Alaves vs Getafe prediction & probabilities (2026-08-15)

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Alaves vs Getafe: model prediction

La Liga
Alaves

LDWWL

Sat, 15 Aug 202608:30UK
Getafe

LDWLW

Model’s top convictions

76%

Alaves or draw

67%

Under 2.5 goals

61%

Over 8.5 corners

No bet

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
AlavesWin probability
45.8%
Top 3 convictions

Alaves or draw76.1%Strong chancePays @ 1.31
Under 2.5 goals67.1%Strong chancePays @ 1.49
Over 8.5 corners61.0%Strong chancePays @ 1.64

Model read

▾

"Alaves or Getafe? We publish probabilities, not certainties." Alaves versus Getafe on 15 August 2026 tilts towards Alaves in our numbers (46%), with plenty left over for the other outcomes. This shapes as a low scoring affair: Over 2.5 is only 33% with both teams to score at 40%. Form guide over the last six: Alaves W3 D1 L2, Getafe W2 D1 L3. The recent series reads 1 wins for Alaves, 1 draws and 3 for Getafe over 5 games, 1.6 goals on average. For shots markets, Antonio Martínez is the obvious watch at 1.2 on target per 90 in recent data. Verdict: no bet. The numbers do not clear our bar.

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 10.5 corners39.9%@ 2.51
Over 2.5 goals32.9%@ 3.04
Over 11.5 corners30.6%@ 3.27
Medium risk

Over 1.5 goals60.6%@ 1.65
Not both teams to score60.5%@ 1.65
Draw or Getafe54.2%@ 1.84
Random finds

1-0 correct score15.4%@ 6.51
0-0 correct score13.9%@ 7.19
1-1 correct score13.6%@ 7.36

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Alaves

45.8%

Draw

30.3%

Getafe

23.9%

Model

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.560.6%

Strong chance

Over 2.532.9%

Toss-up

BTTS · Yes39.5%

Toss-up

Corners markets

Over 8.561.0%

Strong chance

Over 9.550.2%

Good chance

Over 10.539.9%

Toss-up

Over 11.530.6%

Toss-up

Most cornersAlaves 58.5% · Getafe 31.0%

Totals line guide

0.5·1.560.6%2.532.9%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 1.560.6%

Discipline: NO_ODDS.

Form & head-to-head

AlavesLDWWL
GetafeLDWLW

Last 5 meetings: Alaves 1 · 1 draws · Getafe 3 · 1.6 goals/game.

2026-02-08Alaves 0-2 Getafe
2025-09-24Getafe 1-1 Alaves
2025-02-09Alaves 0-1 Getafe
2024-09-28Getafe 2-0 Alaves
2024-05-18Alaves 1-0 Getafe

Season stats

Season 2025/26, real results only

AlavesGetafe
League position#14 of 20#7 of 20
Record W-D-L11-10-1715-6-17
Current streakL1W1
Points per game1.131.34
Record, home vs away7-6-67-3-9
PPG, home vs away1.421.26
Goals scored per game1.160.84
Goals conceded per game1.471.00
Scored, home vs away1.320.74
Conceded, home vs away1.321.16
1st half goals per game0.530.37
2nd half goals per game0.630.47
Corners won per game5.14.3
Cards per game2.63.1
Fouls per game14.915.2
Red cards this season58
Shots on target per game4.02.8
xG for per game1.410.89
xG against per game1.391.27
Over 2.5 rate

50.0%26.3%

BTTS rate

63.2%28.9%

Clean sheets

13.2%31.6%

Rates this season:AlavesGetafe

League averages this season: 2.69 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 50% · BTTS in 57%. Full league tables & stats →

Players to watch

Top 3 per side by recent form, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup

Antonio MartínezAlaves · key player
To score24.4%

@ 4.10

1+ on target53.6%

@ 1.87

2+ shots62.3%

@ 1.61

Shots/90 3.32SoT/90 1.21Goals/90 0.44
Alvaro RodríguezGetafe · key player
To score8.8%

@ 11.36

1+ on target36.4%

@ 2.75

2+ shots31.5%

@ 3.17

Shots/90 2.71SoT/90 1.08Goals/90 0.22
Tomás ConechnyAlaves · in form
To score4.5%

@ 22.22

1+ on target36.7%

@ 2.72

2+ shots26.5%

@ 3.77

Shots/90 2.37SoT/90 1.08Goals/90 0.11
Javi MuñozGetafe · in form
To score0.0%

@ ·

1+ on target29.6%

@ 3.38

2+ shots20.0%

@ 5.00

Shots/90 2.39SoT/90 1.02Goals/90 0
Kike GarcíaAlaves · in form
To score31.3%

@ 3.19

1+ on target53.9%

@ 1.86

2+ shots53.8%

@ 1.86

Shots/90 2.21SoT/90 0.95Goals/90 0.46
JuanmiGetafe · in form
To score4.8%

@ 20.83

1+ on target28.4%

@ 3.52

2+ shots16.0%

@ 6.25

Shots/90 1.58SoT/90 0.74Goals/90 0.11

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Alaves win2.23
Draw3.22
Getafe win4.15
Both teams to score2.53

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.16
Over 1.5 goals1.65
Over 2.5 goals3.04
Over 3.5 goals6.80
Alaves most2.23
Getafe most4.15

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.33
Over 8.5 corners1.57
Over 9.5 corners1.94
Over 10.5 corners2.51
Alaves most1.71
Getafe most3.22

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.13
Over 3.5 cards1.32
Over 4.5 cards1.69
Over 5.5 cards2.37
Alaves most2.96
Getafe most2.04

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.52
Over 7.5 SoT1.91
Over 8.5 SoT2.54
Over 9.5 SoT3.59
Alaves most1.68
Getafe most3.61

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.81
Over 24.5 shots2.36
Over 26.5 shots3.27
Over 28.5 shots4.82
Alaves most1.59
Getafe most3.24

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.08
Over 22.5 fouls1.17
Over 24.5 fouls1.31
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots on target

Over 6.5 65.8% Over 7.5 52.4% Over 8.5 39.3% Over 9.5 27.9%
Most: Alaves 59.7% Most: Getafe 27.7%
Alaves Over 4.2 47.4% Getafe Over 4.2 24.7%

Cards

Over 2.5 88.5% Over 3.5 75.6% Over 4.5 59.1%
Most: Alaves 33.8% Most: Getafe 49.0%
Alaves Over 1.8 67.9% Getafe Over 1.8 76.6%

Alaves: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Antonio Martínez 3.32 1.21 0.44 53.6% 62.3% 24.4%
Tomás Conechny 2.37 1.08 0.11 36.7% 26.5% 4.5%
Kike García 2.21 0.95 0.46 53.9% 53.8% 31.3%
Lucas Boyé 2.89 0.92 0.51 49.9% 63.8% 31.8%
Carlos Martín 1.71 0.79 0.13 37.0% 26.4% 7.3%

Getafe: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Alvaro Rodríguez 2.71 1.08 0.22 36.4% 31.5% 8.8%
Javi Muñoz 2.39 1.02 0 29.6% 20.0% 0.0%
Juanmi 1.58 0.74 0.11 28.4% 16.0% 4.8%
Martín Satriano 1.96 0.73 0.34 51.6% 57.9% 28.7%
Borja Mayoral 1.47 0.67 0.38 32.8% 21.7% 20.2%

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 44.9% draw 31.0% away 24.1%
double_chance
1X 75.9% 12 69.0% X2 55.1%
dnb
home 65.0% away 35.0%
btts
yes 39.5% no 60.5%
clean_sheet
home 44.5% away 29.9%
win_to_nil
home 30.6% away 16.0%
winning_margin
home_by_1 24.6% home_by_2 13.3% home_by_3plus 7.0%
away_by_1 16.3% away_by_2 6.0% away_by_3plus 1.8%
correct_score
0-0 13.9% 0-1 10.1% 0-2 4.4%
0-3 1.2% 0-4 0.2% 0-5 0.0%
1-0 15.4% 1-1 13.6% 1-2 5.2%
1-3 1.4% 1-4 0.3% 1-5 0.1%
2-0 9.7% 2-1 7.8% 2-2 3.2%
2-3 0.9% 2-4 0.2% 2-5 0.0%
3-0 4.0% 3-1 3.2% 3-2 1.3%
3-3 0.3% 3-4 0.1% 3-5 0.0%
4-0 1.2% 4-1 1.0% 4-2 0.4%
4-3 0.1% 4-4 0.0% 4-5 0.0%
5-0 0.3% 5-1 0.2% 5-2 0.1%
5-3 0.0% 5-4 0.0% 5-5 0.0%
other 0.2%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 0.0% p 15.4%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 86.1% under_0.5 13.9% over_1.5 60.6%
under_1.5 39.4% over_2.5 32.9% under_2.5 67.1%
over_3.5 14.7% under_3.5 85.3% over_4.5 5.5%
under_4.5 94.5% over_5.5 1.8% under_5.5 98.3%
odd_even
odd 47.8% even 52.2%
team_home
over_0.5 70.1% under_0.5 29.9% over_1.5 34.2%
under_1.5 65.8% over_2.5 12.4% under_2.5 87.6%
team_away
over_0.5 55.5% under_0.5 44.5% over_1.5 19.5%
under_1.5 80.5% over_2.5 4.9% under_2.5 95.1%
most
home 44.9% draw 31.0% away 24.1%
handicap
home_-2.5 7.0% away_+2.5 93.0% home_-1.5 20.3%
away_+1.5 79.7% home_-0.5 44.9% away_+0.5 55.1%
home_+0.5 75.9% away_-0.5 24.1% home_+1.5 92.2%
away_-1.5 7.8% home_+2.5 98.2% away_-2.5 1.8%
total_exact
exact_0 13.9% exact_1 25.5% exact_2 27.7%
exact_3 18.2% exact_4 9.2% exact_5 3.7%
exact_6 1.3% exact_7plus 0.5%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 30.5% draw 51.9% away 17.6%
total
over_0.5 55.2% under_0.5 44.8% over_1.5 19.3%
under_1.5 80.8% over_2.5 4.8% under_2.5 95.2%
btts
yes 10.4% no 89.6%
total_exact
exact_0 44.8% exact_1 36.0% exact_2 14.5%
exact_3 3.9% exact_4plus 0.9%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 30.4% draw 43.5% away 26.1%
total
over_0.5 67.6% under_0.5 32.4% over_1.5 31.0%
under_1.5 69.0% over_2.5 10.5% under_2.5 89.5%
btts
yes 18.5% no 81.5%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 23.9% H/D 5.1% H/A 1.5%
D/H 15.8% D/D 22.6% D/A 13.6%
A/H 1.2% A/D 3.6% A/A 12.9%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 74.9% under_7.5 25.1% over_8.5 63.7%
under_8.5 36.4% over_9.5 51.6% under_9.5 48.4%
over_10.5 39.8% under_10.5 60.2% over_11.5 29.2%
under_11.5 70.8% over_12.5 20.5% under_12.5 79.5%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 77.0% under_3.5 23.0% over_4.5 62.6%
under_4.5 37.5% over_5.5 47.4% under_5.5 52.6%
team_away
over_3.5 58.9% under_3.5 41.1% over_4.5 41.5%
under_4.5 58.5% over_5.5 26.9% under_5.5 73.2%
most
home 58.6% draw 10.3% away 31.1%
handicap
home_-3.5 27.5% away_+3.5 72.5% home_-1.5 47.8%
away_+1.5 52.2% home_-0.5 58.6% away_+0.5 41.4%
home_+0.5 68.9% away_-0.5 31.1% home_+1.5 77.9%
away_-1.5 22.1% home_+3.5 90.6% away_-3.5 9.5%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 55.3% under_22.5 44.7% over_24.5 42.4%
under_24.5 57.6% over_26.5 30.6% under_26.5 69.4%
over_28.5 20.8% under_28.5 79.2%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 69.4% under_10.5 30.6% over_12.5 52.2%
under_12.5 47.8% over_14.5 35.8% under_14.5 64.2%
team_away
over_10.5 47.1% under_10.5 52.9% over_12.5 29.3%
under_12.5 70.7% over_14.5 16.2% under_14.5 83.8%
most
home 63.0% draw 6.1% away 30.9%
handicap
home_-4.5 37.1% away_+4.5 62.9% home_-2.5 50.0%
away_+2.5 50.0% home_-0.5 63.0% away_+0.5 37.0%
home_+0.5 69.1% away_-0.5 30.9% home_+2.5 79.7%
away_-2.5 20.3% home_+4.5 87.8% away_-4.5 12.3%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 65.8% under_6.5 34.2% over_7.5 52.4%
under_7.5 47.6% over_8.5 39.3% under_8.5 60.7%
over_9.5 27.9% under_9.5 72.1%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 65.1% under_3.5 34.9% over_4.5 47.4%
under_4.5 52.6% over_5.5 31.5% under_5.5 68.5%
team_away
over_3.5 42.0% under_3.5 58.0% over_4.5 24.7%
under_4.5 75.3% over_5.5 13.0% under_5.5 87.0%
most
home 59.7% draw 12.7% away 27.7%
handicap
home_-2.5 33.0% away_+2.5 67.0% home_-0.5 59.7%
away_+0.5 40.3% home_+0.5 72.3% away_-0.5 27.7%
home_+2.5 90.0% away_-2.5 10.0%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 88.6% under_2.5 11.5% over_3.5 75.6%
under_3.5 24.4% over_4.5 59.2% under_4.5 40.8%
over_5.5 42.2% under_5.5 57.8%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 67.9% under_1.5 32.1% over_2.5 42.2%
under_2.5 57.8%
team_away
over_1.5 76.6% under_1.5 23.4% over_2.5 53.4%
under_2.5 46.6%
most
home 33.8% draw 17.3% away 48.9%
handicap
home_-1.5 19.5% away_+1.5 80.5% home_-0.5 33.8%
away_+0.5 66.2% home_+0.5 51.1% away_-0.5 48.9%
home_+1.5 67.9% away_-1.5 32.1%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 92.3% under_20.5 7.7% over_22.5 85.7%
under_22.5 14.3% over_24.5 76.6% under_24.5 23.4%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 87.4% under_9.5 12.6% over_11.5 73.8%
under_11.5 26.2% over_13.5 56.6% under_13.5 43.4%
team_away
over_9.5 88.3% under_9.5 11.7% over_11.5 75.3%
under_11.5 24.7% over_13.5 58.4% under_13.5 41.6%
most
home 45.4% draw 6.5% away 48.1%
handicap
home_-3.5 27.4% away_+3.5 72.6% home_-0.5 45.4%
away_+0.5 54.6% home_+2.5 64.5% away_-2.5 35.5%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 29.2% no 70.8%
home
yes 13.0% no 87.0%
away
yes 18.6% no 81.4%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0097 (54671 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Alaves predictions · Getafe predictions · La Liga

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

Explore this match

La LigaAlavesGetafeTrack record