Middlesbrough clean sheet 27.3%
QPR win to nil 15.9%
Middlesbrough win to nil 20.5%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 32.6% draw 26.5% away 40.9%
double_chance
1X 59.1% 12 73.5% X2 67.4%
dnb
home 44.3% away 55.7%
btts
yes 56.6% no 43.4%
clean_sheet
home 22.8% away 27.4%
win_to_nil
home 16.0% away 20.6%
winning_margin
home_by_1 18.1% home_by_2 9.5% home_by_3plus 5.0%
away_by_1 20.8% away_by_2 12.4% away_by_3plus 7.8%
correct_score
0-0 6.9% 0-1 8.6% 0-2 6.8%
0-3 3.4% 0-4 1.3% 0-5 0.4%
1-0 7.5% 1-1 12.6% 1-2 8.8%
1-3 4.4% 1-4 1.6% 1-5 0.5%
2-0 5.2% 2-1 7.7% 2-2 5.7%
2-3 2.8% 2-4 1.0% 2-5 0.3%
3-0 2.3% 3-1 3.3% 3-2 2.5%
3-3 1.2% 3-4 0.4% 3-5 0.1%
4-0 0.7% 4-1 1.1% 4-2 0.8%
4-3 0.4% 4-4 0.2% 4-5 0.0%
5-0 0.2% 5-1 0.3% 5-2 0.2%
5-3 0.1% 5-4 0.0% 5-5 0.0%
other 0.6%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 12.6%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 93.2% under_0.5 6.9% over_1.5 77.0%
under_1.5 23.0% over_2.5 52.4% under_2.5 47.6%
over_3.5 30.2% under_3.5 69.8% over_4.5 14.8%
under_4.5 85.2% over_5.5 6.3% under_5.5 93.7%
odd_even
odd 48.6% even 51.4%
team_home
over_0.5 72.6% under_0.5 27.4% over_1.5 37.1%
under_1.5 62.9% over_2.5 14.2% under_2.5 85.8%
team_away
over_0.5 77.2% under_0.5 22.8% over_1.5 43.5%
under_1.5 56.5% over_2.5 18.6% under_2.5 81.4%
most
home 32.6% draw 26.5% away 40.9%
handicap
home_-2.5 5.0% away_+2.5 95.0% home_-1.5 14.5%
away_+1.5 85.6% home_-0.5 32.6% away_+0.5 67.4%
home_+0.5 59.1% away_-0.5 40.9% home_+1.5 79.9%
away_-1.5 20.2% home_+2.5 92.2% away_-2.5 7.8%
total_exact
exact_0 6.9% exact_1 16.1% exact_2 24.6%
exact_3 22.2% exact_4 15.4% exact_5 8.5%
exact_6 3.9% exact_7plus 2.3%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 22.9% draw 40.4% away 36.7%
total
over_0.5 71.6% under_0.5 28.4% over_1.5 35.8%
under_1.5 64.2% over_2.5 13.4% under_2.5 86.7%
btts
yes 21.2% no 78.9%
total_exact
exact_0 28.4% exact_1 35.8% exact_2 22.5%
exact_3 9.4% exact_4plus 3.9%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 31.4% draw 36.5% away 32.0%
total
over_0.5 78.0% under_0.5 22.0% over_1.5 44.7%
under_1.5 55.3% over_2.5 19.5% under_2.5 80.6%
btts
yes 28.2% no 71.8%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 16.8% H/D 4.3% H/A 1.9%
D/H 12.7% D/D 14.8% D/A 12.9%
A/H 2.7% A/D 6.2% A/A 27.9%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 76.8% under_7.5 23.2% over_8.5 66.0%
under_8.5 34.0% over_9.5 54.2% under_9.5 45.8%
over_10.5 42.5% under_10.5 57.5% over_11.5 31.7%
under_11.5 68.3% over_12.5 22.6% under_12.5 77.4%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 74.9% under_3.5 25.1% over_4.5 59.8%
under_4.5 40.2% over_5.5 44.4% under_5.5 55.6%
team_away
over_3.5 65.6% under_3.5 34.4% over_4.5 48.8%
under_4.5 51.2% over_5.5 33.4% under_5.5 66.6%
most
home 52.1% draw 10.7% away 37.3%
handicap
home_-3.5 22.4% away_+3.5 77.6% home_-1.5 41.3%
away_+1.5 58.7% home_-0.5 52.1% away_+0.5 47.9%
home_+0.5 62.7% away_-0.5 37.3% home_+1.5 72.5%
away_-1.5 27.5% home_+3.5 87.2% away_-3.5 12.8%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 63.4% under_22.5 36.6% over_24.5 51.0%
under_24.5 49.0% over_26.5 38.8% under_26.5 61.2%
over_28.5 27.9% under_28.5 72.1%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 70.7% under_10.5 29.3% over_12.5 53.9%
under_12.5 46.1% over_14.5 37.5% under_14.5 62.5%
team_away
over_10.5 57.7% under_10.5 42.3% over_12.5 39.6%
under_12.5 60.4% over_14.5 24.5% under_14.5 75.5%
most
home 56.9% draw 6.2% away 37.0%
handicap
home_-4.5 32.2% away_+4.5 67.8% home_-2.5 44.3%
away_+2.5 55.7% home_-0.5 56.9% away_+0.5 43.1%
home_+0.5 63.1% away_-0.5 37.0% home_+2.5 74.3%
away_-2.5 25.7% home_+4.5 83.4% away_-4.5 16.6%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 73.1% under_6.5 26.9% over_7.5 61.2%
under_7.5 38.8% over_8.5 48.8% under_8.5 51.2%
over_9.5 37.0% under_9.5 63.0%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 64.5% under_3.5 35.5% over_4.5 47.3%
under_4.5 52.8% over_5.5 31.9% under_5.5 68.2%
team_away
over_3.5 55.8% under_3.5 44.2% over_4.5 38.1%
under_4.5 61.9% over_5.5 23.7% under_5.5 76.3%
most
home 50.1% draw 12.5% away 37.4%
handicap
home_-2.5 26.4% away_+2.5 73.6% home_-0.5 50.1%
away_+0.5 49.9% home_+0.5 62.6% away_-0.5 37.4%
home_+2.5 83.0% away_-2.5 17.0%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 68.1% under_2.5 31.9% over_3.5 46.6%
under_3.5 53.4% over_4.5 27.7% under_4.5 72.3%
over_5.5 14.4% under_5.5 85.6%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 51.6% under_1.5 48.4% over_2.5 25.0%
under_2.5 75.0%
team_away
over_1.5 53.2% under_1.5 46.8% over_2.5 26.5%
under_2.5 73.6%
most
home 37.8% draw 22.2% away 40.0%
handicap
home_-1.5 19.4% away_+1.5 80.6% home_-0.5 37.8%
away_+0.5 62.2% home_+0.5 60.0% away_-0.5 40.0%
home_+1.5 79.0% away_-1.5 21.0%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 53.8% under_20.5 46.2% over_22.5 38.0%
under_22.5 62.0% over_24.5 24.5% under_24.5 75.5%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 64.4% under_9.5 35.6% over_11.5 42.2%
under_11.5 57.8% over_13.5 23.4% under_13.5 76.6%
team_away
over_9.5 55.4% under_9.5 44.7% over_11.5 33.0%
under_11.5 67.0% over_13.5 16.4% under_13.5 83.6%
most
home 52.7% draw 8.0% away 39.3%
handicap
home_-3.5 29.3% away_+3.5 70.7% home_-0.5 52.7%
away_+0.5 47.3% home_+2.5 75.1% away_-2.5 24.9%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 5.2% no 94.8%
home
yes 3.0% no 97.0%
away
yes 2.2% no 97.8%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: QPR predictions · Middlesbrough predictions · Championship

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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ChampionshipQPRMiddlesbroughTrack record