League TwoNorthampton vs Crawley Town Correct Score
Result
Final score 1-1. The model gave that exact scoreline 13.7%.
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Most likely · 13.7% at 1-1, its strongest read on the Correct Score market. It is driven by both attacks and defences: Northampton have averaged 0.6 scored and 0.8 conceded, Crawley Town 1.0 and 1.4 over their recent games. That fits a tighter goals environment: 42.4% for over 2.5 and 69.3% for at least two goals. Their last 5 meetings have averaged 2.2 goals a game. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Correct Score
| Scoreline | Probability |
|---|---|
| 1-1 | 13.7% |
| 1-0 | 10.5% |
| 0-1 | 10.3% |
| 0-0 | 10.0% |
| 2-1 | 7.8% |
| 1-2 | 7.7% |
| 2-0 | 6.7% |
| 0-2 | 6.4% |
Score probability grid
| Northampton \ Crawley Town | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10% | 10% | 6% | 3% | 1% | · |
| 1 | 11% | 14% | 8% | 3% | 1% | · |
| 2 | 7% | 8% | 5% | 2% | 1% | · |
| 3 | 3% | 3% | 2% | 1% | · | · |
| 4 | 1% | 1% | 1% | · | · | · |
| 5 | · | · | · | · | · | · |
Rows = Northampton goals, columns = Crawley Town. The most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13.7%. Rather than one score, the model spreads probability across the whole grid, that distribution is the real signal. The brightest cells are where the match is most likely to land.
Goals distribution
The model’s probability for the total number of goals, the shape behind every goals market. The 5+ bar groups every result with five or more goals.
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In-depth analysis
48.9%Both Teams to Score42.4%Over 2.5 goalsOn the goals side, the model sees 42.4% for three or more goals and 69.3% for at least two, painting a lower-scoring picture. With Northampton favoured at 35.9%, a close contest often produces chances at both ends.
Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Northampton 2 · 1 draws · Crawley Town 2 · 2.2 goals/game.
FAQ
What was the score in Northampton vs Crawley Town?
Northampton vs Crawley Town finished 1-1, exactly the model's most likely scoreline (13.7%).
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Overall model accuracy
We don’t yet publish a graded Correct Score-specific track record, so this is our overall accuracy across every 1X2 call, graded out-of-sample, updated daily.
Predictions & track record updated 13 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.