Heidenheim vs Dresden: model prediction
2. BundesligaOver 1.5 goals
Draw or Dresden
Over 8.5 corners
Full time2 of 2 calls right
Our most likely call was Dresden at 43.9%, and it was wrong. We called Over 2.5 at 54.1% and it landed (8 goals). We called Yes at 57.6% and it landed.
Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.
Prediction summary
Top 3 convictions
Model read
▾
Our engine prices Dresden at 44% for 29 August 2026. Favourites, yes; certainties, no. The numbers that frame it: • Notably, the model is warmer on Dresden than the market (35%). We flag disagreement rather than hide it. • Totals sit close to the fence: 54% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 58%. • Head to head, the last 5 meetings gave 2 wins for Heidenheim, 2 draws and 1 for Dresden, averaging 1.8 goals a game. • Heidenheim are newly promoted, a profile the model deliberately prices with caution. The run in: Heidenheim arrive W3 D1 L2, Dresden W3 D0 L3. Verdict: no bet. Outside trust zone (model prob 0.44, zone (0.45, 0.7)).
Value & higher-risk angles
Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.
Model vs market
30.2%-7.9%
25.9%-0.9%
43.9%+8.8%
outside trust zone (model prob 0.44, zone (0.45, 0.7))
Goals markets
High probability
Good chance
Good chance
Corners markets
Strong chance
Good chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Shots markets
Strong chance
Strong chance
Good chance
Toss-up
Totals line guide
Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Heidenheim 2 · 2 draws · Dresden 1 · 1.8 goals/game.
Season stats
Season 2026/27, real results only
HeidenheimDresdenBookmaker odds
Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Goals
Corners
Cards
Shots on target
Shots
Fouls
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots on target
| Over 6.5 | 77.6% | Over 7.5 | 66.4% | Over 8.5 | 54.2% | Over 9.5 | 42.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Heidenheim | 52.9% | Most: Dresden | 34.9% | ||||
| Heidenheim Over 4.2 | 52.9% | Dresden Over 4.2 | 39.9% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 | 76.5% | Over 3.5 | 57.1% | Over 4.5 | 37.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Heidenheim | 35.1% | Most: Dresden | 44.4% | ||
| Heidenheim Over 1.8 | 56.3% | Dresden Over 1.8 | 62.9% |
Clean sheet & win to nil
| Heidenheim clean sheet | 20.7% |
|---|---|
| Dresden clean sheet | 27.9% |
| Heidenheim win to nil | 14.3% |
| Dresden win to nil | 21.5% |
Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home | 30.3% | draw | 25.9% | away | 43.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
double_chance
| 1X | 56.2% | 12 | 74.1% | X2 | 69.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
dnb
| home | 40.8% | away | 59.2% |
|---|
btts
| yes | 57.6% | no | 42.4% |
|---|
clean_sheet
| home | 20.7% | away | 28.1% |
|---|
win_to_nil
| home | 14.3% | away | 21.7% |
|---|
winning_margin
| home_by_1 | 17.1% | home_by_2 | 8.7% | home_by_3plus | 4.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_by_1 | 21.3% | away_by_2 | 13.4% | away_by_3plus | 9.1% |
correct_score
| 0-0 | 6.4% | 0-1 | 8.6% | 0-2 | 7.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | 3.8% | 0-4 | 1.5% | 0-5 | 0.5% |
| 1-0 | 6.8% | 1-1 | 12.2% | 1-2 | 9.2% |
| 1-3 | 4.8% | 1-4 | 1.9% | 1-5 | 0.6% |
| 2-0 | 4.7% | 2-1 | 7.4% | 2-2 | 5.8% |
| 2-3 | 3.1% | 2-4 | 1.2% | 2-5 | 0.4% |
| 3-0 | 2.0% | 3-1 | 3.1% | 3-2 | 2.5% |
| 3-3 | 1.3% | 3-4 | 0.5% | 3-5 | 0.2% |
| 4-0 | 0.6% | 4-1 | 1.0% | 4-2 | 0.8% |
| 4-3 | 0.4% | 4-4 | 0.2% | 4-5 | 0.1% |
| 5-0 | 0.2% | 5-1 | 0.3% | 5-2 | 0.2% |
| 5-3 | 0.1% | 5-4 | 0.0% | 5-5 | 0.0% |
| other | 0.8% |
likeliest_score
| h | 100.0% | a | 100.0% | p | 12.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 | 93.6% | under_0.5 | 6.4% | over_1.5 | 78.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 21.8% | over_2.5 | 54.1% | under_2.5 | 45.9% |
| over_3.5 | 31.8% | under_3.5 | 68.2% | over_4.5 | 15.9% |
| under_4.5 | 84.1% | over_5.5 | 6.9% | under_5.5 | 93.1% |
odd_even
| odd | 48.7% | even | 51.3% |
|---|
team_home
| over_0.5 | 71.9% | under_0.5 | 28.1% | over_1.5 | 36.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 63.7% | over_2.5 | 13.6% | under_2.5 | 86.4% |
team_away
| over_0.5 | 79.3% | under_0.5 | 20.7% | over_1.5 | 46.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 53.4% | over_2.5 | 21.0% | under_2.5 | 79.0% |
most
| home | 30.3% | draw | 25.9% | away | 43.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 4.4% | away_+2.5 | 95.6% | home_-1.5 | 13.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 86.9% | home_-0.5 | 30.3% | away_+0.5 | 69.8% |
| home_+0.5 | 56.1% | away_-0.5 | 43.9% | home_+1.5 | 77.5% |
| away_-1.5 | 22.5% | home_+2.5 | 90.9% | away_-2.5 | 9.1% |
total_exact
| exact_0 | 6.4% | exact_1 | 15.4% | exact_2 | 24.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 22.3% | exact_4 | 15.9% | exact_5 | 9.0% |
| exact_6 | 4.3% | exact_7plus | 2.6% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 27.4% | draw | 29.5% | away | 43.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 87.7% | under_0.5 | 12.3% | over_1.5 | 62.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 38.0% | over_2.5 | 35.0% | under_2.5 | 65.0% |
btts
| yes | 41.4% | no | 58.6% |
|---|
total_exact
| exact_0 | 12.3% | exact_1 | 25.7% | exact_2 | 27.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 18.9% | exact_4plus | 16.1% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 43.6% | draw | 34.4% | away | 22.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 79.7% | under_0.5 | 20.3% | over_1.5 | 47.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 52.6% | over_2.5 | 21.6% | under_2.5 | 78.4% |
btts
| yes | 28.6% | no | 71.4% |
|---|
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H | 23.0% | H/D | 3.3% | H/A | 1.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D/H | 12.9% | D/D | 10.1% | D/A | 6.5% |
| A/H | 4.8% | A/D | 8.2% | A/A | 30.2% |
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 | 78.4% | under_7.5 | 21.6% | over_8.5 | 68.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_8.5 | 32.0% | over_9.5 | 56.4% | under_9.5 | 43.6% |
| over_10.5 | 44.7% | under_10.5 | 55.3% | over_11.5 | 33.8% |
| under_11.5 | 66.2% | over_12.5 | 24.5% | under_12.5 | 75.5% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 76.1% | under_3.5 | 24.0% | over_4.5 | 61.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 38.7% | over_5.5 | 46.1% | under_5.5 | 53.9% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 66.9% | under_3.5 | 33.2% | over_4.5 | 50.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 49.9% | over_5.5 | 34.7% | under_5.5 | 65.3% |
most
| home | 52.3% | draw | 10.5% | away | 37.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 22.8% | away_+3.5 | 77.2% | home_-1.5 | 41.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 58.4% | home_-0.5 | 52.3% | away_+0.5 | 47.7% |
| home_+0.5 | 62.8% | away_-0.5 | 37.2% | home_+1.5 | 72.5% |
| away_-1.5 | 27.5% | home_+3.5 | 87.1% | away_-3.5 | 12.9% |
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 | 75.6% | under_22.5 | 24.4% | over_24.5 | 64.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_24.5 | 35.8% | over_26.5 | 51.7% | under_26.5 | 48.3% |
| over_28.5 | 39.4% | under_28.5 | 60.6% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_10.5 | 79.7% | under_10.5 | 20.3% | over_12.5 | 64.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 35.5% | over_14.5 | 47.6% | under_14.5 | 52.4% |
team_away
| over_10.5 | 66.3% | under_10.5 | 33.7% | over_12.5 | 47.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 52.1% | over_14.5 | 31.0% | under_14.5 | 69.0% |
most
| home | 58.7% | draw | 6.1% | away | 35.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-4.5 | 33.9% | away_+4.5 | 66.1% | home_-2.5 | 46.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+2.5 | 53.9% | home_-0.5 | 58.7% | away_+0.5 | 41.3% |
| home_+0.5 | 64.8% | away_-0.5 | 35.2% | home_+2.5 | 75.7% |
| away_-2.5 | 24.3% | home_+4.5 | 84.5% | away_-4.5 | 15.5% |
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 | 77.6% | under_6.5 | 22.4% | over_7.5 | 66.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_7.5 | 33.6% | over_8.5 | 54.2% | under_8.5 | 45.8% |
| over_9.5 | 42.1% | under_9.5 | 58.0% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 69.7% | under_3.5 | 30.3% | over_4.5 | 52.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 47.1% | over_5.5 | 36.9% | under_5.5 | 63.1% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 58.0% | under_3.5 | 42.0% | over_4.5 | 39.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 60.1% | over_5.5 | 25.0% | under_5.5 | 75.1% |
most
| home | 52.8% | draw | 12.3% | away | 34.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 29.0% | away_+2.5 | 71.1% | home_-0.5 | 52.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 47.2% | home_+0.5 | 65.1% | away_-0.5 | 34.9% |
| home_+2.5 | 84.5% | away_-2.5 | 15.5% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 | 76.5% | under_2.5 | 23.5% | over_3.5 | 57.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_3.5 | 42.9% | over_4.5 | 37.6% | under_4.5 | 62.4% |
| over_5.5 | 21.9% | under_5.5 | 78.1% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_1.5 | 56.3% | under_1.5 | 43.7% | over_2.5 | 29.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 70.7% |
team_away
| over_1.5 | 62.9% | under_1.5 | 37.1% | over_2.5 | 36.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 64.0% |
most
| home | 35.1% | draw | 20.5% | away | 44.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-1.5 | 18.4% | away_+1.5 | 81.6% | home_-0.5 | 35.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 64.9% | home_+0.5 | 55.6% | away_-0.5 | 44.4% |
| home_+1.5 | 74.4% | away_-1.5 | 25.6% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 | 67.2% | under_20.5 | 32.8% | over_22.5 | 52.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_22.5 | 47.3% | over_24.5 | 38.3% | under_24.5 | 61.7% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_9.5 | 69.4% | under_9.5 | 30.6% | over_11.5 | 48.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 51.2% | over_13.5 | 29.7% | under_13.5 | 70.3% |
team_away
| over_9.5 | 67.9% | under_9.5 | 32.1% | over_11.5 | 47.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 52.9% | over_13.5 | 28.2% | under_13.5 | 71.8% |
most
| home | 47.5% | draw | 7.4% | away | 45.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 26.7% | away_+3.5 | 73.3% | home_-0.5 | 47.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 52.5% | home_+2.5 | 69.1% | away_-2.5 | 31.0% |
Red card range, not a point
any
| yes | 23.8% | no | 76.2% |
|---|
home
| yes | 8.4% | no | 91.6% |
|---|
away
| yes | 16.9% | no | 83.1% |
|---|
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.
Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.
We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.
Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).
More: Heidenheim predictions · Dresden predictions · 2. Bundesliga
Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.
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