Serie AFrosinone vs 
Juventus Correct Score
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Most likely · 13.0% at 0-1, its strongest read on the Correct Score market. It is driven by both attacks and defences: Frosinone have averaged 0.8 scored and 1.2 conceded, Juventus 0.8 and 1.0 over their recent games. That fits a balanced goals environment: 47.5% for over 2.5 and 73.3% for at least two goals. Their last 5 meetings have averaged 3.0 goals a game. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Correct Score
| Scoreline | Probability |
|---|---|
| 0-1 | 13.0% |
| 0-2 | 12.1% |
| 1-1 | 11.3% |
| 1-2 | 9.6% |
| 0-0 | 8.2% |
| 0-3 | 7.2% |
| 1-3 | 5.7% |
| 1-0 | 5.5% |
Score probability grid
| Frosinone \ Juventus | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8% | 13% | 12% | 7% | 3% | 1% |
| 1 | 6% | 11% | 10% | 6% | 3% | 1% |
| 2 | 2% | 4% | 4% | 2% | 1% | · |
| 3 | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | · | · |
| 4 | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| 5 | · | · | · | · | · | · |
Rows = Frosinone goals, columns = Juventus. The most likely scoreline is 0-1 at 13.0%. No exact score is ever truly likely; the value is in the full distribution the model assigns. Darker cells carry more probability.
Goals distribution
The model’s probability for the total number of goals, the shape behind every goals market. The 5+ bar groups every result with five or more goals.
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In-depth analysis
On the goals side, the model sees 47.5% for three or more goals and 73.3% for at least two, painting a balanced picture. With Juventus favoured at 63.5%, they may control possession and keep things tighter.
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
Key players
Recent-form projection, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Frosinone 0 · 0 draws · Juventus 5 · 3.0 goals/game.
FAQ
What is the most likely score in Frosinone vs Juventus?
The model's most likely scoreline for Frosinone vs Juventus is 0-1 at 13.0%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Overall model accuracy
We don’t yet publish a graded Correct Score-specific track record, so this is our overall accuracy across every 1X2 call, graded out-of-sample, updated daily.
Predictions & track record updated 28 Jul 2026. See the full, dated track record →
More Serie A, Correct Score
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.