Frosinone vs Juventus prediction & probabilities (2026-08-23)

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Frosinone vs Juventus: model prediction

Serie A
Frosinone

WDLWL

Sun, 23 Aug 202617:30UK
Juventus

DDWLD

Model’s top convictions

86%

Draw or Juventus

73%

Over 1.5 goals

54%

Not both teams to score

No bet

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
JuventusWin probability
63.5%
Top 3 convictions

Draw or Juventus86.5%High probabilityPays @ 1.16
Over 1.5 goals73.3%Strong chancePays @ 1.36
Not both teams to score53.9%Good chancePays @ 1.86

Model read

▾

The numbers leave little room for romance here: Juventus at 63% against Frosinone, Serie A, 23 August 2026. Three things stand out in the data: 1) Totals sit close to the fence: 48% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 46%. 2) Fatigue may matter, with Juventus 728 days shorter on recovery than Frosinone. As a promoted side, Frosinone carry exactly the structural uncertainty our priors were built for. 3) The recent series reads 0 wins for Frosinone, 0 draws and 5 for Juventus over 5 games, 3.0 goals on average. Form guide over the last six: Frosinone W2 D2 L2, Juventus W2 D3 L1. The engine passes here; discipline beats action.

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 2.5 goals47.5%@ 2.11
Over 9.5 corners40.6%@ 2.46
Frosinone or draw36.5%@ 2.74
Medium risk

Under 2.5 goals52.5%@ 1.90
Over 8.5 corners50.4%@ 1.98
Random finds

0-1 correct score13.0%@ 7.67
0-2 correct score12.1%@ 8.28
1-1 correct score11.3%@ 8.85

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Frosinone

13.5%

Draw

23.0%

Juventus

63.5%

Model

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.573.3%

Strong chance

Over 2.547.5%

Reasonable chance

BTTS · Yes46.1%

Reasonable chance

Corners markets

Over 8.550.4%

Good chance

Over 9.540.6%

Toss-up

Over 10.531.8%

Toss-up

Over 11.524.3%

Low chance

Most cornersFrosinone 53.2% · Juventus 36.2%

Totals line guide

0.5·1.573.3%2.547.5%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 1.573.3%

Discipline: NO_ODDS.

Form & head-to-head

FrosinoneWDLWL
JuventusDDWLD

Last 5 meetings: Frosinone 0 · 0 draws · Juventus 5 · 3.0 goals/game.

2024-02-25Juventus 3-2 Frosinone
2023-12-23Frosinone 1-2 Juventus
2019-02-15Juventus 3-0 Frosinone
2018-09-23Frosinone 0-2 Juventus
2016-02-07Frosinone 0-2 Juventus

Players to watch

Top 3 per side by recent form, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup

Jeremie BogaJuventus · key player
To score23.4%

@ 4.27

1+ on target55.0%

@ 1.82

2+ shots47.5%

@ 2.11

Shots/90 3.24SoT/90 1.62Goals/90 0.54
Dusan VlahovicJuventus · in form
To score29.7%

@ 3.37

1+ on target62.4%

@ 1.60

2+ shots73.7%

@ 1.36

Shots/90 4.1SoT/90 1.53Goals/90 0.55
Randal Kolo MuaniJuventus · in form
To score39.2%

@ 2.55

1+ on target58.2%

@ 1.72

2+ shots48.3%

@ 2.07

Shots/90 1.99SoT/90 1.07Goals/90 0.61

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Frosinone win6.34
Draw4.18
Juventus win1.66
Both teams to score2.17

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.09
Over 1.5 goals1.36
Over 2.5 goals2.10
Over 3.5 goals3.87
Frosinone most6.34
Juventus most1.66

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.60
Over 8.5 corners1.94
Over 9.5 corners2.45
Over 10.5 corners3.21
Frosinone most1.87
Juventus most2.75

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.46
Over 3.5 cards2.11
Over 4.5 cards3.47
Over 5.5 cards6.46
Frosinone most2.67
Juventus most2.45

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.52
Over 7.5 SoT1.84
Over 8.5 SoT2.31
Over 9.5 SoT3.03
Frosinone most2.37
Juventus most2.18

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.70
Over 24.5 shots2.14
Over 26.5 shots2.83
Over 28.5 shots3.94
Frosinone most1.82
Juventus most2.56

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.48
Over 22.5 fouls1.85
Over 24.5 fouls2.48
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots on target

Over 6.5 66.0% Over 7.5 54.5% Over 8.5 43.2% Over 9.5 33.0%
Most: Frosinone 42.1% Most: Juventus 45.9%
Frosinone Over 4.2 37.3% Juventus Over 4.2 40.1%

Cards

Over 2.5 68.6% Over 3.5 47.5% Over 4.5 28.8%
Most: Frosinone 37.4% Most: Juventus 40.8%
Frosinone Over 1.8 51.5% Juventus Over 1.8 54.0%

Juventus: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Jeremie Boga 3.24 1.62 0.54 55.0% 47.5% 23.4%
Dusan Vlahovic 4.1 1.53 0.55 62.4% 73.7% 29.7%
Randal Kolo Muani 1.99 1.07 0.61 58.2% 48.3% 39.2%
Kenan Yildiz 2.69 1.05 0.29 58.1% 65.2% 21.3%
Nicolás González 2.35 1.05 0.15 52.8% 50.1% 10.2%

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 15.8% draw 23.9% away 60.3%
double_chance
1X 39.7% 12 76.1% X2 84.2%
dnb
home 20.7% away 79.3%
btts
yes 46.1% no 53.9%
clean_sheet
home 16.9% away 45.2%
win_to_nil
home 8.7% away 37.1%
winning_margin
home_by_1 10.9% home_by_2 3.8% home_by_3plus 1.1%
away_by_1 25.1% away_by_2 18.9% away_by_3plus 16.3%
correct_score
0-0 8.2% 0-1 13.0% 0-2 12.1%
0-3 7.2% 0-4 3.2% 0-5 1.1%
1-0 5.5% 1-1 11.3% 1-2 9.6%
1-3 5.7% 1-4 2.5% 1-5 0.9%
2-0 2.4% 2-1 4.3% 2-2 3.8%
2-3 2.3% 2-4 1.0% 2-5 0.4%
3-0 0.6% 3-1 1.1% 3-2 1.0%
3-3 0.6% 3-4 0.3% 3-5 0.1%
4-0 0.1% 4-1 0.2% 4-2 0.2%
4-3 0.1% 4-4 0.1% 4-5 0.0%
5-0 0.0% 5-1 0.0% 5-2 0.0%
5-3 0.0% 5-4 0.0% 5-5 0.0%
other 1.0%
likeliest_score
h 0.0% a 100.0% p 13.0%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 91.8% under_0.5 8.2% over_1.5 73.3%
under_1.5 26.7% over_2.5 47.5% under_2.5 52.5%
over_3.5 25.9% under_3.5 74.2% over_4.5 11.9%
under_4.5 88.1% over_5.5 4.7% under_5.5 95.3%
odd_even
odd 48.6% even 51.4%
team_home
over_0.5 54.8% under_0.5 45.2% over_1.5 18.9%
under_1.5 81.1% over_2.5 4.7% under_2.5 95.3%
team_away
over_0.5 83.1% under_0.5 16.9% over_1.5 53.1%
under_1.5 46.9% over_2.5 26.4% under_2.5 73.6%
most
home 15.8% draw 23.9% away 60.3%
handicap
home_-2.5 1.1% away_+2.5 98.9% home_-1.5 4.9%
away_+1.5 95.1% home_-0.5 15.8% away_+0.5 84.2%
home_+0.5 39.7% away_-0.5 60.3% home_+1.5 64.9%
away_-1.5 35.2% home_+2.5 83.7% away_-2.5 16.3%
total_exact
exact_0 8.2% exact_1 18.5% exact_2 25.8%
exact_3 21.7% exact_4 13.9% exact_5 7.2%
exact_6 3.1% exact_7plus 1.6%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 20.1% draw 44.1% away 35.9%
total
over_0.5 66.0% under_0.5 34.0% over_1.5 29.3%
under_1.5 70.7% over_2.5 9.6% under_2.5 90.5%
btts
yes 16.6% no 83.5%
total_exact
exact_0 34.0% exact_1 36.7% exact_2 19.8%
exact_3 7.1% exact_4plus 2.4%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 21.9% draw 36.5% away 41.6%
total
over_0.5 76.8% under_0.5 23.2% over_1.5 42.9%
under_1.5 57.2% over_2.5 18.1% under_2.5 81.9%
btts
yes 25.5% no 74.5%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 12.8% H/D 4.7% H/A 2.6%
D/H 9.7% D/D 16.1% D/A 18.3%
A/H 1.4% A/D 4.7% A/A 29.8%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 62.7% under_7.5 37.3% over_8.5 51.5%
under_8.5 48.5% over_9.5 40.8% under_9.5 59.2%
over_10.5 31.2% under_10.5 68.9% over_11.5 23.0%
under_11.5 77.0% over_12.5 16.4% under_12.5 83.6%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 65.1% under_3.5 34.9% over_4.5 50.5%
under_4.5 49.5% over_5.5 37.2% under_5.5 62.8%
team_away
over_3.5 53.1% under_3.5 46.9% over_4.5 37.7%
under_4.5 62.3% over_5.5 25.2% under_5.5 74.8%
most
home 53.3% draw 10.3% away 36.3%
handicap
home_-3.5 24.4% away_+3.5 75.6% home_-1.5 42.8%
away_+1.5 57.2% home_-0.5 53.3% away_+0.5 46.7%
home_+0.5 63.7% away_-0.5 36.3% home_+1.5 73.1%
away_-1.5 26.9% home_+3.5 87.2% away_-3.5 12.8%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 58.8% under_22.5 41.2% over_24.5 46.8%
under_24.5 53.2% over_26.5 35.4% under_26.5 64.6%
over_28.5 25.4% under_28.5 74.6%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 66.0% under_10.5 34.0% over_12.5 49.6%
under_12.5 50.4% over_14.5 34.3% under_14.5 65.7%
team_away
over_10.5 55.2% under_10.5 44.8% over_12.5 38.1%
under_12.5 61.9% over_14.5 24.1% under_14.5 75.9%
most
home 55.0% draw 6.0% away 39.0%
handicap
home_-4.5 31.3% away_+4.5 68.7% home_-2.5 42.8%
away_+2.5 57.2% home_-0.5 55.0% away_+0.5 45.0%
home_+0.5 61.0% away_-0.5 39.0% home_+2.5 72.1%
away_-2.5 27.9% home_+4.5 81.4% away_-4.5 18.6%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 66.0% under_6.5 34.0% over_7.5 54.5%
under_7.5 45.5% over_8.5 43.2% under_8.5 56.8%
over_9.5 33.1% under_9.5 67.0%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 53.1% under_3.5 46.9% over_4.5 37.3%
under_4.5 62.7% over_5.5 24.7% under_5.5 75.3%
team_away
over_3.5 55.8% under_3.5 44.3% over_4.5 40.1%
under_4.5 59.9% over_5.5 27.1% under_5.5 72.9%
most
home 42.1% draw 11.9% away 46.0%
handicap
home_-2.5 21.5% away_+2.5 78.5% home_-0.5 42.1%
away_+0.5 57.9% home_+0.5 54.1% away_-0.5 46.0%
home_+2.5 75.5% away_-2.5 24.5%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 68.6% under_2.5 31.4% over_3.5 47.5%
under_3.5 52.5% over_4.5 28.8% under_4.5 71.2%
over_5.5 15.5% under_5.5 84.5%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.1%
team_home
over_1.5 51.5% under_1.5 48.5% over_2.5 25.5%
under_2.5 74.6%
team_away
over_1.5 54.0% under_1.5 46.0% over_2.5 27.7%
under_2.5 72.3%
most
home 37.4% draw 21.8% away 40.8%
handicap
home_-1.5 19.4% away_+1.5 80.6% home_-0.5 37.4%
away_+0.5 62.6% home_+0.5 59.2% away_-0.5 40.8%
home_+1.5 78.0% away_-1.5 22.0%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 67.6% under_20.5 32.4% over_22.5 54.0%
under_22.5 46.0% over_24.5 40.4% under_24.5 59.6%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 60.7% under_9.5 39.3% over_11.5 40.4%
under_11.5 59.6% over_13.5 23.5% under_13.5 76.5%
team_away
over_9.5 75.0% under_9.5 25.0% over_11.5 56.9%
under_11.5 43.1% over_13.5 38.6% under_13.5 61.4%
most
home 35.1% draw 6.7% away 58.2%
handicap
home_-3.5 18.2% away_+3.5 81.8% home_-0.5 35.1%
away_+0.5 64.9% home_+2.5 55.8% away_-2.5 44.2%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 11.1% no 88.9%
home
yes 6.0% no 94.0%
away
yes 5.4% no 94.6%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0097 (54671 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Frosinone predictions · Juventus predictions · Serie A

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

Explore this match

Serie AFrosinoneJuventusTrack record