Result

The match produced 1.20 xG for Celta and 3.13 xG for Ath Bilbao, against a final score of 0-2. The chances and the scoreline broadly agreed.

Expected Goals (xG)

1.02Celta xG created/game

1.67Celta xG conceded/game

1.42Ath Bilbao xG created/game

1.03Ath Bilbao xG conceded/game

Recent xG created & conceded (per game)

Celta have created 1.02 xG and scored 1.33 per game over their last 6, scoring above their xG. Ath Bilbao have created 1.42 xG and scored 1.33 per game over their last 6, tracking their xG closely.

Real Understat xG, recent games only (the five leagues we cover for xG). xG measures chance quality, not a tip.

In-depth analysis

49.0%Favoured: Celta

51.2%Both Teams to Score

47.6%Over 2.5 goals

We publish the model, not a sure thing. The track record is public, misses included.

Match outlook

The model leans Celta to win. See the full prediction →

Form & head-to-head

Last 5 meetings: Celta 2 · 1 draws · Ath Bilbao 2 · 2.8 goals/game.

FAQ

How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.

Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.

Overall model accuracy

We don’t yet publish a graded Expected Goals (xG)-specific track record, so this is our overall accuracy across every 1X2 call, graded out-of-sample, updated daily.

Predictions & track record updated 12 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →

More La Liga, Expected Goals (xG)

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