Süper Lig
Corum vs 
Kasimpasa Cards
Result
Settled, final score 0-1. We don’t store the live count for this market, so there is no graded verdict here.
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 3.5 cards at 66.8%, its strongest read on the Cards market. The total-cards ladder runs from 83.3% for over 2.5 to 30.7% for over 5.5, with over 4.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 47.9%. Head to head on cards, Kasimpasa are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 48.0%, with a level count at 19.0%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 83.3% | 16.7% |
| 3.5 cards | 66.8% | 33.2% |
| 4.5 cards | 47.9% | 52.1% |
| 5.5 cards | 30.7% | 69.3% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
61.3%
34.3%
71.0%
45.3%
Card handicap
| Corum line | Corum | Kasimpasa |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 17.8% | 82.2% |
| -0.5 | 33.0% | 67.0% |
| +0.5 | 52.0% | 48.0% |
| +1.5 | 70.3% | 29.7% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 86.9% | 13.2% |
| 22.5 fouls | 76.7% | 23.3% |
| 24.5 fouls | 63.7% | 36.3% |
Bookings are a lower-liquidity market, so calibration matters most here, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Corum vs Kasimpasa. It tips Kasimpasa for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
66.8%Over 3.5 cards26.3%Any red card61.3%Corum over 1.5 cards71.0%Kasimpasa over 1.5 cards76.7%Over 22.5 foulsSplit by side, Corum over 1.5 cards sits at 61.3% and Kasimpasa at 71.0%. A red card for either side is rated at 26.3% (Corum 11.3%, Kasimpasa 17.0%).
Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. We grade every call after the match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Corum vs Kasimpasa?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 66.8% for Corum vs Kasimpasa.
Will there be a red card in Corum vs Kasimpasa?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 26.3%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Corum vs Kasimpasa?
Before kickoff, the model rated Kasimpasa to pick up more cards at 48.0%, with a level count at 19.0%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 10,079 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Cards actually happened 65.7% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 13 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Süper Lig, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.