Eredivisie
Cambuur vs 
Nijmegen Over / Under 2.5 Goals
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 2.5 goals at 67.9%, its strongest read on the Over / Under 2.5 Goals market. The goals picture is built on form: Cambuur have averaged 1.2 scored and 3.6 conceded, Nijmegen 2.2 and 1.8 over their recent games. That fits an open goals environment: 67.9% for over 2.5 and 86.8% for at least two goals. Their last 5 meetings have averaged 2.4 goals a game. Cambuur have gone over 2.5 in 5 of their last 5, Nijmegen in 5 of 5. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Total goals, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 96.5% | 3.5% |
| 1.5 goals | 86.8% | 13.2% |
| 2.5 goals | 67.9% | 32.1% |
| 3.5 goals | 46.3% | 53.7% |
| 4.5 goals | 27.4% | 72.6% |
| 5.5 goals | 14.2% | 85.8% |
Team goal lines
73.2%
37.9%
14.7%
88.7%
64.1%
37.2%
First-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 85.0% | 15.0% |
| 1.5 goals | 56.5% | 43.5% |
| 2.5 goals | 29.5% | 70.5% |
Second-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 89.2% | 10.8% |
| 1.5 goals | 65.2% | 34.8% |
| 2.5 goals | 38.5% | 61.5% |
This season (2026/27)
1.2Cambuur goals scored per game3.6Cambuur goals conceded per game100.0%Cambuur Over 2.5 rate0.2Cambuur 1st-half goals per game2.2Nijmegen goals scored per game1.8Nijmegen goals conceded per game100.0%Nijmegen Over 2.5 rate0.8Nijmegen 1st-half goals per gameGoals distribution
The model’s probability for the total number of goals, the shape behind every goals market. The 5+ bar groups every result with five or more goals.
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In-depth analysis
65.3%Both Teams to Score67.9%Over 2.5 goalsFor the goal environment, the model sees 67.9% for three or more goals and 86.8% for at least two, painting a balanced picture. With Nijmegen favoured at 56.7%, a close contest often produces chances at both ends.
We publish the model, not a sure thing. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
Match outlook
The model leans Nijmegen to win. See the full prediction →
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Cambuur 1 · 1 draws · Nijmegen 3 · 2.4 goals/game.
Recent trends
How often both teams scored and the match went over 2.5 in each side’s recent games.
FAQ
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Cambuur vs Nijmegen?
Our model rates Over 2.5 goals at 67.9% for Cambuur vs Nijmegen.
Will there be a first-half goal in Cambuur vs Nijmegen?
The model rates at least one goal before half-time at 85.0%.
How often have Cambuur gone over 2.5 recently?
Cambuur have gone over 2.5 in 5 of their last 5, Nijmegen in 5 of 5.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals accuracy
How our Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 6,496 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Over / Under 2.5 Goals actually happened 62.0% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 13 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls
The model’s most recent graded Over / Under 2.5 Goals predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Eredivisie, Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.