Exeter vs Accrington: model prediction
League TwoOver 1.5 goals
Draw or Accrington
Exeter or draw
Full time1 of 2 calls right
Our most likely call was Accrington at 38.4%, and it was wrong. We called Under 2.5 at 55.7% and it landed (2 goals). We called Yes at 50.4% and it missed.
Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.
Prediction summary
Top 3 convictions
Model read
▾
Little between these two in the data. Accrington at 38% is as close to a call as the model will offer for 22 August 2026. Three things stand out in the data: 1) Notably, the model is warmer on Accrington than the market (24%). We flag disagreement rather than hide it. 2) This shapes as a low scoring affair: Over 2.5 is only 44% with both teams to score at 50%. 3) History adds colour: across the last 5 meetings it is 3 wins for Exeter, 1 draws and 1 for Accrington at 2.4 goals per match. The run in: Exeter arrive W2 D1 L3, Accrington W0 D3 L3. Exeter are newly promoted, a profile the model deliberately prices with caution. The engine passes on this one (too extreme an outsider (fair 0.24)).
Value & higher-risk angles
Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.
Model vs market
33.0%-16.2%
28.6%+1.9%
38.4%+14.3%
too extreme an outsider (fair 0.24)
Goals markets
Strong chance
Reasonable chance
Good chance
Corners markets
Strong chance
Good chance
Toss-up
Toss-up
Shots markets
Good chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Low chance
Totals line guide
Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Exeter 3 · 1 draws · Accrington 1 · 2.4 goals/game.
Season stats
Season 2026/27, real results only
Bookmaker odds
Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Goals
Corners
Cards
Shots on target
Shots
Fouls
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots on target
| Over 6.5 | 64.9% | Over 7.5 | 52.1% | Over 8.5 | 39.7% | Over 9.5 | 28.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Exeter | 51.7% | Most: Accrington | 35.4% | ||||
| Exeter Over 4.2 | 42.0% | Accrington Over 4.2 | 30.6% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 | 71.5% | Over 3.5 | 50.7% | Over 4.5 | 31.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Exeter | 29.6% | Most: Accrington | 49.4% | ||
| Exeter Over 1.8 | 47.6% | Accrington Over 1.8 | 62.1% |
Clean sheet & win to nil
| Exeter clean sheet | 27.8% |
|---|---|
| Accrington clean sheet | 31.1% |
| Exeter win to nil | 18.5% |
| Accrington win to nil | 21.8% |
Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home | 33.0% | draw | 28.6% | away | 38.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
double_chance
| 1X | 61.6% | 12 | 71.4% | X2 | 67.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
dnb
| home | 46.2% | away | 53.8% |
|---|
btts
| yes | 50.3% | no | 49.7% |
|---|
clean_sheet
| home | 27.8% | away | 31.1% |
|---|
win_to_nil
| home | 18.5% | away | 21.8% |
|---|
winning_margin
| home_by_1 | 19.1% | home_by_2 | 9.4% | home_by_3plus | 4.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_by_1 | 21.0% | away_by_2 | 11.4% | away_by_3plus | 6.1% |
correct_score
| 0-0 | 9.3% | 0-1 | 10.4% | 0-2 | 7.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | 3.0% | 0-4 | 1.0% | 0-5 | 0.3% |
| 1-0 | 9.5% | 1-1 | 13.6% | 1-2 | 8.3% |
| 1-3 | 3.5% | 1-4 | 1.1% | 1-5 | 0.3% |
| 2-0 | 5.9% | 2-1 | 7.5% | 2-2 | 4.8% |
| 2-3 | 2.1% | 2-4 | 0.7% | 2-5 | 0.2% |
| 3-0 | 2.3% | 3-1 | 2.9% | 3-2 | 1.9% |
| 3-3 | 0.8% | 3-4 | 0.3% | 3-5 | 0.1% |
| 4-0 | 0.7% | 4-1 | 0.9% | 4-2 | 0.5% |
| 4-3 | 0.2% | 4-4 | 0.1% | 4-5 | 0.0% |
| 5-0 | 0.2% | 5-1 | 0.2% | 5-2 | 0.1% |
| 5-3 | 0.1% | 5-4 | 0.0% | 5-5 | 0.0% |
| other | 0.3% |
likeliest_score
| h | 100.0% | a | 100.0% | p | 13.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 | 90.7% | under_0.5 | 9.3% | over_1.5 | 70.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 29.2% | over_2.5 | 44.3% | under_2.5 | 55.7% |
| over_3.5 | 23.1% | under_3.5 | 76.9% | over_4.5 | 10.2% |
| under_4.5 | 89.8% | over_5.5 | 3.9% | under_5.5 | 96.1% |
odd_even
| odd | 48.3% | even | 51.7% |
|---|
team_home
| over_0.5 | 68.9% | under_0.5 | 31.1% | over_1.5 | 32.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 67.5% | over_2.5 | 11.4% | under_2.5 | 88.6% |
team_away
| over_0.5 | 72.2% | under_0.5 | 27.8% | over_1.5 | 36.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 63.4% | over_2.5 | 13.9% | under_2.5 | 86.2% |
most
| home | 33.0% | draw | 28.6% | away | 38.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 4.4% | away_+2.5 | 95.6% | home_-1.5 | 13.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 86.1% | home_-0.5 | 33.0% | away_+0.5 | 67.0% |
| home_+0.5 | 61.6% | away_-0.5 | 38.4% | home_+1.5 | 82.6% |
| away_-1.5 | 17.4% | home_+2.5 | 94.0% | away_-2.5 | 6.1% |
total_exact
| exact_0 | 9.3% | exact_1 | 19.9% | exact_2 | 26.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 21.1% | exact_4 | 12.9% | exact_5 | 6.3% |
| exact_6 | 2.6% | exact_7plus | 1.3% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 27.9% | draw | 43.8% | away | 28.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 67.2% | under_0.5 | 32.8% | over_1.5 | 30.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 69.4% | over_2.5 | 10.3% | under_2.5 | 89.7% |
btts
| yes | 18.3% | no | 81.7% |
|---|
total_exact
| exact_0 | 32.8% | exact_1 | 36.6% | exact_2 | 20.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 7.6% | exact_4plus | 2.7% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 37.6% | draw | 42.1% | away | 20.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 68.7% | under_0.5 | 31.3% | over_1.5 | 32.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 67.6% | over_2.5 | 11.3% | under_2.5 | 88.8% |
btts
| yes | 18.4% | no | 81.6% |
|---|
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H | 23.4% | H/D | 3.7% | H/A | 0.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D/H | 16.5% | D/D | 18.4% | D/A | 8.9% |
| A/H | 2.6% | A/D | 6.1% | A/A | 19.5% |
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 | 74.2% | under_7.5 | 25.8% | over_8.5 | 63.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_8.5 | 37.0% | over_9.5 | 51.3% | under_9.5 | 48.7% |
| over_10.5 | 39.8% | under_10.5 | 60.2% | over_11.5 | 29.6% |
| under_11.5 | 70.4% | over_12.5 | 21.0% | under_12.5 | 79.0% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 74.6% | under_3.5 | 25.4% | over_4.5 | 59.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 40.2% | over_5.5 | 44.7% | under_5.5 | 55.3% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 61.3% | under_3.5 | 38.7% | over_4.5 | 44.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 55.7% | over_5.5 | 29.5% | under_5.5 | 70.5% |
most
| home | 55.1% | draw | 10.5% | away | 34.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 24.7% | away_+3.5 | 75.3% | home_-1.5 | 44.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 55.8% | home_-0.5 | 55.1% | away_+0.5 | 44.9% |
| home_+0.5 | 65.6% | away_-0.5 | 34.4% | home_+1.5 | 75.0% |
| away_-1.5 | 25.0% | home_+3.5 | 88.8% | away_-3.5 | 11.2% |
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 | 55.5% | under_22.5 | 44.5% | over_24.5 | 42.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_24.5 | 57.4% | over_26.5 | 30.9% | under_26.5 | 69.1% |
| over_28.5 | 21.1% | under_28.5 | 79.0% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_10.5 | 67.0% | under_10.5 | 33.0% | over_12.5 | 49.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 50.5% | over_14.5 | 33.3% | under_14.5 | 66.7% |
team_away
| over_10.5 | 50.3% | under_10.5 | 49.7% | over_12.5 | 32.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 67.7% | over_14.5 | 18.6% | under_14.5 | 81.4% |
most
| home | 58.9% | draw | 6.3% | away | 34.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-4.5 | 33.3% | away_+4.5 | 66.7% | home_-2.5 | 45.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+2.5 | 54.2% | home_-0.5 | 58.9% | away_+0.5 | 41.1% |
| home_+0.5 | 65.2% | away_-0.5 | 34.8% | home_+2.5 | 76.5% |
| away_-2.5 | 23.5% | home_+4.5 | 85.3% | away_-4.5 | 14.7% |
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 | 64.9% | under_6.5 | 35.1% | over_7.5 | 52.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_7.5 | 47.9% | over_8.5 | 39.7% | under_8.5 | 60.3% |
| over_9.5 | 28.8% | under_9.5 | 71.2% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 59.2% | under_3.5 | 40.8% | over_4.5 | 42.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 58.0% | over_5.5 | 27.5% | under_5.5 | 72.5% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 47.6% | under_3.5 | 52.4% | over_4.5 | 30.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 69.4% | over_5.5 | 17.9% | under_5.5 | 82.1% |
most
| home | 51.7% | draw | 12.9% | away | 35.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 27.1% | away_+2.5 | 72.9% | home_-0.5 | 51.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 48.3% | home_+0.5 | 64.6% | away_-0.5 | 35.4% |
| home_+2.5 | 84.8% | away_-2.5 | 15.2% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 | 71.6% | under_2.5 | 28.4% | over_3.5 | 50.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_3.5 | 49.3% | over_4.5 | 31.4% | under_4.5 | 68.6% |
| over_5.5 | 17.1% | under_5.5 | 82.9% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_1.5 | 47.6% | under_1.5 | 52.4% | over_2.5 | 21.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 78.2% |
team_away
| over_1.5 | 62.1% | under_1.5 | 37.9% | over_2.5 | 35.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 64.9% |
most
| home | 29.6% | draw | 21.0% | away | 49.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-1.5 | 14.1% | away_+1.5 | 85.9% | home_-0.5 | 29.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 70.4% | home_+0.5 | 50.6% | away_-0.5 | 49.4% |
| home_+1.5 | 71.0% | away_-1.5 | 29.0% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 | 66.1% | under_20.5 | 33.9% | over_22.5 | 50.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_22.5 | 49.4% | over_24.5 | 35.6% | under_24.5 | 64.4% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_9.5 | 57.4% | under_9.5 | 42.6% | over_11.5 | 34.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 65.2% | over_13.5 | 17.6% | under_13.5 | 82.4% |
team_away
| over_9.5 | 77.4% | under_9.5 | 22.6% | over_11.5 | 57.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 42.3% | over_13.5 | 37.1% | under_13.5 | 62.9% |
most
| home | 30.6% | draw | 7.2% | away | 62.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 13.6% | away_+3.5 | 86.5% | home_-0.5 | 30.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 69.4% | home_+2.5 | 53.3% | away_-2.5 | 46.7% |
Red card range, not a point
any
| yes | 15.6% | no | 84.4% |
|---|
home
| yes | 5.5% | no | 94.6% |
|---|
away
| yes | 10.7% | no | 89.3% |
|---|
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.
Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.
We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.
Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).
More: Exeter predictions · Accrington predictions · League Two
Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.
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