Karlsruhe vs Wolfsburg: model prediction
2. BundesligaOver 1.5 goals
Karlsruhe or draw
Over 8.5 corners
Full time2 of 2 calls right
Our most likely call was Karlsruhe at 56.2%, and it was wrong. We called Over 2.5 at 62.3% and it landed (7 goals). We called Yes at 60.8% and it landed.
Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.
Prediction summary
Top 3 convictions
Model read
▾
On paper this is one way traffic: the calibrated model makes Karlsruhe heavy favourites at 56% when Karlsruhe meet Wolfsburg in the 2. Bundesliga on 29 August 2026. Our number sits above the market's 29% for Karlsruhe. The gap itself is information. The goals profile is lively: Over 2.5 sits at 62% with both teams to score at 61%. Recent form reads W2 D2 L2 for Karlsruhe against W1 D1 L0 for Wolfsburg. As a promoted side, Wolfsburg carry exactly the structural uncertainty our priors were built for. The engine passes on this one (too extreme an outsider (fair 0.29)).
Value & higher-risk angles
Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.
Model vs market
56.2%+26.9%
22.3%-2.9%
21.5%-24.0%
too extreme an outsider (fair 0.29)
Goals markets
High probability
Strong chance
Strong chance
Corners markets
Strong chance
Good chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Shots markets
Strong chance
Strong chance
Good chance
Toss-up
Totals line guide
Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.
Form & head-to-head
Season stats
Season 2026/27, real results only
WolfsburgPlayers to watch
Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup
@ 4.26
@ 1.92
@ 1.97
@ 5.59
@ 2.11
@ 2.54
@ 3.94
@ 1.89
@ 1.53
Bookmaker odds
Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Goals
Corners
Cards
Shots on target
Shots
Fouls
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots on target
| Over 6.5 | 81.3% | Over 7.5 | 71.1% | Over 8.5 | 59.4% | Over 9.5 | 47.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Karlsruhe | 49.1% | Most: Wolfsburg | 38.8% | ||||
| Karlsruhe Over 4.2 | 54.0% | Wolfsburg Over 4.2 | 46.7% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 | 79.6% | Over 3.5 | 61.4% | Over 4.5 | 42.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Karlsruhe | 38.9% | Most: Wolfsburg | 41.1% | ||
| Karlsruhe Over 1.8 | 61.9% | Wolfsburg Over 1.8 | 63.4% |
Wolfsburg: players to watch (recent-form projection)
O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.
| Player | Shots/90 | SoT/90 | Goals/90 | 1+ SoT | 2+ shots | To score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dzenan Pejcinovic | 3.18 | 1.37 | 0.5 | 52.0% | 50.7% | 23.5% |
| Tiago Tomás | 2.07 | 0.98 | 0.3 | 47.4% | 39.3% | 17.9% |
| Mohammed Amoura | 2.74 | 0.93 | 0.36 | 53.0% | 65.2% | 25.4% |
| Jonas Wind | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.37 | 37.1% | 33.5% | 21.7% |
| Mattias Svanberg | 1.84 | 0.69 | 0.28 | 29.5% | 23.9% | 13.2% |
Clean sheet & win to nil
| Karlsruhe clean sheet | 29.9% |
|---|---|
| Wolfsburg clean sheet | 13.2% |
| Karlsruhe win to nil | 25.4% |
| Wolfsburg win to nil | 8.7% |
Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home | 56.2% | draw | 22.3% | away | 21.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
double_chance
| 1X | 78.5% | 12 | 77.7% | X2 | 43.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
dnb
| home | 72.3% | away | 27.7% |
|---|
btts
| yes | 60.9% | no | 39.2% |
|---|
clean_sheet
| home | 30.4% | away | 13.2% |
|---|
win_to_nil
| home | 25.9% | away | 8.7% |
|---|
winning_margin
| home_by_1 | 22.3% | home_by_2 | 17.2% | home_by_3plus | 16.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_by_1 | 12.9% | away_by_2 | 5.9% | away_by_3plus | 2.7% |
correct_score
| 0-0 | 4.5% | 0-1 | 4.3% | 0-2 | 2.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | 1.1% | 0-4 | 0.3% | 0-5 | 0.1% |
| 1-0 | 7.7% | 1-1 | 10.2% | 1-2 | 5.8% |
| 1-3 | 2.3% | 1-4 | 0.7% | 1-5 | 0.2% |
| 2-0 | 8.2% | 2-1 | 9.8% | 2-2 | 5.8% |
| 2-3 | 2.3% | 2-4 | 0.7% | 2-5 | 0.2% |
| 3-0 | 5.6% | 3-1 | 6.6% | 3-2 | 3.9% |
| 3-3 | 1.6% | 3-4 | 0.5% | 3-5 | 0.1% |
| 4-0 | 2.8% | 4-1 | 3.3% | 4-2 | 2.0% |
| 4-3 | 0.8% | 4-4 | 0.2% | 4-5 | 0.1% |
| 5-0 | 1.1% | 5-1 | 1.4% | 5-2 | 0.8% |
| 5-3 | 0.3% | 5-4 | 0.1% | 5-5 | 0.0% |
| other | 1.9% |
likeliest_score
| h | 100.0% | a | 100.0% | p | 10.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 | 95.5% | under_0.5 | 4.5% | over_1.5 | 83.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 16.5% | over_2.5 | 62.3% | under_2.5 | 37.7% |
| over_3.5 | 40.0% | under_3.5 | 60.0% | over_4.5 | 22.2% |
| under_4.5 | 77.8% | over_5.5 | 10.7% | under_5.5 | 89.3% |
odd_even
| odd | 48.9% | even | 51.1% |
|---|
team_home
| over_0.5 | 86.8% | under_0.5 | 13.2% | over_1.5 | 60.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 40.0% | over_2.5 | 33.0% | under_2.5 | 67.0% |
team_away
| over_0.5 | 69.6% | under_0.5 | 30.4% | over_1.5 | 33.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 66.6% | over_2.5 | 11.8% | under_2.5 | 88.2% |
most
| home | 56.2% | draw | 22.3% | away | 21.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 16.7% | away_+2.5 | 83.3% | home_-1.5 | 33.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 66.1% | home_-0.5 | 56.2% | away_+0.5 | 43.8% |
| home_+0.5 | 78.5% | away_-0.5 | 21.5% | home_+1.5 | 91.4% |
| away_-1.5 | 8.6% | home_+2.5 | 97.3% | away_-2.5 | 2.7% |
total_exact
| exact_0 | 4.5% | exact_1 | 12.0% | exact_2 | 21.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 22.2% | exact_4 | 17.9% | exact_5 | 11.5% |
| exact_6 | 6.2% | exact_7plus | 4.5% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 25.7% | draw | 47.2% | away | 27.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 62.3% | under_0.5 | 37.7% | over_1.5 | 25.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 74.5% | over_2.5 | 7.6% | under_2.5 | 92.4% |
btts
| yes | 14.9% | no | 85.1% |
|---|
total_exact
| exact_0 | 37.7% | exact_1 | 36.8% | exact_2 | 18.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 5.8% | exact_4plus | 1.8% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 34.4% | draw | 36.1% | away | 29.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 78.6% | under_0.5 | 21.3% | over_1.5 | 45.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 54.3% | over_2.5 | 20.2% | under_2.5 | 79.8% |
btts
| yes | 28.9% | no | 71.1% |
|---|
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H | 19.3% | H/D | 4.5% | H/A | 1.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D/H | 16.2% | D/D | 17.0% | D/A | 14.0% |
| A/H | 2.5% | A/D | 5.3% | A/A | 19.2% |
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 | 77.6% | under_7.5 | 22.4% | over_8.5 | 67.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_8.5 | 33.0% | over_9.5 | 55.3% | under_9.5 | 44.7% |
| over_10.5 | 43.5% | under_10.5 | 56.5% | over_11.5 | 32.7% |
| under_11.5 | 67.3% | over_12.5 | 23.5% | under_12.5 | 76.5% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 75.2% | under_3.5 | 24.8% | over_4.5 | 60.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 39.8% | over_5.5 | 44.9% | under_5.5 | 55.1% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 66.6% | under_3.5 | 33.5% | over_4.5 | 49.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 50.2% | over_5.5 | 34.4% | under_5.5 | 65.6% |
most
| home | 51.7% | draw | 10.6% | away | 37.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 22.3% | away_+3.5 | 77.8% | home_-1.5 | 41.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 59.0% | home_-0.5 | 51.7% | away_+0.5 | 48.3% |
| home_+0.5 | 62.3% | away_-0.5 | 37.7% | home_+1.5 | 72.1% |
| away_-1.5 | 27.9% | home_+3.5 | 86.9% | away_-3.5 | 13.1% |
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 | 75.9% | under_22.5 | 24.2% | over_24.5 | 64.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_24.5 | 35.5% | over_26.5 | 52.2% | under_26.5 | 47.9% |
| over_28.5 | 39.8% | under_28.5 | 60.2% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_10.5 | 78.5% | under_10.5 | 21.5% | over_12.5 | 62.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 37.2% | over_14.5 | 45.8% | under_14.5 | 54.2% |
team_away
| over_10.5 | 68.4% | under_10.5 | 31.6% | over_12.5 | 50.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 49.6% | over_14.5 | 33.3% | under_14.5 | 66.7% |
most
| home | 55.8% | draw | 6.2% | away | 38.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-4.5 | 31.3% | away_+4.5 | 68.8% | home_-2.5 | 43.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+2.5 | 56.8% | home_-0.5 | 55.8% | away_+0.5 | 44.2% |
| home_+0.5 | 62.0% | away_-0.5 | 38.0% | home_+2.5 | 73.3% |
| away_-2.5 | 26.7% | home_+4.5 | 82.6% | away_-4.5 | 17.4% |
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 | 81.3% | under_6.5 | 18.7% | over_7.5 | 71.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_7.5 | 28.9% | over_8.5 | 59.4% | under_8.5 | 40.6% |
| over_9.5 | 47.4% | under_9.5 | 52.6% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 70.7% | under_3.5 | 29.3% | over_4.5 | 54.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 46.0% | over_5.5 | 38.0% | under_5.5 | 62.0% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 64.3% | under_3.5 | 35.7% | over_4.5 | 46.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 53.3% | over_5.5 | 30.9% | under_5.5 | 69.1% |
most
| home | 49.1% | draw | 12.1% | away | 38.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 26.4% | away_+2.5 | 73.6% | home_-0.5 | 49.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 50.9% | home_+0.5 | 61.2% | away_-0.5 | 38.8% |
| home_+2.5 | 81.4% | away_-2.5 | 18.6% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 | 79.6% | under_2.5 | 20.4% | over_3.5 | 61.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_3.5 | 38.7% | over_4.5 | 42.0% | under_4.5 | 58.0% |
| over_5.5 | 25.5% | under_5.5 | 74.5% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_1.5 | 61.9% | under_1.5 | 38.1% | over_2.5 | 34.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 65.1% |
team_away
| over_1.5 | 63.4% | under_1.5 | 36.6% | over_2.5 | 36.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 63.5% |
most
| home | 38.9% | draw | 20.0% | away | 41.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-1.5 | 21.7% | away_+1.5 | 78.4% | home_-0.5 | 38.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 61.1% | home_+0.5 | 58.9% | away_-0.5 | 41.1% |
| home_+1.5 | 76.6% | away_-1.5 | 23.4% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 | 67.2% | under_20.5 | 32.8% | over_22.5 | 52.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_22.5 | 47.4% | over_24.5 | 38.2% | under_24.5 | 61.8% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_9.5 | 68.7% | under_9.5 | 31.3% | over_11.5 | 48.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 52.0% | over_13.5 | 29.0% | under_13.5 | 71.0% |
team_away
| over_9.5 | 68.6% | under_9.5 | 31.4% | over_11.5 | 47.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 52.2% | over_13.5 | 28.9% | under_13.5 | 71.1% |
most
| home | 46.4% | draw | 7.4% | away | 46.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 25.8% | away_+3.5 | 74.2% | home_-0.5 | 46.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 53.6% | home_+2.5 | 68.0% | away_-2.5 | 32.0% |
Red card range, not a point
any
| yes | 7.8% | no | 92.2% |
|---|
home
| yes | 3.4% | no | 96.6% |
|---|
away
| yes | 4.6% | no | 95.4% |
|---|
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.
Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.
We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.
Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).
More: Karlsruhe predictions · Wolfsburg predictions · 2. Bundesliga
Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.
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