Super League Greece
Panetolikos vs 
Kalamata Cards
Result
Settled, final score 2-0. We don’t store the live count for this market, so there is no graded verdict here.
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 71.6%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Across the lines, the model goes from 86.4% for over 2.5 to 36.1% for over 5.5, with over 4.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 53.7%. Head to head on cards, Kalamata are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 49.7%, with a level count at 18.2%. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 86.4% | 13.6% |
| 3.5 cards | 71.6% | 28.4% |
| 4.5 cards | 53.7% | 46.3% |
| 5.5 cards | 36.1% | 63.9% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
64.2%
37.3%
74.9%
50.3%
Card handicap
| Panetolikos line | Panetolikos | Kalamata |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 17.5% | 82.5% |
| -0.5 | 32.2% | 67.9% |
| +0.5 | 50.3% | 49.7% |
| +1.5 | 68.3% | 31.7% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 89.8% | 10.2% |
| 22.5 fouls | 82.1% | 17.9% |
| 24.5 fouls | 71.9% | 28.1% |
Card markets are softer and less efficiently priced than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Panetolikos vs Kalamata. It tips Kalamata for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
71.6%Over 3.5 cards30.8%Any red card64.2%Panetolikos over 1.5 cards74.9%Kalamata over 1.5 cards82.1%Over 22.5 foulsFor the team lines, Panetolikos over 1.5 cards sits at 64.2% and Kalamata at 74.9%. A red card for either side is rated at 30.8% (Panetolikos 11.1%, Kalamata 22.2%).
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Panetolikos vs Kalamata?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 71.6% for Panetolikos vs Kalamata.
Will there be a red card in Panetolikos vs Kalamata?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 30.8%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Panetolikos vs Kalamata?
Before kickoff, the model rated Kalamata to pick up more cards at 49.7%, with a level count at 18.2%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 8,372 matches we rated like this one (70–80%), Cards actually happened 73.2% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 13 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Super League Greece, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.