Ligue 1
Paris SG vs Stade Rennais FC Over / Under 2.5 Goals
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 2.5 goals at 68.2%, its strongest read on the Over / Under 2.5 Goals market. That fits an open goals environment: 68.2% for over 2.5 and 86.9% for at least two goals. Paris SG have gone over 2.5 in 3 of their last 5. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Total goals, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 96.7% | 3.3% |
| 1.5 goals | 86.9% | 13.1% |
| 2.5 goals | 68.2% | 31.8% |
| 3.5 goals | 46.6% | 53.4% |
| 4.5 goals | 27.7% | 72.3% |
| 5.5 goals | 14.4% | 85.6% |
Team goal lines
93.6%
76.1%
52.0%
53.2%
17.7%
4.2%
First-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 75.0% | 25.0% |
| 1.5 goals | 40.4% | 59.6% |
| 2.5 goals | 16.4% | 83.7% |
Second-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 84.1% | 15.9% |
| 1.5 goals | 54.8% | 45.2% |
| 2.5 goals | 28.0% | 72.0% |
Goals distribution
The model’s probability for the total number of goals, the shape behind every goals market. The 5+ bar groups every result with five or more goals.
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In-depth analysis
50.1%Both Teams to Score68.2%Over 2.5 goalsLooking at totals, the model sees 68.2% for three or more goals and 86.9% for at least two, painting a balanced picture. With Paris SG favoured at 81.3%, a one-sided game can cap the goals at one end.
Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
Match outlook
The model leans Paris SG to win. See the full prediction →
Form & head-to-head
Recent trends
How often both teams scored and the match went over 2.5 in each side’s recent games.
FAQ
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Paris SG vs Stade Rennais FC?
Our model rates Over 2.5 goals at 68.2% for Paris SG vs Stade Rennais FC.
Will there be a first-half goal in Paris SG vs Stade Rennais FC?
The model rates at least one goal before half-time at 75.0%.
How often have Paris SG gone over 2.5 recently?
Paris SG have gone over 2.5 in 3 of their last 5.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals accuracy
How our Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 6,496 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Over / Under 2.5 Goals actually happened 62.0% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 11 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls
The model’s most recent graded Over / Under 2.5 Goals predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Ligue 1, Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.