Serie A
Cagliari vs 
Inter Cards
Result
We called Under 3.5 at 56.1% and it landed (3 in the match). We called No at 90.4% and it landed (0 in the match).
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 3.5 cards at 44.0%, its strongest read on the Cards market. The total-cards ladder runs from 65.4% for over 2.5 to 13.3% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 44.0%. On the card count, Inter are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 40.5%, with a level count at 22.4%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 65.4% | 34.6% |
| 3.5 cards | 44.0% | 56.1% |
| 4.5 cards | 25.8% | 74.2% |
| 5.5 cards | 13.3% | 86.7% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
48.9%
23.3%
51.5%
25.5%
Card handicap
| Cagliari line | Cagliari | Inter |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 18.9% | 81.2% |
| -0.5 | 37.1% | 62.9% |
| +0.5 | 59.5% | 40.5% |
| +1.5 | 78.6% | 21.4% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 75.7% | 24.3% |
| 22.5 fouls | 63.5% | 36.5% |
| 24.5 fouls | 50.2% | 49.8% |
The discipline market is less analysed than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Cagliari vs Inter. Slightly more cards are projected for Inter for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
44.0%Over 3.5 cards9.6%Any red card48.9%Cagliari over 1.5 cards51.5%Inter over 1.5 cards63.5%Over 22.5 foulsBy team, Cagliari over 1.5 cards sits at 48.9% and Inter at 51.5%. A red card for either side is rated at 9.6% (Cagliari 7.0%, Inter 2.8%).
Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Cagliari vs Inter?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 44.0% for Cagliari vs Inter.
Will there be a red card in Cagliari vs Inter?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 9.6%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Cagliari vs Inter?
Before kickoff, the model rated Inter to pick up more cards at 40.5%, with a level count at 22.4%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 10,145 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Cards actually happened 48.6% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 12 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Serie A, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.