2. Bundesliga
Darmstadt vs Hannover Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Result
We called Over 2.5 at 57.5% and it missed. We called Under 3.5 at 64.9% and it landed. We called Yes at 73.7% and it missed (0 in the match).
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 2.5 goals at 57.5%, its strongest read on the Over / Under 2.5 Goals market. Recent output points the same way: Darmstadt have averaged 0.8 scored and 1.6 conceded, Hannover 1.6 and 2.2 over their recent games. That fits an open goals environment: 57.5% for over 2.5 and 80.5% for at least two goals. Their last 5 meetings have averaged 3.4 goals a game. Darmstadt have gone over 2.5 in 2 of their last 5, Hannover in 3 of 5. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Total goals, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 94.4% | 5.6% |
| 1.5 goals | 80.5% | 19.5% |
| 2.5 goals | 57.5% | 42.5% |
| 3.5 goals | 35.1% | 64.9% |
| 4.5 goals | 18.4% | 81.6% |
| 5.5 goals | 8.3% | 91.7% |
Team goal lines
79.5%
47.0%
21.3%
75.5%
41.1%
16.9%
First-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 73.7% | 26.3% |
| 1.5 goals | 38.6% | 61.4% |
| 2.5 goals | 15.2% | 84.9% |
Second-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 80.2% | 19.8% |
| 1.5 goals | 48.1% | 51.9% |
| 2.5 goals | 22.2% | 77.8% |
Goals distribution
The model’s probability for the total number of goals, the shape behind every goals market. The 5+ bar groups every result with five or more goals.
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In-depth analysis
60.6%Both Teams to Score57.5%Over 2.5 goalsLooking at totals, the model sees 57.5% for three or more goals and 80.5% for at least two, painting a balanced picture. Given Darmstadt favoured at 41.2%, neither side dominating can mean an end-to-end match.
Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
Match outlook
The model leans Darmstadt to win. See the full prediction →
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Darmstadt 3 · 0 draws · Hannover 2 · 3.4 goals/game.
Recent trends
How often both teams scored and the match went over 2.5 in each side’s recent games.
FAQ
Were there over 2.5 goals in Darmstadt vs Hannover?
We rated Over 2.5 goals at 57.5%. The match finished with 1 goals (0-1), under 2.5.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals accuracy
How our Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 18,212 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Over / Under 2.5 Goals actually happened 53.9% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 12 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls
The model’s most recent graded Over / Under 2.5 Goals predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More 2. Bundesliga, Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.