Segunda DivisiónCeuta vs 
Las Palmas Corners
Result
Settled, final score 0-2. We don’t store the live count for this market, so there is no graded verdict here.
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 9.5 corners at 42.7%, its strongest read on the Corners market. Line by line, the read runs from 67.9% for over 7.5 to 14.6% for over 12.5, with over 8.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 55.5%. Head to head on corners, Ceuta are the model’s pick to win the corner count at 51.0%, with a level count at 11.4%. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Corners
Total corners, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 7.5 corners | 67.9% | 32.1% |
| 8.5 corners | 55.5% | 44.5% |
| 9.5 corners | 43.0% | 57.0% |
| 10.5 corners | 31.6% | 68.4% |
| 11.5 corners | 22.0% | 78.0% |
| 12.5 corners | 14.6% | 85.4% |
Who wins the corner count
Team corner lines
68.5%
52.0%
36.5%
59.3%
41.8%
27.0%
Corner handicap
| Ceuta line | Ceuta | Las Palmas |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 39.6% | 60.4% |
| -0.5 | 51.0% | 49.0% |
| +0.5 | 62.4% | 37.6% |
| +1.5 | 72.8% | 27.2% |
The corners market rewards teams that camp in the final third, below are the model total-corner probabilities. The model edges Ceuta.
In-depth analysis
Split by side, Ceuta over 4.5 corners sits at 52.0% and Las Palmas at 41.8%.
We publish the model, not a sure thing. We grade every call after the match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many corners in Ceuta vs Las Palmas?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 9.5 total corners at 43.0% for Ceuta vs Las Palmas.
Which team will win the corner count in Ceuta vs Las Palmas?
Before kickoff, the model rated Ceuta to win the corner count at 51.0%, with a level count at 11.4%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Corners accuracy
How our Corners calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 21,548 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Corners actually happened 47.7% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 11 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Corners calls
The model’s most recent graded Corners predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Segunda División, Corners
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.