Port Vale vs Crewe: model prediction
League TwoDraw or Crewe
Over 1.5 goals
Over 8.5 corners
Full time2 of 2 calls right
Our most likely call was Crewe at 43.3%, and it was wrong. We called Under 2.5 at 56.6% and it landed (0 goals). We called No at 51.0% and it landed.
Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.
Prediction summary
Top 3 convictions
Model read
▾
Port Vale versus Crewe on 29 August 2026 tilts towards Crewe in our numbers (43%), with plenty left over for the other outcomes. Three angles decide this preview: 1) Notably, the model is warmer on Crewe than the market (29%). We flag disagreement rather than hide it. 2) This shapes as a low scoring affair: Over 2.5 is only 43% with both teams to score at 49%. 3) The run in: Port Vale arrive W1 D2 L3, Crewe W2 D1 L3. As a promoted side, Port Vale carry exactly the structural uncertainty our priors were built for. History adds colour: across the last 5 meetings it is 4 wins for Port Vale, 1 draws and 0 for Crewe at 1.2 goals per match. Verdict: no bet. Too extreme an outsider (fair 0.29).
Value & higher-risk angles
Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.
Model vs market
28.3%-15.3%
28.4%+0.7%
43.3%+14.6%
too extreme an outsider (fair 0.29)
Goals markets
Strong chance
Reasonable chance
Reasonable chance
Corners markets
Strong chance
Good chance
Toss-up
Toss-up
Shots markets
Good chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Low chance
Totals line guide
Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Port Vale 4 · 1 draws · Crewe 0 · 1.2 goals/game.
Season stats
Season 2026/27, real results only
League averages this season: 2.42 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 46% · BTTS in 46%. Full league tables & stats →
Bookmaker odds
Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Goals
Corners
Cards
Shots on target
Shots
Fouls
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots on target
| Over 6.5 | 61.3% | Over 7.5 | 48.2% | Over 8.5 | 35.9% | Over 9.5 | 25.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Port Vale | 52.2% | Most: Crewe | 34.7% | ||||
| Port Vale Over 4.2 | 39.8% | Crewe Over 4.2 | 27.6% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 | 74.0% | Over 3.5 | 53.8% | Over 4.5 | 34.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Port Vale | 33.9% | Most: Crewe | 45.2% | ||
| Port Vale Over 1.8 | 53.3% | Crewe Over 1.8 | 61.3% |
Clean sheet & win to nil
| Port Vale clean sheet | 25.6% |
|---|---|
| Crewe clean sheet | 34.8% |
| Port Vale win to nil | 16.0% |
| Crewe win to nil | 25.3% |
Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home | 28.3% | draw | 28.4% | away | 43.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
double_chance
| 1X | 56.7% | 12 | 71.6% | X2 | 71.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
dnb
| home | 39.6% | away | 60.4% |
|---|
btts
| yes | 49.0% | no | 51.0% |
|---|
clean_sheet
| home | 25.6% | away | 34.9% |
|---|
win_to_nil
| home | 16.0% | away | 25.4% |
|---|
winning_margin
| home_by_1 | 17.3% | home_by_2 | 7.8% | home_by_3plus | 3.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_by_1 | 22.6% | away_by_2 | 13.1% | away_by_3plus | 7.6% |
correct_score
| 0-0 | 9.6% | 0-1 | 11.5% | 0-2 | 8.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | 3.8% | 0-4 | 1.3% | 0-5 | 0.4% |
| 1-0 | 8.8% | 1-1 | 13.5% | 1-2 | 8.7% |
| 1-3 | 4.0% | 1-4 | 1.4% | 1-5 | 0.4% |
| 2-0 | 5.0% | 2-1 | 6.7% | 2-2 | 4.6% |
| 2-3 | 2.1% | 2-4 | 0.7% | 2-5 | 0.2% |
| 3-0 | 1.7% | 3-1 | 2.4% | 3-2 | 1.6% |
| 3-3 | 0.7% | 3-4 | 0.3% | 3-5 | 0.1% |
| 4-0 | 0.5% | 4-1 | 0.6% | 4-2 | 0.4% |
| 4-3 | 0.2% | 4-4 | 0.1% | 4-5 | 0.0% |
| 5-0 | 0.1% | 5-1 | 0.1% | 5-2 | 0.1% |
| 5-3 | 0.0% | 5-4 | 0.0% | 5-5 | 0.0% |
| other | 0.4% |
likeliest_score
| h | 100.0% | a | 100.0% | p | 13.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 | 90.4% | under_0.5 | 9.6% | over_1.5 | 70.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 29.9% | over_2.5 | 43.4% | under_2.5 | 56.6% |
| over_3.5 | 22.4% | under_3.5 | 77.6% | over_4.5 | 9.8% |
| under_4.5 | 90.2% | over_5.5 | 3.7% | under_5.5 | 96.3% |
odd_even
| odd | 48.3% | even | 51.7% |
|---|
team_home
| over_0.5 | 65.1% | under_0.5 | 34.9% | over_1.5 | 28.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 71.7% | over_2.5 | 9.0% | under_2.5 | 91.0% |
team_away
| over_0.5 | 74.4% | under_0.5 | 25.6% | over_1.5 | 39.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 60.5% | over_2.5 | 15.8% | under_2.5 | 84.3% |
most
| home | 28.3% | draw | 28.4% | away | 43.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 3.2% | away_+2.5 | 96.8% | home_-1.5 | 11.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 89.0% | home_-0.5 | 28.3% | away_+0.5 | 71.7% |
| home_+0.5 | 56.7% | away_-0.5 | 43.3% | home_+1.5 | 79.4% |
| away_-1.5 | 20.7% | home_+2.5 | 92.4% | away_-2.5 | 7.6% |
total_exact
| exact_0 | 9.6% | exact_1 | 20.3% | exact_2 | 26.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 21.0% | exact_4 | 12.7% | exact_5 | 6.1% |
| exact_6 | 2.5% | exact_7plus | 1.2% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 35.1% | draw | 46.0% | away | 18.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 63.1% | under_0.5 | 36.9% | over_1.5 | 26.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 73.7% | over_2.5 | 8.0% | under_2.5 | 92.0% |
btts
| yes | 14.5% | no | 85.5% |
|---|
total_exact
| exact_0 | 36.9% | exact_1 | 36.8% | exact_2 | 18.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 6.1% | exact_4plus | 1.9% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 26.9% | draw | 39.7% | away | 33.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 73.1% | under_0.5 | 26.9% | over_1.5 | 37.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 62.2% | over_2.5 | 14.6% | under_2.5 | 85.4% |
btts
| yes | 23.0% | no | 77.0% |
|---|
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H | 25.8% | H/D | 6.7% | H/A | 2.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D/H | 12.4% | D/D | 18.3% | D/A | 15.4% |
| A/H | 1.1% | A/D | 3.3% | A/A | 14.4% |
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 | 74.6% | under_7.5 | 25.4% | over_8.5 | 63.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_8.5 | 36.4% | over_9.5 | 51.8% | under_9.5 | 48.2% |
| over_10.5 | 40.3% | under_10.5 | 59.7% | over_11.5 | 30.0% |
| under_11.5 | 70.0% | over_12.5 | 21.3% | under_12.5 | 78.7% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 72.6% | under_3.5 | 27.4% | over_4.5 | 57.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 42.8% | over_5.5 | 42.0% | under_5.5 | 58.0% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 64.8% | under_3.5 | 35.2% | over_4.5 | 48.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 51.9% | over_5.5 | 33.0% | under_5.5 | 67.0% |
most
| home | 50.7% | draw | 10.7% | away | 38.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 21.4% | away_+3.5 | 78.6% | home_-1.5 | 40.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 60.0% | home_-0.5 | 50.7% | away_+0.5 | 49.3% |
| home_+0.5 | 61.5% | away_-0.5 | 38.5% | home_+1.5 | 71.4% |
| away_-1.5 | 28.6% | home_+3.5 | 86.5% | away_-3.5 | 13.5% |
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 | 56.5% | under_22.5 | 43.5% | over_24.5 | 43.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_24.5 | 56.3% | over_26.5 | 31.8% | under_26.5 | 68.2% |
| over_28.5 | 21.8% | under_28.5 | 78.2% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_10.5 | 68.2% | under_10.5 | 31.9% | over_12.5 | 50.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 49.1% | over_14.5 | 34.5% | under_14.5 | 65.5% |
team_away
| over_10.5 | 50.4% | under_10.5 | 49.6% | over_12.5 | 32.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 67.6% | over_14.5 | 18.7% | under_14.5 | 81.3% |
most
| home | 59.8% | draw | 6.2% | away | 34.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-4.5 | 34.2% | away_+4.5 | 65.8% | home_-2.5 | 46.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+2.5 | 53.2% | home_-0.5 | 59.8% | away_+0.5 | 40.2% |
| home_+0.5 | 66.0% | away_-0.5 | 34.0% | home_+2.5 | 77.1% |
| away_-2.5 | 22.9% | home_+4.5 | 85.8% | away_-4.5 | 14.2% |
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 | 61.3% | under_6.5 | 38.7% | over_7.5 | 48.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_7.5 | 51.8% | over_8.5 | 35.9% | under_8.5 | 64.1% |
| over_9.5 | 25.5% | under_9.5 | 74.5% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 57.0% | under_3.5 | 43.0% | over_4.5 | 39.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 60.2% | over_5.5 | 25.6% | under_5.5 | 74.4% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 44.3% | under_3.5 | 55.7% | over_4.5 | 27.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 72.4% | over_5.5 | 15.7% | under_5.5 | 84.3% |
most
| home | 52.2% | draw | 13.1% | away | 34.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 27.1% | away_+2.5 | 72.9% | home_-0.5 | 52.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 47.8% | home_+0.5 | 65.3% | away_-0.5 | 34.7% |
| home_+2.5 | 85.6% | away_-2.5 | 14.4% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 | 74.0% | under_2.5 | 26.0% | over_3.5 | 53.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_3.5 | 46.2% | over_4.5 | 34.3% | under_4.5 | 65.7% |
| over_5.5 | 19.3% | under_5.5 | 80.7% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_1.5 | 53.3% | under_1.5 | 46.7% | over_2.5 | 26.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 73.5% |
team_away
| over_1.5 | 61.4% | under_1.5 | 38.7% | over_2.5 | 34.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 65.7% |
most
| home | 33.9% | draw | 20.9% | away | 45.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-1.5 | 17.3% | away_+1.5 | 82.7% | home_-0.5 | 33.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 66.1% | home_+0.5 | 54.8% | away_-0.5 | 45.2% |
| home_+1.5 | 74.2% | away_-1.5 | 25.9% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 | 76.0% | under_20.5 | 24.0% | over_22.5 | 62.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_22.5 | 37.7% | over_24.5 | 47.3% | under_24.5 | 52.7% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_9.5 | 74.7% | under_9.5 | 25.3% | over_11.5 | 54.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 45.9% | over_13.5 | 33.6% | under_13.5 | 66.4% |
team_away
| over_9.5 | 75.9% | under_9.5 | 24.1% | over_11.5 | 55.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 44.3% | over_13.5 | 35.1% | under_13.5 | 64.9% |
most
| home | 45.1% | draw | 7.6% | away | 47.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 24.4% | away_+3.5 | 75.6% | home_-0.5 | 45.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 54.9% | home_+2.5 | 67.3% | away_-2.5 | 32.7% |
Red card range, not a point
any
| yes | 15.9% | no | 84.1% |
|---|
home
| yes | 7.6% | no | 92.4% |
|---|
away
| yes | 9.0% | no | 91.1% |
|---|
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.
Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.
We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.
Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).
More: Port Vale predictions · Crewe predictions · League Two
Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.
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