Ligue 1
Monaco vs 
Marseille Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Result
We called Over 2.5 at 63.7% and it missed. We called Under 3.5 at 58.4% and it landed. We called Yes at 68.5% and it landed (1 in the match).
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 2.5 goals at 63.7%, its strongest read on the Over / Under 2.5 Goals market. Recent output points the same way: Monaco have averaged 1.8 scored and 1.8 conceded, Marseille 1.8 and 1.0 over their recent games. That fits an open goals environment: 63.7% for over 2.5 and 84.4% for at least two goals. Their last 5 meetings have averaged 2.8 goals a game. Monaco have gone over 2.5 in 3 of their last 5, Marseille in 3 of 5. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Total goals, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 95.7% | 4.3% |
| 1.5 goals | 84.4% | 15.6% |
| 2.5 goals | 63.7% | 36.3% |
| 3.5 goals | 41.7% | 58.4% |
| 4.5 goals | 23.5% | 76.5% |
| 5.5 goals | 11.6% | 88.4% |
Team goal lines
81.5%
50.3%
24.0%
79.7%
47.4%
21.6%
First-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 68.5% | 31.5% |
| 1.5 goals | 32.1% | 67.9% |
| 2.5 goals | 11.1% | 88.9% |
Second-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 89.7% | 10.3% |
| 1.5 goals | 66.4% | 33.7% |
| 2.5 goals | 39.8% | 60.3% |
Goals distribution
The model’s probability for the total number of goals, the shape behind every goals market. The 5+ bar groups every result with five or more goals.
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In-depth analysis
65.5%Both Teams to Score63.7%Over 2.5 goalsFor the goal environment, the model sees 63.7% for three or more goals and 84.4% for at least two, painting a balanced picture. Given Monaco favoured at 40.4%, a competitive game tends to open up.
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
Match outlook
The model leans Monaco to win. See the full prediction →
Key players
This season’s squad only, rated on recent form; a watch list, not a confirmed lineup.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Monaco 2 · 1 draws · Marseille 2 · 2.8 goals/game.
Recent trends
How often both teams scored and the match went over 2.5 in each side’s recent games.
FAQ
Were there over 2.5 goals in Monaco vs Marseille?
We rated Over 2.5 goals at 63.7%. The match finished with 2 goals (2-0), under 2.5.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals accuracy
How our Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 6,496 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Over / Under 2.5 Goals actually happened 62.0% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 11 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls
The model’s most recent graded Over / Under 2.5 Goals predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Ligue 1, Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.