Rotherham vs Salford prediction & probabilities (2026-09-12)

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Rotherham vs Salford: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 12 Sep 2026

League Two
Rotherham

LDWDL

Sat, 12 Sep 202615:00UK
Salford

LLLWW

Model’s top convictions

73%

Draw or Salford

70%

Over 1.5 goals

60%

Over 8.5 corners

Fairly pricedConservative EV -0.019 <= 0.

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
SalfordWin probability
45.1%
Top 3 convictions

Draw or Salford73.3%Strong chancePays @ 1.36
Over 1.5 goals70.2%Strong chancePays @ 1.42
Over 8.5 corners59.5%Good chancePays @ 1.68

Model read

▾

Rotherham versus Salford on 12 September 2026 tilts towards Salford in our numbers (45%), with plenty left over for the other outcomes. The numbers that frame it: • Notably, the model is warmer on Salford than the market (40%). We flag disagreement rather than hide it. • The model expects a tight, grinding game, just 44% on Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 49%. • As a promoted side, Rotherham carry exactly the structural uncertainty our priors were built for. • Form guide over the last six: Rotherham W1 D2 L2, Salford W2 D1 L3. Verdict: no bet. Conservative ev -0.019 <= 0.

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Salford win45.1%@ 2.22
Over 2.5 goals43.5%@ 2.30
Over 10.5 corners38.4%@ 2.60
Medium risk

Under 2.5 goals56.5%@ 1.77
Rotherham or draw54.9%@ 1.82
Not both teams to score51.3%@ 1.95
Random finds

1-1 correct score13.3%@ 7.51
0-1 correct score11.8%@ 8.45
0-0 correct score9.6%@ 10.47

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Rotherham

26.7%-6.6%

Draw

28.2%+1.7%

Salford

45.1%+4.9%

ModelMarket

conservative EV -0.019 <= 0

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.570.2%

Strong chance

Over 2.543.5%

Reasonable chance

BTTS · Yes48.7%

Reasonable chance

Corners markets

Over 8.559.5%

Good chance

Over 9.548.7%

Reasonable chance

Over 10.538.4%

Toss-up

Over 11.529.3%

Low chance

Most cornersRotherham51.9%Salford37.1%

Shots markets

Over 22.559.5%

Good chance

Over 24.546.8%

Reasonable chance

Over 26.534.8%

Toss-up

Over 28.524.3%

Low chance

Recent shot volume

Rotherham12.6 taken10.8 faced
Salford15.7 taken12.0 faced

Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.

Totals line guide

0.5·1.570.2%2.543.5%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 1.570.2%

Discipline: Fairly priced. Conservative EV -0.019 <= 0.

Form & head-to-head

RotherhamLDWDL
SalfordLLLWW

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

RotherhamSalford
League position#18 of 24#15 of 24
Record W-D-L1-2-22-0-3
Current streakL1W2
Points per game1.001.20
Record, home vs away1-1-00-0-2
Goals scored per game1.200.80
Goals conceded per game1.401.20
1st half goals per game0.400.00
2nd half goals per game0.800.80
Corners won per game3.85.8
Cards per game2.01.4
Fouls per game11.011.4
Red cards this season00
Shots per game12.615.4
Shots faced per game10.812.0
Shots on target per game3.23.2
Over 2.5 rate

60.0%40.0%

BTTS rate

80.0%40.0%

Clean sheets

0.0%20.0%

Rates this season:RotherhamSalford

League averages this season: 2.67 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 50% · BTTS in 57%. Full league tables & stats →

Bookmaker odds

Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.

BookmakerOur fair
Rotherham win2.753.75
Draw3.403.55
Salford win2.302.22
Over 2.5 goals1.752.30
Under 2.5 goals2.051.77

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Rotherham win3.75
Draw3.55
Salford win2.22
Both teams to score2.05

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.11
Over 1.5 goals1.42
Over 2.5 goals2.30
Over 3.5 goals4.44
Rotherham most3.75
Salford most2.22

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.37
Over 8.5 corners1.63
Over 9.5 corners2.02
Over 10.5 corners2.62
Rotherham most1.92
Salford most2.69

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.41
Over 3.5 cards1.99
Over 4.5 cards3.24
Over 5.5 cards5.99
Rotherham most3.13
Salford most2.14

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.57
Over 7.5 SoT1.97
Over 8.5 SoT2.60
Over 9.5 SoT3.61
Rotherham most2.04
Salford most2.65

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.68
Over 24.5 shots2.14
Over 26.5 shots2.88
Over 28.5 shots4.11
Rotherham most1.85
Salford most2.52

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.40
Over 22.5 fouls1.76
Over 24.5 fouls2.41
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots

Over 22.5 59.5% Over 24.5 46.8% Over 26.5 34.7% Over 28.5 24.3%
Most: Rotherham 53.9% Most: Salford 39.7%
Rotherham Over 13.2 40.5% Salford Over 13.2 30.8%

Shots on target

Over 6.5 63.8% Over 7.5 50.9% Over 8.5 38.5% Over 9.5 27.7%
Most: Rotherham 49.1% Most: Salford 37.8%
Rotherham Over 4.2 39.5% Salford Over 4.2 31.5%

Cards

Over 2.5 71.1% Over 3.5 50.1% Over 4.5 30.9%
Most: Rotherham 31.9% Most: Salford 46.8%
Rotherham Over 1.8 49.2% Salford Over 1.8 60.1%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Rotherham clean sheet 24.6%
Salford clean sheet 36.0%
Rotherham win to nil 15.1%
Salford win to nil 26.5%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 26.7% draw 28.2% away 45.1%
double_chance
1X 54.9% 12 71.8% X2 73.3%
dnb
home 37.2% away 62.8%
btts
yes 48.8% no 51.2%
clean_sheet
home 24.6% away 36.2%
win_to_nil
home 15.1% away 26.6%
winning_margin
home_by_1 16.6% home_by_2 7.2% home_by_3plus 2.9%
away_by_1 23.1% away_by_2 13.7% away_by_3plus 8.3%
correct_score
0-0 9.6% 0-1 11.8% 0-2 8.7%
0-3 4.1% 0-4 1.4% 0-5 0.4%
1-0 8.4% 1-1 13.3% 1-2 8.9%
1-3 4.2% 1-4 1.5% 1-5 0.4%
2-0 4.6% 2-1 6.5% 2-2 4.5%
2-3 2.1% 2-4 0.7% 2-5 0.2%
3-0 1.6% 3-1 2.2% 3-2 1.5%
3-3 0.7% 3-4 0.3% 3-5 0.1%
4-0 0.4% 4-1 0.6% 4-2 0.4%
4-3 0.2% 4-4 0.1% 4-5 0.0%
5-0 0.1% 5-1 0.1% 5-2 0.1%
5-3 0.0% 5-4 0.0% 5-5 0.0%
other 0.4%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 13.3%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 90.5% under_0.5 9.6% over_1.5 70.2%
under_1.5 29.8% over_2.5 43.5% under_2.5 56.5%
over_3.5 22.5% under_3.5 77.5% over_4.5 9.8%
under_4.5 90.2% over_5.5 3.7% under_5.5 96.3%
odd_even
odd 48.3% even 51.7%
team_home
over_0.5 63.8% under_0.5 36.2% over_1.5 27.1%
under_1.5 72.9% over_2.5 8.4% under_2.5 91.6%
team_away
over_0.5 75.4% under_0.5 24.6% over_1.5 40.9%
under_1.5 59.1% over_2.5 16.7% under_2.5 83.3%
most
home 26.7% draw 28.2% away 45.1%
handicap
home_-2.5 2.9% away_+2.5 97.2% home_-1.5 10.1%
away_+1.5 89.9% home_-0.5 26.7% away_+0.5 73.3%
home_+0.5 54.9% away_-0.5 45.1% home_+1.5 78.0%
away_-1.5 22.0% home_+2.5 91.7% away_-2.5 8.3%
total_exact
exact_0 9.6% exact_1 20.3% exact_2 26.7%
exact_3 21.0% exact_4 12.7% exact_5 6.1%
exact_6 2.5% exact_7plus 1.2%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 25.0% draw 46.3% away 28.6%
total
over_0.5 63.5% under_0.5 36.5% over_1.5 26.8%
under_1.5 73.3% over_2.5 8.2% under_2.5 91.8%
btts
yes 15.7% no 84.4%
total_exact
exact_0 36.5% exact_1 36.8% exact_2 18.6%
exact_3 6.2% exact_4plus 2.0%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 33.8% draw 38.7% away 27.5%
total
over_0.5 74.6% under_0.5 25.4% over_1.5 39.8%
under_1.5 60.2% over_2.5 15.9% under_2.5 84.1%
btts
yes 24.5% no 75.6%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 19.3% H/D 4.3% H/A 1.5%
D/H 15.7% D/D 17.9% D/A 12.7%
A/H 2.4% A/D 5.6% A/A 20.6%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 72.8% under_7.5 27.2% over_8.5 61.5%
under_8.5 38.5% over_9.5 49.6% under_9.5 50.4%
over_10.5 38.2% under_10.5 61.8% over_11.5 28.1%
under_11.5 71.9% over_12.5 19.8% under_12.5 80.2%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 72.1% under_3.5 28.0% over_4.5 56.7%
under_4.5 43.4% over_5.5 41.5% under_5.5 58.5%
team_away
over_3.5 62.4% under_3.5 37.6% over_4.5 45.5%
under_4.5 54.5% over_5.5 30.7% under_5.5 69.3%
most
home 52.0% draw 10.8% away 37.2%
handicap
home_-3.5 22.2% away_+3.5 77.8% home_-1.5 41.1%
away_+1.5 58.9% home_-0.5 52.0% away_+0.5 48.0%
home_+0.5 62.8% away_-0.5 37.2% home_+1.5 72.7%
away_-1.5 27.4% home_+3.5 87.4% away_-3.5 12.6%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 59.5% under_22.5 40.5% over_24.5 46.8%
under_24.5 53.2% over_26.5 34.8% under_26.5 65.3%
over_28.5 24.3% under_28.5 75.7%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 66.5% under_10.5 33.5% over_12.5 49.0%
under_12.5 51.0% over_14.5 32.7% under_14.5 67.3%
team_away
over_10.5 57.0% under_10.5 43.0% over_12.5 38.8%
under_12.5 61.2% over_14.5 23.8% under_14.5 76.2%
most
home 53.9% draw 6.4% away 39.7%
handicap
home_-4.5 29.2% away_+4.5 70.9% home_-2.5 41.1%
away_+2.5 58.9% home_-0.5 53.9% away_+0.5 46.1%
home_+0.5 60.3% away_-0.5 39.7% home_+2.5 72.1%
away_-2.5 27.9% home_+4.5 81.8% away_-4.5 18.2%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 63.8% under_6.5 36.2% over_7.5 50.9%
under_7.5 49.1% over_8.5 38.5% under_8.5 61.5%
over_9.5 27.7% under_9.5 72.3%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 56.8% under_3.5 43.2% over_4.5 39.5%
under_4.5 60.5% over_5.5 25.2% under_5.5 74.8%
team_away
over_3.5 48.7% under_3.5 51.3% over_4.5 31.5%
under_4.5 68.5% over_5.5 18.6% under_5.5 81.4%
most
home 49.1% draw 13.1% away 37.8%
handicap
home_-2.5 24.9% away_+2.5 75.1% home_-0.5 49.1%
away_+0.5 50.9% home_+0.5 62.2% away_-0.5 37.8%
home_+2.5 83.4% away_-2.5 16.6%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 71.1% under_2.5 28.9% over_3.5 50.1%
under_3.5 49.9% over_4.5 30.9% under_4.5 69.1%
over_5.5 16.7% under_5.5 83.3%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 49.2% under_1.5 50.8% over_2.5 23.1%
under_2.5 77.0%
team_away
over_1.5 60.1% under_1.5 39.9% over_2.5 33.0%
under_2.5 67.0%
most
home 31.9% draw 21.3% away 46.8%
handicap
home_-1.5 15.6% away_+1.5 84.5% home_-0.5 31.9%
away_+0.5 68.1% home_+0.5 53.2% away_-0.5 46.8%
home_+1.5 73.3% away_-1.5 26.7%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 71.4% under_20.5 28.6% over_22.5 56.7%
under_22.5 43.3% over_24.5 41.5% under_24.5 58.5%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 71.0% under_9.5 29.0% over_11.5 49.6%
under_11.5 50.4% over_13.5 29.5% under_13.5 70.6%
team_away
over_9.5 73.1% under_9.5 26.9% over_11.5 52.1%
under_11.5 47.9% over_13.5 31.7% under_13.5 68.3%
most
home 44.4% draw 7.7% away 47.9%
handicap
home_-3.5 23.5% away_+3.5 76.4% home_-0.5 44.4%
away_+0.5 55.6% home_+2.5 67.0% away_-2.5 33.0%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 12.3% no 87.7%
home
yes 2.0% no 98.0%
away
yes 10.6% no 89.4%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Rotherham predictions · Salford predictions · League Two

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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