Frosinone vs Juventus: model prediction
Serie A
Draw or Juventus
Over 1.5 goals
Not both teams to score
Full time2 of 2 calls right
Our most likely call was Juventus at 63.5%, and it was correct. We called Under 2.5 at 52.5% and it landed (1 goals). We called No at 53.9% and it landed.
Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.
Win probability · fair 1.58
Top signals
Model read
The numbers leave little room for romance here: Juventus at 63% against Frosinone, Serie A, 23 August 2026. The numbers that frame it: • The market is more convinced than we are, pricing Juventus at 67%. Caution noted. • No strong lean on goals (48% Over 2.5). The interest, if any, lives elsewhere. • Fatigue may matter, with Juventus 728 days shorter on recovery than Frosinone. As a promoted side, Frosinone carry exactly the structural uncertainty our priors were built for. • The recent series reads 0 wins for Frosinone, 0 draws and 5 for Juventus over 5 games, 3.0 goals on average. Form guide over the last six: Frosinone W2 D2 L2, Juventus W2 D3 L1. The engine passes on this one (value_gap +0.024 <= 0.03).
Value & higher-risk angles
Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.
Model vs market
13.5%+2.5%
23.0%+0.8%
63.5%-3.3%
value_gap +0.024 <= 0.03
Goals
Corners
Shots
Totals line guide
Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Frosinone 0 · 0 draws · Juventus 5 · 3.0 goals/game.
Players to watch
Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup
Bookmaker odds
Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Goals
Corners
Cards
Shots on target
Shots
Fouls
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots on target
| Over 6.5 | 66.0% | Over 7.5 | 54.5% | Over 8.5 | 43.2% | Over 9.5 | 33.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Frosinone | 42.1% | Most: Juventus | 45.9% | ||||
| Frosinone Over 4.2 | 37.3% | Juventus Over 4.2 | 40.1% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 | 68.6% | Over 3.5 | 47.5% | Over 4.5 | 28.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Frosinone | 37.4% | Most: Juventus | 40.8% | ||
| Frosinone Over 1.8 | 51.5% | Juventus Over 1.8 | 54.0% |
Juventus: players to watch (recent-form projection)
O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.
| Player | Shots/90 | SoT/90 | Goals/90 | 1+ SoT | 2+ shots | To score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremie Boga | 3.24 | 1.62 | 0.54 | 55.0% | 47.5% | 23.4% |
| Dusan Vlahovic | 4.07 | 1.55 | 0.57 | 62.5% | 72.8% | 30.3% |
| Randal Kolo Muani | 1.99 | 1.07 | 0.61 | 58.2% | 48.3% | 39.2% |
| Kenan Yildiz | 2.7 | 1.06 | 0.29 | 58.3% | 65.2% | 21.3% |
| Nicolás González | 2.35 | 1.05 | 0.15 | 52.8% | 50.1% | 10.2% |
Clean sheet & win to nil
| Frosinone clean sheet | 16.9% |
|---|---|
| Juventus clean sheet | 44.8% |
| Frosinone win to nil | 8.7% |
| Juventus win to nil | 36.6% |
Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home | 15.8% | draw | 23.9% | away | 60.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
double_chance
| 1X | 39.7% | 12 | 76.1% | X2 | 84.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
dnb
| home | 20.7% | away | 79.3% |
|---|
btts
| yes | 46.1% | no | 53.9% |
|---|
clean_sheet
| home | 16.9% | away | 45.2% |
|---|
win_to_nil
| home | 8.7% | away | 37.1% |
|---|
winning_margin
| home_by_1 | 10.9% | home_by_2 | 3.8% | home_by_3plus | 1.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_by_1 | 25.1% | away_by_2 | 18.9% | away_by_3plus | 16.3% |
correct_score
| 0-0 | 8.2% | 0-1 | 13.0% | 0-2 | 12.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | 7.2% | 0-4 | 3.2% | 0-5 | 1.1% |
| 1-0 | 5.5% | 1-1 | 11.3% | 1-2 | 9.6% |
| 1-3 | 5.7% | 1-4 | 2.5% | 1-5 | 0.9% |
| 2-0 | 2.4% | 2-1 | 4.3% | 2-2 | 3.8% |
| 2-3 | 2.3% | 2-4 | 1.0% | 2-5 | 0.4% |
| 3-0 | 0.6% | 3-1 | 1.1% | 3-2 | 1.0% |
| 3-3 | 0.6% | 3-4 | 0.3% | 3-5 | 0.1% |
| 4-0 | 0.1% | 4-1 | 0.2% | 4-2 | 0.2% |
| 4-3 | 0.1% | 4-4 | 0.1% | 4-5 | 0.0% |
| 5-0 | 0.0% | 5-1 | 0.0% | 5-2 | 0.0% |
| 5-3 | 0.0% | 5-4 | 0.0% | 5-5 | 0.0% |
| other | 1.0% |
likeliest_score
| h | 0.0% | a | 100.0% | p | 13.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 | 91.8% | under_0.5 | 8.2% | over_1.5 | 73.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 26.7% | over_2.5 | 47.5% | under_2.5 | 52.5% |
| over_3.5 | 25.9% | under_3.5 | 74.2% | over_4.5 | 11.9% |
| under_4.5 | 88.1% | over_5.5 | 4.7% | under_5.5 | 95.3% |
odd_even
| odd | 48.6% | even | 51.4% |
|---|
team_home
| over_0.5 | 54.8% | under_0.5 | 45.2% | over_1.5 | 18.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 81.1% | over_2.5 | 4.7% | under_2.5 | 95.3% |
team_away
| over_0.5 | 83.1% | under_0.5 | 16.9% | over_1.5 | 53.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 46.9% | over_2.5 | 26.4% | under_2.5 | 73.6% |
most
| home | 15.8% | draw | 23.9% | away | 60.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 1.1% | away_+2.5 | 98.9% | home_-1.5 | 4.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 95.1% | home_-0.5 | 15.8% | away_+0.5 | 84.2% |
| home_+0.5 | 39.7% | away_-0.5 | 60.3% | home_+1.5 | 64.9% |
| away_-1.5 | 35.2% | home_+2.5 | 83.7% | away_-2.5 | 16.3% |
total_exact
| exact_0 | 8.2% | exact_1 | 18.5% | exact_2 | 25.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 21.7% | exact_4 | 13.9% | exact_5 | 7.2% |
| exact_6 | 3.1% | exact_7plus | 1.6% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 20.1% | draw | 44.1% | away | 35.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 66.0% | under_0.5 | 34.0% | over_1.5 | 29.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 70.7% | over_2.5 | 9.6% | under_2.5 | 90.5% |
btts
| yes | 16.6% | no | 83.5% |
|---|
total_exact
| exact_0 | 34.0% | exact_1 | 36.7% | exact_2 | 19.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 7.1% | exact_4plus | 2.4% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 21.9% | draw | 36.5% | away | 41.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 76.8% | under_0.5 | 23.2% | over_1.5 | 42.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 57.2% | over_2.5 | 18.1% | under_2.5 | 81.9% |
btts
| yes | 25.5% | no | 74.5% |
|---|
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H | 12.8% | H/D | 4.7% | H/A | 2.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D/H | 9.7% | D/D | 16.1% | D/A | 18.3% |
| A/H | 1.4% | A/D | 4.7% | A/A | 29.8% |
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 | 62.7% | under_7.5 | 37.3% | over_8.5 | 51.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_8.5 | 48.5% | over_9.5 | 40.8% | under_9.5 | 59.2% |
| over_10.5 | 31.2% | under_10.5 | 68.9% | over_11.5 | 23.0% |
| under_11.5 | 77.0% | over_12.5 | 16.4% | under_12.5 | 83.6% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 65.1% | under_3.5 | 34.9% | over_4.5 | 50.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 49.5% | over_5.5 | 37.2% | under_5.5 | 62.8% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 53.1% | under_3.5 | 46.9% | over_4.5 | 37.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 62.3% | over_5.5 | 25.2% | under_5.5 | 74.8% |
most
| home | 53.3% | draw | 10.3% | away | 36.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 24.4% | away_+3.5 | 75.6% | home_-1.5 | 42.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 57.2% | home_-0.5 | 53.3% | away_+0.5 | 46.7% |
| home_+0.5 | 63.7% | away_-0.5 | 36.3% | home_+1.5 | 73.1% |
| away_-1.5 | 26.9% | home_+3.5 | 87.2% | away_-3.5 | 12.8% |
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 | 58.8% | under_22.5 | 41.2% | over_24.5 | 46.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_24.5 | 53.2% | over_26.5 | 35.4% | under_26.5 | 64.6% |
| over_28.5 | 25.4% | under_28.5 | 74.6% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_10.5 | 66.0% | under_10.5 | 34.0% | over_12.5 | 49.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 50.4% | over_14.5 | 34.3% | under_14.5 | 65.7% |
team_away
| over_10.5 | 55.2% | under_10.5 | 44.8% | over_12.5 | 38.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 61.9% | over_14.5 | 24.1% | under_14.5 | 75.9% |
most
| home | 55.0% | draw | 6.0% | away | 39.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-4.5 | 31.3% | away_+4.5 | 68.7% | home_-2.5 | 42.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+2.5 | 57.2% | home_-0.5 | 55.0% | away_+0.5 | 45.0% |
| home_+0.5 | 61.0% | away_-0.5 | 39.0% | home_+2.5 | 72.1% |
| away_-2.5 | 27.9% | home_+4.5 | 81.4% | away_-4.5 | 18.6% |
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 | 66.0% | under_6.5 | 34.0% | over_7.5 | 54.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_7.5 | 45.5% | over_8.5 | 43.2% | under_8.5 | 56.8% |
| over_9.5 | 33.1% | under_9.5 | 67.0% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 53.1% | under_3.5 | 46.9% | over_4.5 | 37.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 62.7% | over_5.5 | 24.7% | under_5.5 | 75.3% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 55.8% | under_3.5 | 44.3% | over_4.5 | 40.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 59.9% | over_5.5 | 27.1% | under_5.5 | 72.9% |
most
| home | 42.1% | draw | 11.9% | away | 46.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 21.5% | away_+2.5 | 78.5% | home_-0.5 | 42.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 57.9% | home_+0.5 | 54.1% | away_-0.5 | 46.0% |
| home_+2.5 | 75.5% | away_-2.5 | 24.5% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 | 68.6% | under_2.5 | 31.4% | over_3.5 | 47.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_3.5 | 52.5% | over_4.5 | 28.8% | under_4.5 | 71.2% |
| over_5.5 | 15.5% | under_5.5 | 84.5% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.1% |
|---|
team_home
| over_1.5 | 51.5% | under_1.5 | 48.5% | over_2.5 | 25.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 74.6% |
team_away
| over_1.5 | 54.0% | under_1.5 | 46.0% | over_2.5 | 27.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 72.3% |
most
| home | 37.4% | draw | 21.8% | away | 40.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-1.5 | 19.4% | away_+1.5 | 80.6% | home_-0.5 | 37.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 62.6% | home_+0.5 | 59.2% | away_-0.5 | 40.8% |
| home_+1.5 | 78.0% | away_-1.5 | 22.0% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 | 67.6% | under_20.5 | 32.4% | over_22.5 | 54.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_22.5 | 46.0% | over_24.5 | 40.4% | under_24.5 | 59.6% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_9.5 | 60.7% | under_9.5 | 39.3% | over_11.5 | 40.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 59.6% | over_13.5 | 23.5% | under_13.5 | 76.5% |
team_away
| over_9.5 | 75.0% | under_9.5 | 25.0% | over_11.5 | 56.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 43.1% | over_13.5 | 38.6% | under_13.5 | 61.4% |
most
| home | 35.1% | draw | 6.7% | away | 58.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 18.2% | away_+3.5 | 81.8% | home_-0.5 | 35.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 64.9% | home_+2.5 | 55.8% | away_-2.5 | 44.2% |
Red card range, not a point
any
| yes | 11.1% | no | 88.9% |
|---|
home
| yes | 6.0% | no | 94.0% |
|---|
away
| yes | 5.4% | no | 94.6% |
|---|
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.
Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.
We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.
Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0096 (55405 matches).
More: Frosinone predictions · Juventus predictions · Serie A
Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.
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