Reims vs Guingamp prediction & probabilities (2026-09-05)

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Reims vs Guingamp: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 5 Sep 2026

Ligue 2
Reims

WDDWW

Full time2-2Sat, 5 Sep 202613:00UK
Guingamp

LLWLD

Model’s top convictions

79%

Reims or draw

78%

Over 1.5 goals

54%

Both teams to score

Full time8 of 11 calls right

Post-Match Analysis

Reims 2-2 Guingamp
✕ Result✓ Over 2.5 goals✓ Over 1.5 goals✕ Over 3.5 goals✓ Both teams to score✓ First-half goal✓ Second-half goal✓ Over 9.5 corners✕ Over 3.5 cards✕ Over 24.5 shots✓ Over 7.5 shots on target✓ Red card
8 of 12 published calls on this match were right.

Our most likely call was Reims at 54.3%, and it was wrong. We called Over 2.5 at 53.8% and it landed (4 goals). We called Over 1.5 at 78.0% and it landed (4 goals). We called Under 3.5 at 68.5% and it missed (4 goals). We called Yes at 54.4% and it landed. We called Yes at 75.0% and it landed. We called Yes at 77.0% and it landed. We called Under 9.5 at 59.6% and it landed (3 corners). We called Over 3.5 at 55.3% and it missed (2 yellow cards). We called Under 24.5 at 59.1% and it missed (26 shots). We called Over 7.5 at 61.5% and it landed (10 shots on target). We called No at 81.3% and it landed.

Match data Reims Guingamp
Goals, 1st half 0 1
Goals, 2nd half 2 1
Shots 9 17
Shots on target 3 7
Corners 0 3
Yellow cards 1 1
Red cards 0 0
Fouls 13 12

Final match data.

Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
ReimsWin probability
54.3%
Top 3 convictions

Reims or draw78.6%High probabilityPays @ 1.27
Over 1.5 goals78.0%High probabilityPays @ 1.28
Both teams to score54.4%Good chancePays @ 1.84

Model read

▾

Reims go into this Ligue 2 meeting with Guingamp on 5 September 2026 as clear favourites; our model has them at 54%. The numbers that frame it: • Bookmakers see it the same way, 53% on Reims, and agreement is historically when our numbers are most reliable. • No strong lean on goals (54% Over 2.5). The interest, if any, lives elsewhere. • Head to head, the last 2 meetings gave 2 wins for Reims, 0 draws and 0 for Guingamp, averaging 1.5 goals a game. • The run in: Reims arrive W3 D3 L0, Guingamp W1 D1 L4. Verdict: no bet. Value_gap +0.017 <= 0.03.

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Draw or Guingamp45.7%@ 2.19
Over 9.5 corners40.4%@ 2.48
Over 10.5 corners30.5%@ 3.28
Medium risk

Over 2.5 goals53.8%@ 1.86
Over 8.5 corners51.4%@ 1.95
Random finds

1-1 correct score11.5%@ 8.67
1-0 correct score10.0%@ 10.01
2-1 correct score9.8%@ 10.18

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Reims

54.3%+1.7%

Draw

24.3%-2.2%

Guingamp

21.4%+0.6%

ModelMarket

value_gap +0.017 <= 0.03

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.578.0%

High probability

Over 2.553.8%

Good chance

BTTS · Yes54.4%

Good chance

Corners markets

Over 8.551.4%

Good chance

Over 9.540.4%

Toss-up

Over 10.530.5%

Toss-up

Over 11.522.2%

Low chance

Most cornersReims51.3%Guingamp37.1%

Shots markets

Over 22.553.8%

Good chance

Over 24.540.9%

Toss-up

Over 26.529.3%

Low chance

Over 28.519.8%

Low chance

Totals line guide

0.5·1.578.0%2.553.8%3.5·4.5·
Our pre-match focusOver 1.578.0%

Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.

Form & head-to-head

ReimsWDDWW
GuingampLLWLD

Last 2 meetings: Reims 2 · 0 draws · Guingamp 0 · 1.5 goals/game.

2026-03-21Guingamp 0-2 Reims
2025-08-16Reims 1-0 Guingamp

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

ReimsGuingamp
League position#2 of 18#11 of 18
Record W-D-L2-2-01-1-2
Current streakW2D1
Record, home vs away1-1-00-0-2
Red cards this season10

League averages this season: 2.47 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 42% · BTTS in 47%. Full league tables & stats →

Bookmaker odds

Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.

BookmakerOur fair
Reims win1.751.84
Draw3.304.12
Guingamp win4.104.67
Over 2.5 goals1.701.86
Under 2.5 goals2.102.16

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Reims win1.84
Draw4.12
Guingamp win4.67
Both teams to score1.84

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.07
Over 1.5 goals1.28
Over 2.5 goals1.86
Over 3.5 goals3.17
Reims most1.84
Guingamp most4.67

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.53
Over 8.5 corners1.90
Over 9.5 corners2.47
Over 10.5 corners3.39
Reims most1.94
Guingamp most2.69

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.33
Over 3.5 cards1.81
Over 4.5 cards2.79
Over 5.5 cards4.89
Reims most2.40
Guingamp most2.66

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.37
Over 7.5 SoT1.63
Over 8.5 SoT2.03
Over 9.5 SoT2.66
Reims most1.85
Guingamp most2.96

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.86
Over 24.5 shots2.44
Over 26.5 shots3.41
Over 28.5 shots5.06
Reims most1.71
Guingamp most2.85

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.17
Over 22.5 fouls1.33
Over 24.5 fouls1.60
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots on target

Over 6.5 73.3% Over 7.5 61.5% Over 8.5 49.3% Over 9.5 37.7%
Most: Reims 54.1% Most: Guingamp 33.7%
Reims Over 4.2 50.3% Guingamp Over 4.2 35.5%

Cards

Over 2.5 75.2% Over 3.5 55.3% Over 4.5 35.8%
Most: Reims 41.6% Most: Guingamp 37.5%
Reims Over 1.8 59.9% Guingamp Over 1.8 57.0%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Reims clean sheet 34.9%
Guingamp clean sheet 16.7%
Reims win to nil 28.5%
Guingamp win to nil 10.3%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 54.3% draw 24.3% away 21.4%
double_chance
1X 78.6% 12 75.7% X2 45.7%
dnb
home 71.7% away 28.3%
btts
yes 54.4% no 45.6%
clean_sheet
home 35.3% away 16.7%
win_to_nil
home 28.8% away 10.3%
winning_margin
home_by_1 23.4% home_by_2 16.8% home_by_3plus 14.1%
away_by_1 13.4% away_by_2 5.7% away_by_3plus 2.3%
correct_score
0-0 6.5% 0-1 5.6% 0-2 3.2%
0-3 1.1% 0-4 0.3% 0-5 0.1%
1-0 10.0% 1-1 11.5% 1-2 5.7%
1-3 2.0% 1-4 0.5% 1-5 0.1%
2-0 9.4% 2-1 9.8% 2-2 5.1%
2-3 1.8% 2-4 0.5% 2-5 0.1%
3-0 5.6% 3-1 5.9% 3-2 3.1%
3-3 1.1% 3-4 0.3% 3-5 0.1%
4-0 2.5% 4-1 2.6% 4-2 1.4%
4-3 0.5% 4-4 0.1% 4-5 0.0%
5-0 0.9% 5-1 0.9% 5-2 0.5%
5-3 0.2% 5-4 0.0% 5-5 0.0%
other 1.1%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 11.5%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 93.6% under_0.5 6.5% over_1.5 78.0%
under_1.5 22.0% over_2.5 53.8% under_2.5 46.2%
over_3.5 31.5% under_3.5 68.5% over_4.5 15.7%
under_4.5 84.3% over_5.5 6.8% under_5.5 93.2%
odd_even
odd 48.7% even 51.3%
team_home
over_0.5 83.3% under_0.5 16.7% over_1.5 53.4%
under_1.5 46.6% over_2.5 26.6% under_2.5 73.4%
team_away
over_0.5 64.7% under_0.5 35.3% over_1.5 28.0%
under_1.5 72.0% over_2.5 8.8% under_2.5 91.2%
most
home 54.3% draw 24.3% away 21.4%
handicap
home_-2.5 14.1% away_+2.5 85.9% home_-1.5 30.9%
away_+1.5 69.1% home_-0.5 54.3% away_+0.5 45.7%
home_+0.5 78.6% away_-0.5 21.4% home_+1.5 92.0%
away_-1.5 8.0% home_+2.5 97.7% away_-2.5 2.3%
total_exact
exact_0 6.5% exact_1 15.6% exact_2 24.2%
exact_3 22.3% exact_4 15.8% exact_5 8.9%
exact_6 4.2% exact_7plus 2.6%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 40.5% draw 37.8% away 21.7%
total
over_0.5 75.0% under_0.5 25.0% over_1.5 40.3%
under_1.5 59.7% over_2.5 16.3% under_2.5 83.7%
btts
yes 23.8% no 76.2%
total_exact
exact_0 25.0% exact_1 34.7% exact_2 24.0%
exact_3 11.1% exact_4plus 5.2%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 47.0% draw 35.3% away 17.7%
total
over_0.5 77.0% under_0.5 23.0% over_1.5 43.2%
under_1.5 56.8% over_2.5 18.4% under_2.5 81.6%
btts
yes 24.0% no 76.0%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 35.4% H/D 4.0% H/A 1.0%
D/H 17.8% D/D 13.3% D/A 6.7%
A/H 3.3% A/D 5.4% A/A 13.1%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 65.3% under_7.5 34.8% over_8.5 52.7%
under_8.5 47.3% over_9.5 40.4% under_9.5 59.6%
over_10.5 29.5% under_10.5 70.5% over_11.5 20.4%
under_11.5 79.6% over_12.5 13.5% under_12.5 86.5%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 67.0% under_3.5 33.0% over_4.5 50.5%
under_4.5 49.5% over_5.5 35.2% under_5.5 64.8%
team_away
over_3.5 57.0% under_3.5 43.0% over_4.5 39.6%
under_4.5 60.4% over_5.5 25.3% under_5.5 74.7%
most
home 51.4% draw 11.4% away 37.2%
handicap
home_-3.5 20.4% away_+3.5 79.6% home_-1.5 39.9%
away_+1.5 60.1% home_-0.5 51.4% away_+0.5 48.6%
home_+0.5 62.8% away_-0.5 37.2% home_+1.5 73.2%
away_-1.5 26.8% home_+3.5 88.4% away_-3.5 11.6%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 53.8% under_22.5 46.3% over_24.5 40.9%
under_24.5 59.1% over_26.5 29.3% under_26.5 70.7%
over_28.5 19.8% under_28.5 80.2%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 65.7% under_10.5 34.3% over_12.5 48.1%
under_12.5 51.9% over_14.5 31.9% under_14.5 68.1%
team_away
over_10.5 49.4% under_10.5 50.6% over_12.5 31.4%
under_12.5 68.6% over_14.5 17.9% under_14.5 82.1%
most
home 58.6% draw 6.3% away 35.1%
handicap
home_-4.5 32.8% away_+4.5 67.2% home_-2.5 45.4%
away_+2.5 54.6% home_-0.5 58.6% away_+0.5 41.4%
home_+0.5 65.0% away_-0.5 35.1% home_+2.5 76.3%
away_-2.5 23.7% home_+4.5 85.3% away_-4.5 14.7%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 73.3% under_6.5 26.7% over_7.5 61.5%
under_7.5 38.5% over_8.5 49.3% under_8.5 50.7%
over_9.5 37.7% under_9.5 62.4%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 66.9% under_3.5 33.1% over_4.5 50.3%
under_4.5 49.7% over_5.5 35.0% under_5.5 65.0%
team_away
over_3.5 53.0% under_3.5 47.0% over_4.5 35.5%
under_4.5 64.5% over_5.5 21.7% under_5.5 78.3%
most
home 54.1% draw 12.1% away 33.8%
handicap
home_-2.5 30.2% away_+2.5 69.8% home_-0.5 54.1%
away_+0.5 45.9% home_+0.5 66.3% away_-0.5 33.8%
home_+2.5 85.2% away_-2.5 14.8%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 75.2% under_2.5 24.8% over_3.5 55.3%
under_3.5 44.7% over_4.5 35.8% under_4.5 64.2%
over_5.5 20.5% under_5.5 79.6%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 59.9% under_1.5 40.1% over_2.5 32.8%
under_2.5 67.2%
team_away
over_1.5 57.0% under_1.5 43.0% over_2.5 30.0%
under_2.5 70.0%
most
home 41.6% draw 20.9% away 37.6%
handicap
home_-1.5 23.1% away_+1.5 76.9% home_-0.5 41.6%
away_+0.5 58.4% home_+0.5 62.5% away_-0.5 37.6%
home_+1.5 80.0% away_-1.5 20.1%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 85.8% under_20.5 14.2% over_22.5 75.4%
under_22.5 24.6% over_24.5 62.6% under_24.5 37.5%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 86.5% under_9.5 13.5% over_11.5 71.5%
under_11.5 28.5% over_13.5 52.6% under_13.5 47.4%
team_away
over_9.5 77.5% under_9.5 22.5% over_11.5 58.2%
under_11.5 41.8% over_13.5 38.0% under_13.5 62.0%
most
home 56.7% draw 6.9% away 36.4%
handicap
home_-3.5 35.7% away_+3.5 64.3% home_-0.5 56.7%
away_+0.5 43.3% home_+2.5 76.0% away_-2.5 24.0%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 18.8% no 81.3%
home
yes 11.1% no 88.9%
away
yes 8.6% no 91.4%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Reims predictions · Guingamp predictions · Ligue 2

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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Ligue 2ReimsGuingampTrack record