Cottbus vs Greuther Furth: model prediction
2. BundesligaOver 1.5 goals
Over 8.5 corners
Cottbus or draw
Full time2 of 2 calls right
Our most likely call was Cottbus at 37.5%, and it was wrong. We called Over 2.5 at 58.6% and it landed (7 goals). We called Yes at 61.6% and it landed.
Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.
Prediction summary
Top 3 convictions
Model read
▾
Cottbus versus Greuther Furth in the 2. Bundesliga on 29 August 2026 is finely balanced. Cottbus edge it at 38%, but the gap to the field is slim. Bookmakers see it the same way, 38% on Cottbus, and agreement is historically when our numbers are most reliable. Totals sit close to the fence: 59% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 62%. As a promoted side, Cottbus carry exactly the structural uncertainty our priors were built for. Recent form reads W1 D0 L1 for Cottbus against W1 D2 L3 for Greuther Furth. The engine passes on this one (value_gap +0.008 <= 0.03).
Value & higher-risk angles
Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.
Model vs market
37.5%-0.3%
25.2%+0.8%
37.3%-0.5%
value_gap +0.008 <= 0.03
Goals markets
High probability
Good chance
Strong chance
Corners markets
Strong chance
Good chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Shots markets
Strong chance
Strong chance
Good chance
Toss-up
Totals line guide
Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.
Form & head-to-head
Season stats
Season 2026/27, real results only
Greuther FurthBookmaker odds
Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Goals
Corners
Cards
Shots on target
Shots
Fouls
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots on target
| Over 6.5 | 80.7% | Over 7.5 | 70.3% | Over 8.5 | 58.6% | Over 9.5 | 46.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Cottbus | 51.5% | Most: Greuther Furth | 36.5% | ||||
| Cottbus Over 4.2 | 55.1% | Greuther Furth Over 4.2 | 44.2% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 | 79.8% | Over 3.5 | 61.6% | Over 4.5 | 42.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Cottbus | 39.7% | Most: Greuther Furth | 40.3% | ||
| Cottbus Over 1.8 | 62.6% | Greuther Furth Over 1.8 | 63.0% |
Clean sheet & win to nil
| Cottbus clean sheet | 21.8% |
|---|---|
| Greuther Furth clean sheet | 21.7% |
| Cottbus win to nil | 16.5% |
| Greuther Furth win to nil | 16.4% |
Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home | 37.5% | draw | 25.2% | away | 37.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
double_chance
| 1X | 62.7% | 12 | 74.8% | X2 | 62.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
dnb
| home | 50.2% | away | 49.8% |
|---|
btts
| yes | 61.6% | no | 38.4% |
|---|
clean_sheet
| home | 21.9% | away | 21.8% |
|---|
win_to_nil
| home | 16.6% | away | 16.5% |
|---|
winning_margin
| home_by_1 | 19.1% | home_by_2 | 11.3% | home_by_3plus | 7.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_by_1 | 19.0% | away_by_2 | 11.2% | away_by_3plus | 7.1% |
correct_score
| 0-0 | 5.3% | 0-1 | 6.7% | 0-2 | 5.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | 2.8% | 0-4 | 1.1% | 0-5 | 0.3% |
| 1-0 | 6.7% | 1-1 | 11.6% | 1-2 | 8.4% |
| 1-3 | 4.2% | 1-4 | 1.6% | 1-5 | 0.5% |
| 2-0 | 5.5% | 2-1 | 8.4% | 2-2 | 6.4% |
| 2-3 | 3.2% | 2-4 | 1.2% | 2-5 | 0.4% |
| 3-0 | 2.8% | 3-1 | 4.3% | 3-2 | 3.3% |
| 3-3 | 1.6% | 3-4 | 0.6% | 3-5 | 0.2% |
| 4-0 | 1.1% | 4-1 | 1.6% | 4-2 | 1.2% |
| 4-3 | 0.6% | 4-4 | 0.2% | 4-5 | 0.1% |
| 5-0 | 0.3% | 5-1 | 0.5% | 5-2 | 0.4% |
| 5-3 | 0.2% | 5-4 | 0.1% | 5-5 | 0.0% |
| other | 1.0% |
likeliest_score
| h | 100.0% | a | 100.0% | p | 11.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 | 94.7% | under_0.5 | 5.3% | over_1.5 | 81.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 18.7% | over_2.5 | 58.6% | under_2.5 | 41.4% |
| over_3.5 | 36.3% | under_3.5 | 63.7% | over_4.5 | 19.2% |
| under_4.5 | 80.8% | over_5.5 | 8.8% | under_5.5 | 91.2% |
odd_even
| odd | 48.8% | even | 51.2% |
|---|
team_home
| over_0.5 | 78.2% | under_0.5 | 21.8% | over_1.5 | 45.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 55.0% | over_2.5 | 19.8% | under_2.5 | 80.2% |
team_away
| over_0.5 | 78.1% | under_0.5 | 21.9% | over_1.5 | 44.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 55.2% | over_2.5 | 19.6% | under_2.5 | 80.4% |
most
| home | 37.5% | draw | 25.2% | away | 37.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 7.2% | away_+2.5 | 92.8% | home_-1.5 | 18.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 81.5% | home_-0.5 | 37.5% | away_+0.5 | 62.5% |
| home_+0.5 | 62.7% | away_-0.5 | 37.3% | home_+1.5 | 81.7% |
| away_-1.5 | 18.3% | home_+2.5 | 92.9% | away_-2.5 | 7.1% |
total_exact
| exact_0 | 5.3% | exact_1 | 13.4% | exact_2 | 22.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 22.4% | exact_4 | 17.0% | exact_5 | 10.4% |
| exact_6 | 5.3% | exact_7plus | 3.6% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 31.9% | draw | 35.2% | away | 32.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 79.9% | under_0.5 | 20.1% | over_1.5 | 47.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 52.3% | over_2.5 | 21.8% | under_2.5 | 78.2% |
btts
| yes | 30.5% | no | 69.5% |
|---|
total_exact
| exact_0 | 20.1% | exact_1 | 32.2% | exact_2 | 25.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 13.9% | exact_4plus | 8.0% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 50.9% | draw | 31.2% | away | 17.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 82.6% | under_0.5 | 17.4% | over_1.5 | 52.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 47.8% | over_2.5 | 25.6% | under_2.5 | 74.4% |
btts
| yes | 30.1% | no | 69.9% |
|---|
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H | 27.7% | H/D | 3.3% | H/A | 1.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D/H | 17.9% | D/D | 11.0% | D/A | 6.3% |
| A/H | 5.7% | A/D | 7.6% | A/A | 19.6% |
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 | 77.8% | under_7.5 | 22.3% | over_8.5 | 67.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_8.5 | 32.9% | over_9.5 | 55.5% | under_9.5 | 44.5% |
| over_10.5 | 43.8% | under_10.5 | 56.3% | over_11.5 | 32.9% |
| under_11.5 | 67.1% | over_12.5 | 23.7% | under_12.5 | 76.3% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 75.5% | under_3.5 | 24.5% | over_4.5 | 60.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 39.4% | over_5.5 | 45.3% | under_5.5 | 54.7% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 66.4% | under_3.5 | 33.6% | over_4.5 | 49.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 50.4% | over_5.5 | 34.2% | under_5.5 | 65.8% |
most
| home | 52.1% | draw | 10.6% | away | 37.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 22.6% | away_+3.5 | 77.4% | home_-1.5 | 41.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 58.6% | home_-0.5 | 52.1% | away_+0.5 | 47.9% |
| home_+0.5 | 62.7% | away_-0.5 | 37.3% | home_+1.5 | 72.4% |
| away_-1.5 | 27.6% | home_+3.5 | 87.1% | away_-3.5 | 12.9% |
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 | 75.0% | under_22.5 | 25.0% | over_24.5 | 63.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_24.5 | 36.5% | over_26.5 | 51.1% | under_26.5 | 48.9% |
| over_28.5 | 38.8% | under_28.5 | 61.2% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_10.5 | 78.6% | under_10.5 | 21.4% | over_12.5 | 63.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 37.0% | over_14.5 | 46.0% | under_14.5 | 54.0% |
team_away
| over_10.5 | 66.9% | under_10.5 | 33.1% | over_12.5 | 48.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 51.4% | over_14.5 | 31.7% | under_14.5 | 68.3% |
most
| home | 57.1% | draw | 6.1% | away | 36.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-4.5 | 32.4% | away_+4.5 | 67.6% | home_-2.5 | 44.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+2.5 | 55.5% | home_-0.5 | 57.1% | away_+0.5 | 42.9% |
| home_+0.5 | 63.2% | away_-0.5 | 36.8% | home_+2.5 | 74.4% |
| away_-2.5 | 25.6% | home_+4.5 | 83.5% | away_-4.5 | 16.5% |
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 | 80.7% | under_6.5 | 19.3% | over_7.5 | 70.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_7.5 | 29.7% | over_8.5 | 58.6% | under_8.5 | 41.4% |
| over_9.5 | 46.6% | under_9.5 | 53.4% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 71.5% | under_3.5 | 28.5% | over_4.5 | 55.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 44.9% | over_5.5 | 39.1% | under_5.5 | 60.9% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 62.1% | under_3.5 | 37.9% | over_4.5 | 44.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 55.8% | over_5.5 | 28.7% | under_5.5 | 71.3% |
most
| home | 51.5% | draw | 12.0% | away | 36.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 28.3% | away_+2.5 | 71.7% | home_-0.5 | 51.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 48.5% | home_+0.5 | 63.5% | away_-0.5 | 36.5% |
| home_+2.5 | 83.1% | away_-2.5 | 16.9% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 | 79.8% | under_2.5 | 20.2% | over_3.5 | 61.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_3.5 | 38.4% | over_4.5 | 42.2% | under_4.5 | 57.8% |
| over_5.5 | 25.7% | under_5.5 | 74.3% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_1.5 | 62.6% | under_1.5 | 37.4% | over_2.5 | 35.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 64.3% |
team_away
| over_1.5 | 63.0% | under_1.5 | 37.0% | over_2.5 | 36.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 63.9% |
most
| home | 39.7% | draw | 20.0% | away | 40.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-1.5 | 22.3% | away_+1.5 | 77.7% | home_-0.5 | 39.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 60.3% | home_+0.5 | 59.7% | away_-0.5 | 40.3% |
| home_+1.5 | 77.2% | away_-1.5 | 22.8% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 | 71.2% | under_20.5 | 28.8% | over_22.5 | 57.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_22.5 | 42.7% | over_24.5 | 42.9% | under_24.5 | 57.1% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_9.5 | 73.7% | under_9.5 | 26.3% | over_11.5 | 54.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 46.0% | over_13.5 | 34.6% | under_13.5 | 65.4% |
team_away
| over_9.5 | 69.1% | under_9.5 | 30.9% | over_11.5 | 48.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 51.6% | over_13.5 | 29.4% | under_13.5 | 70.6% |
most
| home | 50.3% | draw | 7.3% | away | 42.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 29.4% | away_+3.5 | 70.6% | home_-0.5 | 50.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 49.7% | home_+2.5 | 71.2% | away_-2.5 | 28.8% |
Red card range, not a point
any
| yes | 9.5% | no | 90.5% |
|---|
home
| yes | 5.2% | no | 94.8% |
|---|
away
| yes | 4.6% | no | 95.5% |
|---|
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.
Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.
We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.
Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).
More: Cottbus predictions · Greuther Furth predictions · 2. Bundesliga
Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.
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