League TwoExeter vs Accrington Shots
Result
Settled, final score 2-0. We don’t store the live count for this market, so there is no graded verdict here.
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 24.5 shots at 42.6%, its strongest read on the Shots market. Line by line, the read runs from 55.5% for over 22.5 to 21.1% for over 28.5, with over 22.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 55.5%. Between the two sides, Exeter are the model’s pick to have more shots at 58.9%, with a level count at 6.3%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Shots
Total shots, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 22.5 shots | 55.5% | 44.5% |
| 24.5 shots | 42.6% | 57.4% |
| 26.5 shots | 30.9% | 69.1% |
| 28.5 shots | 21.1% | 79.0% |
Who takes more shots
Team shot lines
67.0%
49.5%
33.3%
50.3%
32.4%
18.6%
Shot handicap
| Exeter line | Exeter | Accrington |
|---|---|---|
| -4.5 | 33.3% | 66.7% |
| -2.5 | 45.9% | 54.2% |
| -0.5 | 58.9% | 41.1% |
| +0.5 | 65.2% | 34.8% |
Shots on target
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 shots on target | 64.9% | 35.1% |
| 7.5 shots on target | 52.1% | 47.9% |
| 8.5 shots on target | 39.7% | 60.3% |
| 9.5 shots on target | 28.8% | 71.2% |
Shot volume tracks territory and game state more than the scoreline, below are the model total-shot probabilities. It edges Exeter.
In-depth analysis
42.6%Over 24.5 shots49.5%Exeter over 12.5 shots32.4%Accrington over 12.5 shots52.1%Over 7.5 on targetSplit by side, Exeter over 12.5 shots sits at 49.5% and Accrington at 32.4%.
We publish the model, not a sure thing. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many shots in Exeter vs Accrington?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 24.5 total shots at 42.6% for Exeter vs Accrington.
Which team will have more shots in Exeter vs Accrington?
Before kickoff, the model rated Exeter to take more shots at 58.9%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Shots accuracy
How our Shots calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 16,635 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Shots actually happened 47.0% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 14 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Shots calls
The model’s most recent graded Shots predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.