Nurnberg vs Bielefeld: model prediction
2. BundesligaOver 1.5 goals
Nurnberg or draw
Over 8.5 corners
Full time2 of 2 calls right
Our most likely call was Nurnberg at 47.3%, and it was correct. We called Over 2.5 at 59.6% and it landed (5 goals). We called Yes at 61.3% and it landed.
Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.
Prediction summary
Top 3 convictions
Model read
▾
Nurnberg versus Bielefeld on 29 August 2026 tilts towards Nurnberg in our numbers (47%), with plenty left over for the other outcomes. Three angles decide this preview: 1) Notably, the model is warmer on Nurnberg than the market (44%). We flag disagreement rather than hide it. 2) Totals sit close to the fence: 60% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 61%. 3) The run in: Nurnberg arrive W4 D2 L0, Bielefeld W3 D1 L2. Head to head, the last 5 meetings gave 2 wins for Nurnberg, 3 draws and 0 for Bielefeld, averaging 2.2 goals a game. Verdict: no bet. Conservative ev -0.017 <= 0.
Value & higher-risk angles
Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.
Model vs market
47.3%+3.1%
24.3%-1.4%
28.3%-1.8%
conservative EV -0.017 <= 0
Goals markets
High probability
Good chance
Strong chance
Corners markets
Strong chance
Good chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Shots markets
Strong chance
Strong chance
Good chance
Toss-up
Totals line guide
Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Nurnberg 2 · 3 draws · Bielefeld 0 · 2.2 goals/game.
Season stats
Season 2026/27, real results only
BielefeldBookmaker odds
Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Goals
Corners
Cards
Shots on target
Shots
Fouls
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots on target
| Over 6.5 | 77.9% | Over 7.5 | 66.8% | Over 8.5 | 54.6% | Over 9.5 | 42.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Nurnberg | 59.4% | Most: Bielefeld | 29.0% | ||||
| Nurnberg Over 4.2 | 57.5% | Bielefeld Over 4.2 | 35.3% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 | 80.8% | Over 3.5 | 63.1% | Over 4.5 | 43.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Nurnberg | 39.5% | Most: Bielefeld | 40.8% | ||
| Nurnberg Over 1.8 | 63.4% | Bielefeld Over 1.8 | 64.3% |
Clean sheet & win to nil
| Nurnberg clean sheet | 26.4% |
|---|---|
| Bielefeld clean sheet | 17.1% |
| Nurnberg win to nil | 21.3% |
| Bielefeld win to nil | 12.0% |
Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home | 47.3% | draw | 24.3% | away | 28.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
double_chance
| 1X | 71.7% | 12 | 75.6% | X2 | 52.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
dnb
| home | 62.6% | away | 37.5% |
|---|
btts
| yes | 61.3% | no | 38.7% |
|---|
clean_sheet
| home | 26.6% | away | 17.2% |
|---|
win_to_nil
| home | 21.5% | away | 12.1% |
|---|
winning_margin
| home_by_1 | 21.3% | home_by_2 | 14.5% | home_by_3plus | 11.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_by_1 | 15.9% | away_by_2 | 8.2% | away_by_3plus | 4.3% |
correct_score
| 0-0 | 5.1% | 0-1 | 5.5% | 0-2 | 4.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | 1.8% | 0-4 | 0.6% | 0-5 | 0.2% |
| 1-0 | 7.5% | 1-1 | 11.2% | 1-2 | 7.0% |
| 1-3 | 3.1% | 1-4 | 1.0% | 1-5 | 0.3% |
| 2-0 | 7.1% | 2-1 | 9.4% | 2-2 | 6.2% |
| 2-3 | 2.7% | 2-4 | 0.9% | 2-5 | 0.2% |
| 3-0 | 4.2% | 3-1 | 5.5% | 3-2 | 3.7% |
| 3-3 | 1.6% | 3-4 | 0.5% | 3-5 | 0.1% |
| 4-0 | 1.8% | 4-1 | 2.4% | 4-2 | 1.6% |
| 4-3 | 0.7% | 4-4 | 0.2% | 4-5 | 0.1% |
| 5-0 | 0.7% | 5-1 | 0.9% | 5-2 | 0.6% |
| 5-3 | 0.3% | 5-4 | 0.1% | 5-5 | 0.0% |
| other | 1.2% |
likeliest_score
| h | 100.0% | a | 100.0% | p | 11.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 | 94.9% | under_0.5 | 5.1% | over_1.5 | 81.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 18.1% | over_2.5 | 59.6% | under_2.5 | 40.4% |
| over_3.5 | 37.2% | under_3.5 | 62.8% | over_4.5 | 20.0% |
| under_4.5 | 80.0% | over_5.5 | 9.3% | under_5.5 | 90.7% |
odd_even
| odd | 48.8% | even | 51.2% |
|---|
team_home
| over_0.5 | 82.8% | under_0.5 | 17.2% | over_1.5 | 52.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 47.4% | over_2.5 | 26.0% | under_2.5 | 74.0% |
team_away
| over_0.5 | 73.4% | under_0.5 | 26.6% | over_1.5 | 38.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 61.9% | over_2.5 | 14.8% | under_2.5 | 85.2% |
most
| home | 47.3% | draw | 24.3% | away | 28.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 11.5% | away_+2.5 | 88.5% | home_-1.5 | 26.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 74.0% | home_-0.5 | 47.3% | away_+0.5 | 52.7% |
| home_+0.5 | 71.7% | away_-0.5 | 28.3% | home_+1.5 | 87.6% |
| away_-1.5 | 12.4% | home_+2.5 | 95.7% | away_-2.5 | 4.3% |
total_exact
| exact_0 | 5.1% | exact_1 | 13.0% | exact_2 | 22.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 22.4% | exact_4 | 17.3% | exact_5 | 10.7% |
| exact_6 | 5.5% | exact_7plus | 3.8% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 44.1% | draw | 35.5% | away | 20.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 77.7% | under_0.5 | 22.3% | over_1.5 | 44.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 55.7% | over_2.5 | 19.2% | under_2.5 | 80.9% |
btts
| yes | 25.9% | no | 74.1% |
|---|
total_exact
| exact_0 | 22.3% | exact_1 | 33.5% | exact_2 | 25.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 12.6% | exact_4plus | 6.6% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 35.8% | draw | 34.8% | away | 29.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 80.5% | under_0.5 | 19.5% | over_1.5 | 48.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 51.4% | over_2.5 | 22.5% | under_2.5 | 77.5% |
btts
| yes | 31.0% | no | 69.0% |
|---|
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H | 34.9% | H/D | 6.5% | H/A | 2.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D/H | 12.7% | D/D | 12.4% | D/A | 10.4% |
| A/H | 2.1% | A/D | 4.0% | A/A | 14.3% |
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 | 77.9% | under_7.5 | 22.1% | over_8.5 | 67.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_8.5 | 32.7% | over_9.5 | 55.6% | under_9.5 | 44.4% |
| over_10.5 | 43.9% | under_10.5 | 56.1% | over_11.5 | 33.1% |
| under_11.5 | 66.9% | over_12.5 | 23.8% | under_12.5 | 76.2% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 74.5% | under_3.5 | 25.5% | over_4.5 | 59.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 40.6% | over_5.5 | 44.0% | under_5.5 | 56.0% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 67.8% | under_3.5 | 32.2% | over_4.5 | 51.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 48.8% | over_5.5 | 35.8% | under_5.5 | 64.2% |
most
| home | 50.1% | draw | 10.7% | away | 39.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 21.2% | away_+3.5 | 78.8% | home_-1.5 | 39.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 60.5% | home_-0.5 | 50.1% | away_+0.5 | 49.9% |
| home_+0.5 | 60.8% | away_-0.5 | 39.2% | home_+1.5 | 70.7% |
| away_-1.5 | 29.3% | home_+3.5 | 86.0% | away_-3.5 | 14.0% |
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 | 74.3% | under_22.5 | 25.7% | over_24.5 | 62.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_24.5 | 37.4% | over_26.5 | 50.1% | under_26.5 | 49.9% |
| over_28.5 | 37.8% | under_28.5 | 62.2% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_10.5 | 79.3% | under_10.5 | 20.7% | over_12.5 | 63.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 36.1% | over_14.5 | 47.0% | under_14.5 | 53.0% |
team_away
| over_10.5 | 64.6% | under_10.5 | 35.4% | over_12.5 | 46.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 54.0% | over_14.5 | 29.4% | under_14.5 | 70.6% |
most
| home | 59.6% | draw | 6.0% | away | 34.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-4.5 | 34.6% | away_+4.5 | 65.4% | home_-2.5 | 46.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+2.5 | 53.1% | home_-0.5 | 59.6% | away_+0.5 | 40.4% |
| home_+0.5 | 65.6% | away_-0.5 | 34.4% | home_+2.5 | 76.5% |
| away_-2.5 | 23.5% | home_+4.5 | 85.1% | away_-4.5 | 14.9% |
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 | 77.9% | under_6.5 | 22.1% | over_7.5 | 66.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_7.5 | 33.2% | over_8.5 | 54.6% | under_8.5 | 45.4% |
| over_9.5 | 42.4% | under_9.5 | 57.6% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 73.5% | under_3.5 | 26.5% | over_4.5 | 57.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 42.5% | over_5.5 | 41.5% | under_5.5 | 58.5% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 53.4% | under_3.5 | 46.6% | over_4.5 | 35.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 64.7% | over_5.5 | 21.1% | under_5.5 | 78.9% |
most
| home | 59.4% | draw | 11.7% | away | 29.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 34.8% | away_+2.5 | 65.2% | home_-0.5 | 59.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 40.7% | home_+0.5 | 71.0% | away_-0.5 | 29.0% |
| home_+2.5 | 88.2% | away_-2.5 | 11.8% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 | 80.8% | under_2.5 | 19.2% | over_3.5 | 63.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_3.5 | 36.9% | over_4.5 | 43.9% | under_4.5 | 56.2% |
| over_5.5 | 27.1% | under_5.5 | 72.9% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_1.5 | 63.4% | under_1.5 | 36.6% | over_2.5 | 36.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 63.5% |
team_away
| over_1.5 | 64.3% | under_1.5 | 35.7% | over_2.5 | 37.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 62.5% |
most
| home | 39.5% | draw | 19.8% | away | 40.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-1.5 | 22.3% | away_+1.5 | 77.7% | home_-0.5 | 39.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 60.6% | home_+0.5 | 59.2% | away_-0.5 | 40.8% |
| home_+1.5 | 76.7% | away_-1.5 | 23.3% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 | 76.5% | under_20.5 | 23.5% | over_22.5 | 63.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_22.5 | 36.4% | over_24.5 | 49.5% | under_24.5 | 50.5% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_9.5 | 72.1% | under_9.5 | 27.9% | over_11.5 | 52.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 47.9% | over_13.5 | 32.7% | under_13.5 | 67.3% |
team_away
| over_9.5 | 78.0% | under_9.5 | 22.0% | over_11.5 | 59.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 40.4% | over_13.5 | 40.1% | under_13.5 | 59.9% |
most
| home | 41.1% | draw | 7.1% | away | 51.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 22.3% | away_+3.5 | 77.7% | home_-0.5 | 41.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 58.9% | home_+2.5 | 62.3% | away_-2.5 | 37.7% |
Red card range, not a point
any
| yes | 8.9% | no | 91.1% |
|---|
home
| yes | 6.0% | no | 94.0% |
|---|
away
| yes | 3.1% | no | 96.9% |
|---|
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.
Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.
We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.
Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).
More: Nurnberg predictions · Bielefeld predictions · 2. Bundesliga
Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.
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