Result

The match produced 1.61 xG for Le Havre and 3.01 xG for Brest, against a final score of 1-2. The chances and the scoreline broadly agreed.

Expected Goals (xG)

1.21Le Havre xG created/game

1.68Le Havre xG conceded/game

2.03Brest xG created/game

1.55Brest xG conceded/game

Recent xG created & conceded (per game)

Le Havre have created 1.21 xG and scored 1.33 per game over their last 6, tracking their xG closely. Brest have created 2.03 xG and scored 1.00 per game over their last 6, scoring below their xG.

Real Understat xG, recent games only (the five leagues we cover for xG). xG measures chance quality, not a tip.

In-depth analysis

37.8%Favoured: Le Havre

53.9%Both Teams to Score

48.7%Over 2.5 goals

We publish the model, not a sure thing. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.

Match outlook

The model leans Le Havre to win. See the full prediction →

Key players

This season’s squad only, rated on recent form; a watch list, not a confirmed lineup.

Form & head-to-head

Last 5 meetings: Le Havre 1 · 0 draws · Brest 4 · 1.4 goals/game.

FAQ

How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.

Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.

Overall model accuracy

We don’t yet publish a graded Expected Goals (xG)-specific track record, so this is our overall accuracy across every 1X2 call, graded out-of-sample, updated daily.

Predictions & track record updated 12 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →

More Ligue 1, Expected Goals (xG)

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