Segunda DivisiónCelta B vs Eibar Over / Under 2.5 Goals
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Under 2.5 goals at 60.5%, its strongest read on the Over / Under 2.5 Goals market. The goals picture is built on form: Celta B have averaged 1.8 scored and 1.0 conceded, Eibar 1.4 and 1.0 over their recent games. That fits a tighter goals environment: 39.5% for over 2.5 and 66.8% for at least two goals. Celta B have gone over 2.5 in 2 of their last 4, Eibar in 3 of 5. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Total goals, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 89.0% | 11.0% |
| 1.5 goals | 66.8% | 33.2% |
| 2.5 goals | 39.5% | 60.5% |
| 3.5 goals | 19.4% | 80.6% |
| 4.5 goals | 8.0% | 92.0% |
| 5.5 goals | 2.8% | 97.2% |
Team goal lines
60.0%
23.4%
6.6%
74.1%
39.1%
15.5%
First-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 55.9% | 44.1% |
| 1.5 goals | 19.8% | 80.2% |
| 2.5 goals | 5.0% | 95.0% |
Second-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 77.0% | 23.0% |
| 1.5 goals | 43.2% | 56.8% |
| 2.5 goals | 18.3% | 81.7% |
Goals distribution
The model’s probability for the total number of goals, the shape behind every goals market. The 5+ bar groups every result with five or more goals.
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In-depth analysis
45.1%Both Teams to Score39.5%Over 2.5 goalsLooking at totals, the model sees 39.5% for three or more goals and 66.8% for at least two, painting a lower-scoring picture. With Eibar favoured at 46.1%, a competitive game tends to open up.
We publish the model, not a sure thing. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
Match outlook
The model leans Eibar to win. See the full prediction →
Form & head-to-head
Recent trends
How often both teams scored and the match went over 2.5 in each side’s recent games.
FAQ
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Celta B vs Eibar?
Our model rates Over 2.5 goals at 39.5% for Celta B vs Eibar.
Will there be a first-half goal in Celta B vs Eibar?
The model rates at least one goal before half-time at 55.9%.
How often have Celta B gone over 2.5 recently?
Celta B have gone over 2.5 in 2 of their last 4, Eibar in 3 of 5.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals accuracy
How our Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 8,251 matches we rated like this one (30–40%), Over / Under 2.5 Goals actually happened 41.6% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 13 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls
The model’s most recent graded Over / Under 2.5 Goals predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
AI experts on Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Open paper-trading picks from our model-strategy experts on this market, a transparent lab, never advice.
| Expert | Pick |
|---|---|
| treble v1.1 | Under 2.5 goals |
More Segunda División, Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.