Paris SG vs Stade Rennais FC: model prediction
Ligue 1
Paris SGWDWWL
Sun, 23 Aug 202619:45UK
Stade Rennais FC
Model’s top convictions
92%
Paris SG or draw
87%
Over 1.5 goals
68%
Over 2.5 goals
No bet
Prediction summary
Top 3 convictions
Model’s best bet
Paris SGWin probability
81.3%
Top 3 convictions
Paris SG or draw91.8%High probabilityPays @ 1.09
Over 1.5 goals86.9%High probabilityPays @ 1.15
Over 2.5 goals68.2%Strong chancePays @ 1.47
Model read
▾
On paper this is one way traffic: the calibrated model makes Paris SG heavy favourites at 81% when Paris SG meet Stade Rennais FC in the Ligue 1 on 23 August 2026. The numbers that frame it: • Everything in the shot data points to goals, 68% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 50%. • As a promoted side, Stade Rennais FC carry exactly the structural uncertainty our priors were built for. Verdict: no bet. The numbers do not clear our bar.
Value & higher-risk angles
High risk
Over 10.5 corners39.3%@ 2.54
Over 11.5 corners30.2%@ 3.31
Medium risk
Over 8.5 corners60.3%@ 1.66
Both teams to score50.1%@ 2.00
Over 9.5 corners49.6%@ 2.02
Random finds
2-0 correct score11.3%@ 8.84
3-0 correct score10.4%@ 9.63
2-1 correct score8.6%@ 11.67
Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.
Model vs market
Paris SG
81.3%
Draw
10.6%
Stade Rennais FC
8.2%
Model
Goals markets
★ StrongestOver 1.586.9%
High probability
Over 2.568.2%
Strong chance
BTTS · Yes50.1%
Good chance
Corners markets
Over 8.560.3%
Strong chance
Over 9.549.6%
Reasonable chance
Over 10.539.3%
Toss-up
Over 11.530.2%
Toss-up
Most cornersParis SG 64.3% · Stade Rennais FC 25.8%
Totals line guide
0.5·1.586.9%2.568.2%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 2.568.2%
Discipline: NO_ODDS.
Form & head-to-head
Paris SGWDWWL
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Paris SG win1.27
Draw7.17
Stade Rennais FC win13.57
Both teams to score2.00
Goals
Over 1.5 goals1.15
Over 2.5 goals1.47
Over 3.5 goals2.15
Over 4.5 goals3.61
Paris SG most1.27
Stade Rennais FC most13.57
Corners
Over 7.5 corners1.35
Over 8.5 corners1.59
Over 9.5 corners1.97
Over 10.5 corners2.55
Paris SG most1.55
Stade Rennais FC most3.87
Cards
Over 2.5 cards1.67
Over 3.5 cards2.68
Over 4.5 cards4.99
Over 5.5 cards10.68
Paris SG most3.19
Stade Rennais FC most2.22
Shots on target
Over 6.5 SoT1.26
Over 7.5 SoT1.45
Over 8.5 SoT1.75
Over 9.5 SoT2.22
Paris SG most1.49
Stade Rennais FC most4.43
Shots
Over 22.5 shots1.54
Over 24.5 shots1.91
Over 26.5 shots2.51
Over 28.5 shots3.51
Paris SG most1.37
Stade Rennais FC most4.54
Fouls
Over 20.5 fouls1.90
Over 22.5 fouls2.66
Over 24.5 fouls4.06
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots on target
| Over 6.5 | 79.4% | Over 7.5 | 68.8% | Over 8.5 | 57.0% | Over 9.5 | 45.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Paris SG | 67.0% | Most: Stade Rennais FC | 22.6% | ||||
| Paris SG Over 4.2 | 64.0% | Stade Rennais FC Over 4.2 | 31.0% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 | 59.7% | Over 3.5 | 37.4% | Over 4.5 | 20.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Paris SG | 31.4% | Most: Stade Rennais FC | 45.1% | ||
| Paris SG Over 1.8 | 40.4% | Stade Rennais FC Over 1.8 | 50.8% |
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home | 78.7% | draw | 14.0% | away | 7.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
double_chance
| 1X | 92.6% | 12 | 86.1% | X2 | 21.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
dnb
| home | 91.5% | away | 8.6% |
|---|
btts
| yes | 50.1% | no | 49.9% |
|---|
clean_sheet
| home | 46.8% | away | 6.4% |
|---|
win_to_nil
| home | 43.5% | away | 3.1% |
|---|
winning_margin
| home_by_1 | 20.0% | home_by_2 | 21.6% | home_by_3plus | 37.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_by_1 | 5.3% | away_by_2 | 1.6% | away_by_3plus | 0.4% |
correct_score
| 0-0 | 3.3% | 0-1 | 2.0% | 0-2 | 0.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | 0.2% | 0-4 | 0.0% | 0-5 | 0.0% |
| 1-0 | 7.9% | 1-1 | 6.5% | 1-2 | 2.4% |
| 1-3 | 0.6% | 1-4 | 0.1% | 1-5 | 0.0% |
| 2-0 | 11.3% | 2-1 | 8.6% | 2-2 | 3.3% |
| 2-3 | 0.8% | 2-4 | 0.2% | 2-5 | 0.0% |
| 3-0 | 10.4% | 3-1 | 7.9% | 3-2 | 3.0% |
| 3-3 | 0.8% | 3-4 | 0.1% | 3-5 | 0.0% |
| 4-0 | 7.1% | 4-1 | 5.4% | 4-2 | 2.1% |
| 4-3 | 0.5% | 4-4 | 0.1% | 4-5 | 0.0% |
| 5-0 | 3.9% | 5-1 | 3.0% | 5-2 | 1.1% |
| 5-3 | 0.3% | 5-4 | 0.1% | 5-5 | 0.0% |
| other | 6.1% |
likeliest_score
| h | 200.0% | a | 0.0% | p | 11.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 | 96.7% | under_0.5 | 3.3% | over_1.5 | 86.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 13.1% | over_2.5 | 68.2% | under_2.5 | 31.8% |
| over_3.5 | 46.6% | under_3.5 | 53.4% | over_4.5 | 27.7% |
| under_4.5 | 72.3% | over_5.5 | 14.4% | under_5.5 | 85.6% |
odd_even
| odd | 49.3% | even | 50.7% |
|---|
team_home
| over_0.5 | 93.6% | under_0.5 | 6.4% | over_1.5 | 76.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 23.9% | over_2.5 | 52.0% | under_2.5 | 48.0% |
team_away
| over_0.5 | 53.2% | under_0.5 | 46.8% | over_1.5 | 17.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 82.3% | over_2.5 | 4.2% | under_2.5 | 95.8% |
most
| home | 78.7% | draw | 14.0% | away | 7.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 37.1% | away_+2.5 | 62.9% | home_-1.5 | 58.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 41.3% | home_-0.5 | 78.7% | away_+0.5 | 21.3% |
| home_+0.5 | 92.6% | away_-0.5 | 7.4% | home_+1.5 | 97.9% |
| away_-1.5 | 2.1% | home_+2.5 | 99.6% | away_-2.5 | 0.4% |
total_exact
| exact_0 | 3.3% | exact_1 | 9.9% | exact_2 | 18.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 21.5% | exact_4 | 18.9% | exact_5 | 13.3% |
| exact_6 | 7.8% | exact_7plus | 6.6% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 48.4% | draw | 36.1% | away | 15.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 75.0% | under_0.5 | 25.0% | over_1.5 | 40.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 59.6% | over_2.5 | 16.4% | under_2.5 | 83.7% |
btts
| yes | 21.1% | no | 78.9% |
|---|
total_exact
| exact_0 | 25.0% | exact_1 | 34.7% | exact_2 | 24.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 11.1% | exact_4plus | 5.2% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 58.2% | draw | 28.3% | away | 13.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 84.1% | under_0.5 | 15.9% | over_1.5 | 54.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 45.2% | over_2.5 | 28.0% | under_2.5 | 72.0% |
btts
| yes | 28.7% | no | 71.3% |
|---|
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H | 44.0% | H/D | 3.5% | H/A | 0.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D/H | 21.0% | D/D | 10.2% | D/A | 4.9% |
| A/H | 3.9% | A/D | 4.2% | A/A | 7.4% |
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 | 74.2% | under_7.5 | 25.8% | over_8.5 | 62.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_8.5 | 37.1% | over_9.5 | 50.8% | under_9.5 | 49.2% |
| over_10.5 | 39.2% | under_10.5 | 60.8% | over_11.5 | 28.8% |
| under_11.5 | 71.2% | over_12.5 | 20.2% | under_12.5 | 79.8% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 79.4% | under_3.5 | 20.6% | over_4.5 | 65.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 34.2% | over_5.5 | 51.2% | under_5.5 | 48.8% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 53.5% | under_3.5 | 46.5% | over_4.5 | 36.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 63.9% | over_5.5 | 22.3% | under_5.5 | 77.7% |
most
| home | 64.5% | draw | 9.7% | away | 25.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 32.7% | away_+3.5 | 67.3% | home_-1.5 | 53.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 46.2% | home_-0.5 | 64.5% | away_+0.5 | 35.5% |
| home_+0.5 | 74.1% | away_-0.5 | 25.9% | home_+1.5 | 82.2% |
| away_-1.5 | 17.8% | home_+3.5 | 93.0% | away_-3.5 | 7.0% |
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 | 64.8% | under_22.5 | 35.2% | over_24.5 | 52.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_24.5 | 47.8% | over_26.5 | 39.8% | under_26.5 | 60.2% |
| over_28.5 | 28.4% | under_28.5 | 71.6% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_10.5 | 80.2% | under_10.5 | 19.8% | over_12.5 | 65.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 34.2% | over_14.5 | 49.7% | under_14.5 | 50.3% |
team_away
| over_10.5 | 45.7% | under_10.5 | 54.3% | over_12.5 | 28.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 72.0% | over_14.5 | 15.3% | under_14.5 | 84.7% |
most
| home | 72.9% | draw | 5.1% | away | 22.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-4.5 | 48.6% | away_+4.5 | 51.4% | home_-2.5 | 61.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+2.5 | 38.7% | home_-0.5 | 72.9% | away_+0.5 | 27.1% |
| home_+0.5 | 78.0% | away_-0.5 | 22.1% | home_+2.5 | 86.3% |
| away_-2.5 | 13.7% | home_+4.5 | 92.1% | away_-4.5 | 7.9% |
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 | 79.4% | under_6.5 | 20.6% | over_7.5 | 68.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_7.5 | 31.2% | over_8.5 | 57.0% | under_8.5 | 43.0% |
| over_9.5 | 45.1% | under_9.5 | 54.9% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 78.4% | under_3.5 | 21.6% | over_4.5 | 63.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 36.1% | over_5.5 | 48.6% | under_5.5 | 51.4% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 48.8% | under_3.5 | 51.2% | over_4.5 | 31.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 69.0% | over_5.5 | 17.8% | under_5.5 | 82.2% |
most
| home | 67.0% | draw | 10.4% | away | 22.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 43.0% | away_+2.5 | 57.0% | home_-0.5 | 67.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 33.0% | home_+0.5 | 77.4% | away_-0.5 | 22.6% |
| home_+2.5 | 91.6% | away_-2.5 | 8.4% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 | 59.7% | under_2.5 | 40.3% | over_3.5 | 37.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_3.5 | 62.6% | over_4.5 | 20.1% | under_4.5 | 80.0% |
| over_5.5 | 9.4% | under_5.5 | 90.6% |
odd_even
| odd | 49.9% | even | 50.1% |
|---|
team_home
| over_1.5 | 40.4% | under_1.5 | 59.6% | over_2.5 | 16.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 83.6% |
team_away
| over_1.5 | 50.8% | under_1.5 | 49.2% | over_2.5 | 24.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 75.6% |
most
| home | 31.4% | draw | 23.6% | away | 45.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-1.5 | 14.0% | away_+1.5 | 86.0% | home_-0.5 | 31.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 68.6% | home_+0.5 | 54.9% | away_-0.5 | 45.1% |
| home_+1.5 | 76.2% | away_-1.5 | 23.8% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 | 52.7% | under_20.5 | 47.3% | over_22.5 | 37.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_22.5 | 62.4% | over_24.5 | 24.6% | under_24.5 | 75.4% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_9.5 | 56.1% | under_9.5 | 43.9% | over_11.5 | 34.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 65.4% | over_13.5 | 18.2% | under_13.5 | 81.8% |
team_away
| over_9.5 | 61.3% | under_9.5 | 38.7% | over_11.5 | 39.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 60.1% | over_13.5 | 22.3% | under_13.5 | 77.7% |
most
| home | 42.3% | draw | 7.8% | away | 50.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 21.7% | away_+3.5 | 78.3% | home_-0.5 | 42.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 57.7% | home_+2.5 | 65.3% | away_-2.5 | 34.7% |
Red card range, not a point
any
| yes | 15.0% | no | 85.0% |
|---|
home
| yes | 6.4% | no | 93.6% |
|---|
away
| yes | 9.2% | no | 90.8% |
|---|
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
What we use
Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.
Our method
Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.
What we don’t do
We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.
Performance snapshot
Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0097 (54671 matches).
More: Paris SG predictions · Stade Rennais FC predictions · Ligue 1
Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.