Albacete vs Sociedad B: model prediction
Segunda DivisiónAlbacete or draw
Over 1.5 goals
Over 8.5 corners
Full time1 of 2 calls right
Our most likely call was Albacete at 49.5%, and it was wrong. We called Under 2.5 at 50.7% and it missed (3 goals). We called Yes at 52.4% and it landed.
Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.
Prediction summary
Top 3 convictions
Model read
▾
A measured edge to Albacete: 50% is the model's line for this Segunda División meeting on 22 August 2026. Three angles decide this preview: 1) Worth knowing: bookmakers rate Albacete higher (54%) than our model does. 2) No strong lean on goals (49% Over 2.5). The interest, if any, lives elsewhere. 3) Head to head, the last 2 meetings gave 1 wins for Albacete, 1 draws and 0 for Sociedad B, averaging 2.0 goals a game. Form guide over the last six: Albacete W4 D0 L2, Sociedad B W1 D3 L2. Discipline says sit it out: conservative EV -0.008 <= 0.
Value & higher-risk angles
Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.
Model vs market
49.5%-4.1%
26.2%-0.5%
24.4%+4.7%
conservative EV -0.008 <= 0
Goals markets
Strong chance
Reasonable chance
Good chance
Corners markets
Good chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Low chance
Shots markets
Strong chance
Good chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Totals line guide
Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.
Form & head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Albacete 1 · 1 draws · Sociedad B 0 · 2.0 goals/game.
Season stats
Season 2026/27, real results only
Bookmaker odds
Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Goals
Corners
Cards
Shots on target
Shots
Fouls
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots on target
| Over 6.5 | 77.7% | Over 7.5 | 66.1% | Over 8.5 | 53.3% | Over 9.5 | 40.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Albacete | 52.4% | Most: Sociedad B | 34.8% | ||||
| Albacete Over 4.2 | 52.2% | Sociedad B Over 4.2 | 39.5% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 | 86.7% | Over 3.5 | 72.2% | Over 4.5 | 54.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Albacete | 33.4% | Most: Sociedad B | 48.3% | ||
| Albacete Over 1.8 | 65.5% | Sociedad B Over 1.8 | 74.5% |
Clean sheet & win to nil
| Albacete clean sheet | 34.8% |
|---|---|
| Sociedad B clean sheet | 20.2% |
| Albacete win to nil | 27.1% |
| Sociedad B win to nil | 12.6% |
Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home | 49.5% | draw | 26.2% | away | 24.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
double_chance
| 1X | 75.6% | 12 | 73.9% | X2 | 50.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
dnb
| home | 67.0% | away | 33.0% |
|---|
btts
| yes | 52.4% | no | 47.6% |
|---|
clean_sheet
| home | 35.0% | away | 20.3% |
|---|
win_to_nil
| home | 27.3% | away | 12.6% |
|---|
winning_margin
| home_by_1 | 23.3% | home_by_2 | 15.3% | home_by_3plus | 10.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_by_1 | 15.1% | away_by_2 | 6.6% | away_by_3plus | 2.7% |
correct_score
| 0-0 | 7.7% | 0-1 | 6.8% | 0-2 | 3.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | 1.4% | 0-4 | 0.4% | 0-5 | 0.1% |
| 1-0 | 10.7% | 1-1 | 12.5% | 1-2 | 6.2% |
| 1-3 | 2.2% | 1-4 | 0.6% | 1-5 | 0.1% |
| 2-0 | 9.0% | 2-1 | 9.5% | 2-2 | 5.0% |
| 2-3 | 1.7% | 2-4 | 0.5% | 2-5 | 0.1% |
| 3-0 | 4.8% | 3-1 | 5.0% | 3-2 | 2.7% |
| 3-3 | 0.9% | 3-4 | 0.2% | 3-5 | 0.1% |
| 4-0 | 1.9% | 4-1 | 2.0% | 4-2 | 1.1% |
| 4-3 | 0.4% | 4-4 | 0.1% | 4-5 | 0.0% |
| 5-0 | 0.6% | 5-1 | 0.6% | 5-2 | 0.3% |
| 5-3 | 0.1% | 5-4 | 0.0% | 5-5 | 0.0% |
| other | 0.7% |
likeliest_score
| h | 100.0% | a | 100.0% | p | 12.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 | 92.3% | under_0.5 | 7.7% | over_1.5 | 74.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 25.3% | over_2.5 | 49.3% | under_2.5 | 50.7% |
| over_3.5 | 27.4% | under_3.5 | 72.6% | over_4.5 | 12.9% |
| under_4.5 | 87.1% | over_5.5 | 5.3% | under_5.5 | 94.7% |
odd_even
| odd | 48.6% | even | 51.4% |
|---|
team_home
| over_0.5 | 79.7% | under_0.5 | 20.3% | over_1.5 | 47.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 52.6% | over_2.5 | 21.6% | under_2.5 | 78.4% |
team_away
| over_0.5 | 65.0% | under_0.5 | 35.0% | over_1.5 | 28.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 71.7% | over_2.5 | 9.0% | under_2.5 | 91.0% |
most
| home | 49.5% | draw | 26.2% | away | 24.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 10.9% | away_+2.5 | 89.1% | home_-1.5 | 26.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 73.8% | home_-0.5 | 49.5% | away_+0.5 | 50.5% |
| home_+0.5 | 75.6% | away_-0.5 | 24.4% | home_+1.5 | 90.7% |
| away_-1.5 | 9.3% | home_+2.5 | 97.3% | away_-2.5 | 2.7% |
total_exact
| exact_0 | 7.7% | exact_1 | 17.6% | exact_2 | 25.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 21.9% | exact_4 | 14.5% | exact_5 | 7.7% |
| exact_6 | 3.4% | exact_7plus | 1.9% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 39.1% | draw | 42.1% | away | 18.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 68.4% | under_0.5 | 31.7% | over_1.5 | 31.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 68.1% | over_2.5 | 11.0% | under_2.5 | 89.0% |
btts
| yes | 17.7% | no | 82.3% |
|---|
total_exact
| exact_0 | 31.7% | exact_1 | 36.4% | exact_2 | 21.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 8.0% | exact_4plus | 3.0% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 40.2% | draw | 36.7% | away | 23.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 76.8% | under_0.5 | 23.2% | over_1.5 | 42.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 57.1% | over_2.5 | 18.1% | under_2.5 | 81.9% |
btts
| yes | 25.8% | no | 74.2% |
|---|
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H | 32.3% | H/D | 5.1% | H/A | 1.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D/H | 16.9% | D/D | 15.5% | D/A | 9.7% |
| A/H | 2.3% | A/D | 4.3% | A/A | 12.2% |
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 | 73.6% | under_7.5 | 26.4% | over_8.5 | 62.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_8.5 | 38.0% | over_9.5 | 49.8% | under_9.5 | 50.2% |
| over_10.5 | 38.0% | under_10.5 | 62.0% | over_11.5 | 27.6% |
| under_11.5 | 72.4% | over_12.5 | 19.1% | under_12.5 | 80.9% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 75.5% | under_3.5 | 24.5% | over_4.5 | 60.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 39.5% | over_5.5 | 45.2% | under_5.5 | 54.9% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 59.1% | under_3.5 | 40.9% | over_4.5 | 41.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 58.4% | over_5.5 | 26.9% | under_5.5 | 73.1% |
most
| home | 57.1% | draw | 10.6% | away | 32.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 25.8% | away_+3.5 | 74.2% | home_-1.5 | 46.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 54.0% | home_-0.5 | 57.1% | away_+0.5 | 42.9% |
| home_+0.5 | 67.7% | away_-0.5 | 32.3% | home_+1.5 | 77.0% |
| away_-1.5 | 23.0% | home_+3.5 | 90.2% | away_-3.5 | 9.8% |
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 | 69.5% | under_22.5 | 30.5% | over_24.5 | 57.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_24.5 | 42.7% | over_26.5 | 44.7% | under_26.5 | 55.3% |
| over_28.5 | 32.9% | under_28.5 | 67.1% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_10.5 | 78.8% | under_10.5 | 21.2% | over_12.5 | 63.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 36.4% | over_14.5 | 47.0% | under_14.5 | 53.0% |
team_away
| over_10.5 | 56.8% | under_10.5 | 43.2% | over_12.5 | 38.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 61.8% | over_14.5 | 22.9% | under_14.5 | 77.1% |
most
| home | 64.6% | draw | 5.8% | away | 29.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-4.5 | 39.6% | away_+4.5 | 60.4% | home_-2.5 | 52.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+2.5 | 47.8% | home_-0.5 | 64.6% | away_+0.5 | 35.4% |
| home_+0.5 | 70.4% | away_-0.5 | 29.6% | home_+2.5 | 80.4% |
| away_-2.5 | 19.6% | home_+4.5 | 88.0% | away_-4.5 | 12.0% |
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 | 77.7% | under_6.5 | 22.3% | over_7.5 | 66.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_7.5 | 33.9% | over_8.5 | 53.3% | under_8.5 | 46.7% |
| over_9.5 | 40.7% | under_9.5 | 59.3% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 69.8% | under_3.5 | 30.2% | over_4.5 | 52.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 47.8% | over_5.5 | 35.6% | under_5.5 | 64.5% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 58.2% | under_3.5 | 41.8% | over_4.5 | 39.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 60.5% | over_5.5 | 24.0% | under_5.5 | 76.0% |
most
| home | 52.4% | draw | 12.8% | away | 34.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 27.7% | away_+2.5 | 72.3% | home_-0.5 | 52.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 47.6% | home_+0.5 | 65.2% | away_-0.5 | 34.8% |
| home_+2.5 | 85.2% | away_-2.5 | 14.8% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 | 86.8% | under_2.5 | 13.3% | over_3.5 | 72.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_3.5 | 27.8% | over_4.5 | 54.3% | under_4.5 | 45.7% |
| over_5.5 | 36.8% | under_5.5 | 63.2% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_1.5 | 65.5% | under_1.5 | 34.5% | over_2.5 | 38.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 61.2% |
team_away
| over_1.5 | 74.5% | under_1.5 | 25.5% | over_2.5 | 49.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 50.1% |
most
| home | 33.5% | draw | 18.2% | away | 48.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-1.5 | 18.6% | away_+1.5 | 81.4% | home_-0.5 | 33.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 66.6% | home_+0.5 | 51.7% | away_-0.5 | 48.3% |
| home_+1.5 | 69.4% | away_-1.5 | 30.6% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 | 79.2% | under_20.5 | 20.8% | over_22.5 | 67.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_22.5 | 32.6% | over_24.5 | 53.9% | under_24.5 | 46.1% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_9.5 | 73.2% | under_9.5 | 26.8% | over_11.5 | 53.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 46.2% | over_13.5 | 34.8% | under_13.5 | 65.2% |
team_away
| over_9.5 | 80.4% | under_9.5 | 19.6% | over_11.5 | 63.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 36.6% | over_13.5 | 44.6% | under_13.5 | 55.5% |
most
| home | 39.7% | draw | 6.8% | away | 53.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 21.8% | away_+3.5 | 78.3% | home_-0.5 | 39.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 60.3% | home_+2.5 | 60.2% | away_-2.5 | 39.8% |
Red card range, not a point
any
| yes | 18.6% | no | 81.4% |
|---|
home
| yes | 3.5% | no | 96.5% |
|---|
away
| yes | 15.7% | no | 84.3% |
|---|
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.
Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.
We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.
Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).
More: Albacete predictions · Sociedad B predictions · Segunda División
Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.
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