League TwoNorthampton vs Crawley Town Shots
Result
We called Under 24.5 at 55.5% and it missed (30 in the match). We called Over 7.5 at 50.5% and it landed (8 in the match).
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 24.5 shots at 44.5%, its strongest read on the Shots market. The total-shots ladder runs from 57.3% for over 22.5 to 22.5% for over 28.5, with over 24.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 44.5%. On the shot count, Northampton are the model’s pick to have more shots at 55.5%, with a level count at 6.4%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Shots
Total shots, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 22.5 shots | 57.3% | 42.7% |
| 24.5 shots | 44.5% | 55.5% |
| 26.5 shots | 32.6% | 67.4% |
| 28.5 shots | 22.5% | 77.5% |
Who takes more shots
Team shot lines
66.0%
48.4%
32.3%
54.3%
36.1%
21.6%
Shot handicap
| Northampton line | Northampton | Crawley Town |
|---|---|---|
| -4.5 | 30.3% | 69.7% |
| -2.5 | 42.5% | 57.5% |
| -0.5 | 55.5% | 44.5% |
| +0.5 | 61.9% | 38.1% |
Shots on target
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 shots on target | 63.4% | 36.6% |
| 7.5 shots on target | 50.5% | 49.5% |
| 8.5 shots on target | 38.2% | 61.8% |
| 9.5 shots on target | 27.5% | 72.5% |
Total shots follow which side is chasing the game, below are the model total-shot probabilities. It edges Northampton.
In-depth analysis
44.5%Over 24.5 shots48.4%Northampton over 12.5 shots36.1%Crawley Town over 12.5 shots50.5%Over 7.5 on targetFor the team lines, Northampton over 12.5 shots sits at 48.4% and Crawley Town at 36.1%.
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many shots in Northampton vs Crawley Town?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 24.5 total shots at 44.5% for Northampton vs Crawley Town.
Which team will have more shots in Northampton vs Crawley Town?
Before kickoff, the model rated Northampton to take more shots at 55.5%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Shots accuracy
How our Shots calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 16,635 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Shots actually happened 47.0% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 13 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Shots calls
The model’s most recent graded Shots predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.