Metz vs Rodez prediction & probabilities (2026-09-05)

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Metz vs Rodez: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 5 Sep 2026

Ligue 2
Metz

WWDDD

Full time4-1Sat, 5 Sep 202613:00UK
Rodez

WWLWD

Model’s top convictions

77%

Over 1.5 goals

76%

Draw or Rodez

56%

Over 8.5 corners

Full time7 of 11 calls right

Post-Match Analysis

Metz 4-1 Rodez
✕ Result✓ Over 2.5 goals✓ Over 1.5 goals✕ Over 3.5 goals✓ Both teams to score✓ First-half goal✓ Second-half goal✕ Over 9.5 corners✕ Over 3.5 cards✕ Over 24.5 shots✓ Over 7.5 shots on target✓ Red card
7 of 12 published calls on this match were right.

Our most likely call was Rodez at 50.2%, and it was wrong. We called Over 2.5 at 52.7% and it landed (5 goals). We called Over 1.5 at 77.2% and it landed (5 goals). We called Under 3.5 at 69.6% and it missed (5 goals). We called Yes at 54.9% and it landed. We called Yes at 65.1% and it landed. We called Yes at 81.2% and it landed. We called Under 9.5 at 53.8% and it missed (14 corners). We called Over 3.5 at 51.7% and it missed (2 yellow cards). We called Under 24.5 at 58.1% and it missed (38 shots). We called Over 7.5 at 60.5% and it landed (14 shots on target). We called No at 82.0% and it landed.

Match data Metz Rodez
Goals, 1st half 3 1
Goals, 2nd half 1 0
Shots 19 19
Shots on target 8 6
Corners 7 7
Yellow cards 2 0
Red cards 0 0
Fouls 11 11

Final match data.

Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
RodezWin probability
50.2%
Top 3 convictions

Over 1.5 goals77.2%Strong chancePays @ 1.30
Draw or Rodez75.5%Strong chancePays @ 1.32
Over 8.5 corners56.5%Good chancePays @ 1.77

Model read

▾

"50% on Rodez is a measurement, not a promise." A measured edge to Rodez: 50% is the model's line for this Ligue 2 meeting on 5 September 2026. Notably, the model is warmer on Rodez than the market (27%). We flag disagreement rather than hide it. No strong lean on goals (53% Over 2.5). The interest, if any, lives elsewhere. History adds colour: across the last 4 meetings it is 2 wins for Metz, 2 draws and 0 for Rodez at 4.2 goals per match. As a promoted side, Metz carry exactly the structural uncertainty our priors were built for. Form guide over the last six: Metz W2 D4 L0, Rodez W4 D1 L1. Discipline says sit it out: too extreme an outsider (fair 0.27).

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 9.5 corners45.6%@ 2.19
Over 10.5 corners35.4%@ 2.82
Medium risk

Both teams to score54.9%@ 1.82
Over 2.5 goals52.6%@ 1.90
Metz or draw49.8%@ 2.01
Random finds

1-1 correct score12.0%@ 8.31
0-1 correct score9.8%@ 10.21
1-2 correct score9.6%@ 10.42

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Metz

24.5%-20.2%

Draw

25.3%-3.3%

Rodez

50.2%+23.5%

ModelMarket

too extreme an outsider (fair 0.27)

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.577.2%

Strong chance

Over 2.552.6%

Good chance

BTTS · Yes54.9%

Good chance

Corners markets

Over 8.556.5%

Good chance

Over 9.545.6%

Reasonable chance

Over 10.535.4%

Toss-up

Over 11.526.5%

Low chance

Most cornersMetz52.7%Rodez36.2%

Shots markets

Over 22.554.7%

Good chance

Over 24.541.9%

Toss-up

Over 26.530.2%

Toss-up

Over 28.520.5%

Low chance

Totals line guide

0.5·1.577.2%2.552.6%3.5·4.5·
Our pre-match focusOver 1.577.2%

Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.

Form & head-to-head

MetzWWDDD
RodezWWLWD

Last 4 meetings: Metz 2 · 2 draws · Rodez 0 · 4.3 goals/game.

2025-05-02Metz 3-3 Rodez
2024-08-23Rodez 1-3 Metz
2023-01-31Metz 1-1 Rodez
2022-08-30Rodez 1-4 Metz

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

MetzRodez
League position#7 of 18#4 of 18
Record W-D-L1-3-02-1-1
Current streakD3D1
Record, home vs away1-1-01-0-1
Red cards this season10

League averages this season: 2.47 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 42% · BTTS in 47%. Full league tables & stats →

Bookmaker odds

Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.

BookmakerOur fair
Metz win2.054.08
Draw3.103.95
Rodez win3.301.99
Over 2.5 goals1.751.90
Under 2.5 goals2.052.11

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Metz win4.08
Draw3.95
Rodez win1.99
Both teams to score1.82

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.07
Over 1.5 goals1.30
Over 2.5 goals1.90
Over 3.5 goals3.28
Metz most4.08
Rodez most1.99

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.42
Over 8.5 corners1.71
Over 9.5 corners2.16
Over 10.5 corners2.87
Metz most1.89
Rodez most2.76

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.38
Over 3.5 cards1.93
Over 4.5 cards3.10
Over 5.5 cards5.63
Metz most2.77
Rodez most2.36

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.38
Over 7.5 SoT1.65
Over 8.5 SoT2.08
Over 9.5 SoT2.73
Metz most1.71
Rodez most3.36

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.83
Over 24.5 shots2.39
Over 26.5 shots3.31
Over 28.5 shots4.89
Metz most1.61
Rodez most3.16

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.17
Over 22.5 fouls1.34
Over 24.5 fouls1.62
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots on target

Over 6.5 72.4% Over 7.5 60.5% Over 8.5 48.2% Over 9.5 36.6%
Most: Metz 58.4% Most: Rodez 29.8%
Metz Over 4.2 52.4% Rodez Over 4.2 31.6%

Cards

Over 2.5 72.3% Over 3.5 51.7% Over 4.5 32.3%
Most: Metz 36.2% Most: Rodez 42.5%
Metz Over 1.8 53.6% Rodez Over 1.8 58.2%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Metz clean sheet 18.7%
Rodez clean sheet 32.9%
Metz win to nil 12.0%
Rodez win to nil 26.1%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 24.5% draw 25.3% away 50.2%
double_chance
1X 49.8% 12 74.7% X2 75.5%
dnb
home 32.8% away 67.2%
btts
yes 54.9% no 45.1%
clean_sheet
home 18.7% away 33.2%
win_to_nil
home 12.0% away 26.4%
winning_margin
home_by_1 14.9% home_by_2 6.7% home_by_3plus 2.9%
away_by_1 22.9% away_by_2 15.5% away_by_3plus 11.8%
correct_score
0-0 6.8% 0-1 9.8% 0-2 8.7%
0-3 4.9% 0-4 2.1% 0-5 0.7%
1-0 6.3% 1-1 12.0% 1-2 9.6%
1-3 5.4% 1-4 2.3% 1-5 0.8%
2-0 3.8% 2-1 6.3% 2-2 5.3%
2-3 3.0% 2-4 1.3% 2-5 0.4%
3-0 1.4% 3-1 2.3% 3-2 2.0%
3-3 1.1% 3-4 0.5% 3-5 0.2%
4-0 0.4% 4-1 0.7% 4-2 0.5%
4-3 0.3% 4-4 0.1% 4-5 0.0%
5-0 0.1% 5-1 0.1% 5-2 0.1%
5-3 0.1% 5-4 0.0% 5-5 0.0%
other 0.9%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 12.0%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 93.2% under_0.5 6.8% over_1.5 77.2%
under_1.5 22.8% over_2.5 52.7% under_2.5 47.3%
over_3.5 30.5% under_3.5 69.6% over_4.5 15.0%
under_4.5 85.0% over_5.5 6.4% under_5.5 93.6%
odd_even
odd 48.7% even 51.3%
team_home
over_0.5 66.9% under_0.5 33.2% over_1.5 30.3%
under_1.5 69.7% over_2.5 10.1% under_2.5 90.0%
team_away
over_0.5 81.3% under_0.5 18.7% over_1.5 50.0%
under_1.5 50.0% over_2.5 23.8% under_2.5 76.3%
most
home 24.5% draw 25.3% away 50.2%
handicap
home_-2.5 2.9% away_+2.5 97.1% home_-1.5 9.6%
away_+1.5 90.4% home_-0.5 24.5% away_+0.5 75.5%
home_+0.5 49.8% away_-0.5 50.2% home_+1.5 72.7%
away_-1.5 27.3% home_+2.5 88.2% away_-2.5 11.8%
total_exact
exact_0 6.8% exact_1 16.1% exact_2 24.5%
exact_3 22.2% exact_4 15.5% exact_5 8.6%
exact_6 4.0% exact_7plus 2.4%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 37.1% draw 44.4% away 18.5%
total
over_0.5 65.1% under_0.5 34.9% over_1.5 28.4%
under_1.5 71.6% over_2.5 9.0% under_2.5 91.0%
btts
yes 15.6% no 84.4%
total_exact
exact_0 34.9% exact_1 36.7% exact_2 19.4%
exact_3 6.8% exact_4plus 2.3%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 30.0% draw 34.4% away 35.6%
total
over_0.5 81.2% under_0.5 18.8% over_1.5 49.7%
under_1.5 50.3% over_2.5 23.5% under_2.5 76.5%
btts
yes 31.9% no 68.1%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 26.6% H/D 7.0% H/A 3.6%
D/H 13.4% D/D 15.3% D/A 15.8%
A/H 1.5% A/D 3.4% A/A 13.6%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 70.3% under_7.5 29.7% over_8.5 58.4%
under_8.5 41.6% over_9.5 46.2% under_9.5 53.8%
over_10.5 34.8% under_10.5 65.2% over_11.5 25.0%
under_11.5 75.0% over_12.5 17.1% under_12.5 82.9%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 70.9% under_3.5 29.1% over_4.5 55.1%
under_4.5 44.9% over_5.5 39.8% under_5.5 60.2%
team_away
over_3.5 59.8% under_3.5 40.2% over_4.5 42.6%
under_4.5 57.4% over_5.5 27.9% under_5.5 72.1%
most
home 52.8% draw 11.0% away 36.3%
handicap
home_-3.5 22.2% away_+3.5 77.8% home_-1.5 41.6%
away_+1.5 58.4% home_-0.5 52.8% away_+0.5 47.2%
home_+0.5 63.7% away_-0.5 36.3% home_+1.5 73.7%
away_-1.5 26.3% home_+3.5 88.3% away_-3.5 11.7%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 54.7% under_22.5 45.3% over_24.5 41.9%
under_24.5 58.1% over_26.5 30.2% under_26.5 69.8%
over_28.5 20.5% under_28.5 79.6%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 68.5% under_10.5 31.5% over_12.5 51.3%
under_12.5 48.7% over_14.5 34.9% under_14.5 65.1%
team_away
over_10.5 47.3% under_10.5 52.7% over_12.5 29.5%
under_12.5 70.5% over_14.5 16.5% under_14.5 83.5%
most
home 62.2% draw 6.1% away 31.7%
handicap
home_-4.5 36.3% away_+4.5 63.7% home_-2.5 49.2%
away_+2.5 50.8% home_-0.5 62.2% away_+0.5 37.8%
home_+0.5 68.3% away_-0.5 31.7% home_+2.5 79.1%
away_-2.5 20.9% home_+4.5 87.3% away_-4.5 12.7%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 72.4% under_6.5 27.6% over_7.5 60.5%
under_7.5 39.5% over_8.5 48.2% under_8.5 51.8%
over_9.5 36.6% under_9.5 63.4%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 68.7% under_3.5 31.3% over_4.5 52.4%
under_4.5 47.6% over_5.5 37.1% under_5.5 62.9%
team_away
over_3.5 48.9% under_3.5 51.1% over_4.5 31.6%
under_4.5 68.4% over_5.5 18.6% under_5.5 81.4%
most
home 58.4% draw 11.8% away 29.8%
handicap
home_-2.5 33.9% away_+2.5 66.1% home_-0.5 58.4%
away_+0.5 41.6% home_+0.5 70.2% away_-0.5 29.8%
home_+2.5 87.8% away_-2.5 12.2%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 72.3% under_2.5 27.7% over_3.5 51.7%
under_3.5 48.3% over_4.5 32.3% under_4.5 67.7%
over_5.5 17.8% under_5.5 82.2%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 53.6% under_1.5 46.4% over_2.5 26.9%
under_2.5 73.1%
team_away
over_1.5 58.2% under_1.5 41.8% over_2.5 31.1%
under_2.5 68.9%
most
home 36.2% draw 21.4% away 42.5%
handicap
home_-1.5 18.7% away_+1.5 81.3% home_-0.5 36.2%
away_+0.5 63.8% home_+0.5 57.5% away_-0.5 42.5%
home_+1.5 76.6% away_-1.5 23.4%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 85.2% under_20.5 14.8% over_22.5 74.7%
under_22.5 25.3% over_24.5 61.6% under_24.5 38.4%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 76.2% under_9.5 23.8% over_11.5 56.5%
under_11.5 43.5% over_13.5 36.3% under_13.5 63.7%
team_away
over_9.5 86.7% under_9.5 13.3% over_11.5 71.7%
under_11.5 28.3% over_13.5 52.9% under_13.5 47.1%
most
home 35.0% draw 6.8% away 58.2%
handicap
home_-3.5 17.8% away_+3.5 82.2% home_-0.5 35.0%
away_+0.5 65.0% home_+2.5 56.0% away_-2.5 44.0%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 18.0% no 82.0%
home
yes 14.8% no 85.2%
away
yes 3.8% no 96.2%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Metz predictions · Rodez predictions · Ligue 2

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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Ligue 2MetzRodezTrack record