ChampionshipLincoln vs Blackburn Cards
Result
We called Over 3.5 at 50.5% and it landed (5 in the match). We called No at 94.1% and it missed (1 in the match).
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 50.5%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Line by line, the read runs from 71.4% for over 2.5 to 16.9% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 50.5%. On the card count, Blackburn are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 49.6%, with a level count at 21.0%. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 71.4% | 28.6% |
| 3.5 cards | 50.5% | 49.5% |
| 4.5 cards | 31.2% | 68.8% |
| 5.5 cards | 16.9% | 83.1% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
47.3%
21.5%
62.1%
35.1%
Card handicap
| Lincoln line | Lincoln | Blackburn |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 13.9% | 86.1% |
| -0.5 | 29.4% | 70.6% |
| +0.5 | 50.4% | 49.6% |
| +1.5 | 70.8% | 29.2% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 57.7% | 42.3% |
| 22.5 fouls | 42.0% | 58.0% |
| 24.5 fouls | 27.9% | 72.1% |
Card markets are softer and less efficiently priced than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Lincoln vs Blackburn. It tips Blackburn for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
50.5%Over 3.5 cards5.9%Any red card47.3%Lincoln over 1.5 cards62.1%Blackburn over 1.5 cards42.0%Over 22.5 foulsFor the team lines, Lincoln over 1.5 cards sits at 47.3% and Blackburn at 62.1%. A red card for either side is rated at 5.9% (Lincoln 3.6%, Blackburn 2.4%).
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Lincoln vs Blackburn?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 50.5% for Lincoln vs Blackburn.
Will there be a red card in Lincoln vs Blackburn?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 5.9%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Lincoln vs Blackburn?
Before kickoff, the model rated Blackburn to pick up more cards at 49.6%, with a level count at 21.0%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 11,059 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 13 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Championship, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.