League TwoCheltenham vs Chesterfield Shots
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 24.5 shots at 44.9%, its strongest read on the Shots market. Line by line, the read runs from 57.7% for over 22.5 to 22.9% for over 28.5, with over 24.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 44.9%. On the shot count, Cheltenham are the model’s pick to have more shots at 49.8%, with a level count at 6.5%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Shots
Total shots, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 22.5 shots | 57.7% | 42.3% |
| 24.5 shots | 44.9% | 55.1% |
| 26.5 shots | 33.0% | 67.0% |
| 28.5 shots | 22.9% | 77.1% |
Who takes more shots
Team shot lines
62.7%
44.8%
28.9%
58.6%
40.4%
25.2%
Shot handicap
| Cheltenham line | Cheltenham | Chesterfield |
|---|---|---|
| -2.5 | 37.0% | 63.0% |
| -0.5 | 49.8% | 50.2% |
| +0.5 | 56.3% | 43.7% |
| +2.5 | 68.6% | 31.4% |
Shots on target
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 shots on target | 67.0% | 33.0% |
| 7.5 shots on target | 54.4% | 45.6% |
| 8.5 shots on target | 42.0% | 58.0% |
| 9.5 shots on target | 30.9% | 69.1% |
Recent shot volume
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
This season (2026/27)
9.8Cheltenham shots per game14.7Cheltenham shots faced per game14.7Chesterfield shots per game12.5Chesterfield shots faced per gameShot counts move with pressure, not with the result, below are the model total-shot probabilities. It edges Cheltenham.
In-depth analysis
These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. The track record is public, misses included.
44.9%Over 24.5 shots44.8%Cheltenham over 12.5 shots40.4%Chesterfield over 12.5 shots54.4%Over 7.5 on targetFor the team lines, Cheltenham over 12.5 shots sits at 44.8% and Chesterfield at 40.4%. This season Cheltenham have averaged 9.8 shots a game and Chesterfield 14.7.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many shots in Cheltenham vs Chesterfield?
The model rates over 24.5 total shots at 44.9% for Cheltenham vs Chesterfield.
Which team will have more shots in Cheltenham vs Chesterfield?
The model rates Cheltenham to take more shots at 49.8%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Shots accuracy
How our Shots calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 16,705 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Shots actually happened 47.0% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 20 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Shots calls
Our most recent Shots calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More League Two, Shots
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
