Cadiz vs Celta B: model prediction
Segunda División
Cadiz or draw
Over 1.5 goals
Over 8.5 corners
Full time2 of 2 calls right
Our most likely call was Cadiz at 45.6%, and it was wrong. We called Under 2.5 at 55.3% and it landed (0 goals). We called No at 50.3% and it landed.
Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.
Prediction summary
Top 3 convictions
Model read
▾
"Cadiz or Celta B? We publish probabilities, not certainties." A measured edge to Cadiz: 46% is the model's line for this Segunda División meeting on 15 August 2026. Market and model are aligned here; the fair price says 48%. This shapes as a low scoring affair: Over 2.5 is only 45% with both teams to score at 50%. As a promoted side, Celta B carry exactly the structural uncertainty our priors were built for. Discipline says sit it out: value_gap +0.016 <= 0.03.
Value & higher-risk angles
Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.
Model vs market
45.6%-2.7%
27.8%+1.6%
26.6%+1.1%
value_gap +0.016 <= 0.03
Goals markets
Strong chance
Reasonable chance
Reasonable chance
Corners markets
Good chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Low chance
Shots markets
Strong chance
Good chance
Toss-up
Low chance
Totals line guide
Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.
Form & head-to-head
Bookmaker odds
Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Goals
Corners
Cards
Shots on target
Shots
Fouls
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots on target
| Over 6.5 | 72.9% | Over 7.5 | 60.1% | Over 8.5 | 46.8% | Over 9.5 | 34.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Cadiz | 45.4% | Most: Celta B | 41.1% | ||||
| Cadiz Over 4.2 | 42.9% | Celta B Over 4.2 | 39.8% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 | 85.8% | Over 3.5 | 70.7% | Over 4.5 | 52.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Cadiz | 45.9% | Most: Celta B | 35.5% | ||
| Cadiz Over 1.8 | 72.3% | Celta B Over 1.8 | 65.9% |
Clean sheet & win to nil
| Cadiz clean sheet | 35.5% |
|---|---|
| Celta B clean sheet | 23.9% |
| Cadiz win to nil | 26.4% |
| Celta B win to nil | 14.7% |
Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home | 45.6% | draw | 27.8% | away | 26.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
double_chance
| 1X | 73.4% | 12 | 72.2% | X2 | 54.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
dnb
| home | 63.2% | away | 36.8% |
|---|
btts
| yes | 49.7% | no | 50.3% |
|---|
clean_sheet
| home | 35.6% | away | 23.9% |
|---|
win_to_nil
| home | 26.5% | away | 14.7% |
|---|
winning_margin
| home_by_1 | 23.1% | home_by_2 | 13.9% | home_by_3plus | 8.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_by_1 | 16.5% | away_by_2 | 7.2% | away_by_3plus | 2.9% |
correct_score
| 0-0 | 9.1% | 0-1 | 8.2% | 0-2 | 4.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | 1.6% | 0-4 | 0.4% | 0-5 | 0.1% |
| 1-0 | 11.6% | 1-1 | 13.2% | 1-2 | 6.5% |
| 1-3 | 2.2% | 1-4 | 0.6% | 1-5 | 0.1% |
| 2-0 | 8.7% | 2-1 | 9.0% | 2-2 | 4.7% |
| 2-3 | 1.6% | 2-4 | 0.4% | 2-5 | 0.1% |
| 3-0 | 4.2% | 3-1 | 4.3% | 3-2 | 2.2% |
| 3-3 | 0.8% | 3-4 | 0.2% | 3-5 | 0.0% |
| 4-0 | 1.5% | 4-1 | 1.5% | 4-2 | 0.8% |
| 4-3 | 0.3% | 4-4 | 0.1% | 4-5 | 0.0% |
| 5-0 | 0.4% | 5-1 | 0.4% | 5-2 | 0.2% |
| 5-3 | 0.1% | 5-4 | 0.0% | 5-5 | 0.0% |
| other | 0.4% |
likeliest_score
| h | 100.0% | a | 100.0% | p | 13.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 | 90.9% | under_0.5 | 9.1% | over_1.5 | 71.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 28.8% | over_2.5 | 44.7% | under_2.5 | 55.3% |
| over_3.5 | 23.5% | under_3.5 | 76.5% | over_4.5 | 10.4% |
| under_4.5 | 89.6% | over_5.5 | 4.0% | under_5.5 | 96.0% |
odd_even
| odd | 48.4% | even | 51.6% |
|---|
team_home
| over_0.5 | 76.1% | under_0.5 | 23.9% | over_1.5 | 41.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 58.1% | over_2.5 | 17.5% | under_2.5 | 82.6% |
team_away
| over_0.5 | 64.4% | under_0.5 | 35.6% | over_1.5 | 27.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 72.4% | over_2.5 | 8.6% | under_2.5 | 91.4% |
most
| home | 45.6% | draw | 27.8% | away | 26.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 8.6% | away_+2.5 | 91.4% | home_-1.5 | 22.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 77.5% | home_-0.5 | 45.6% | away_+0.5 | 54.4% |
| home_+0.5 | 73.4% | away_-0.5 | 26.6% | home_+1.5 | 89.9% |
| away_-1.5 | 10.1% | home_+2.5 | 97.1% | away_-2.5 | 2.9% |
total_exact
| exact_0 | 9.1% | exact_1 | 19.7% | exact_2 | 26.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 21.2% | exact_4 | 13.1% | exact_5 | 6.5% |
| exact_6 | 2.7% | exact_7plus | 1.3% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 24.4% | draw | 42.5% | away | 33.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 68.9% | under_0.5 | 31.1% | over_1.5 | 32.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 67.4% | over_2.5 | 11.4% | under_2.5 | 88.6% |
btts
| yes | 19.3% | no | 80.7% |
|---|
total_exact
| exact_0 | 31.1% | exact_1 | 36.3% | exact_2 | 21.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 8.3% | exact_4plus | 3.1% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 31.7% | draw | 39.2% | away | 29.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 74.0% | under_0.5 | 26.0% | over_1.5 | 39.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 61.0% | over_2.5 | 15.4% | under_2.5 | 84.6% |
btts
| yes | 24.0% | no | 76.0% |
|---|
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H | 18.5% | H/D | 4.3% | H/A | 1.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D/H | 13.5% | D/D | 16.6% | D/A | 12.4% |
| A/H | 2.4% | A/D | 5.9% | A/A | 24.9% |
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 | 72.3% | under_7.5 | 27.7% | over_8.5 | 60.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_8.5 | 39.5% | over_9.5 | 48.2% | under_9.5 | 51.8% |
| over_10.5 | 36.4% | under_10.5 | 63.6% | over_11.5 | 26.2% |
| under_11.5 | 73.8% | over_12.5 | 17.9% | under_12.5 | 82.1% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 72.7% | under_3.5 | 27.3% | over_4.5 | 57.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 43.0% | over_5.5 | 41.5% | under_5.5 | 58.5% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 60.9% | under_3.5 | 39.1% | over_4.5 | 43.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 56.5% | over_5.5 | 28.5% | under_5.5 | 71.5% |
most
| home | 53.4% | draw | 10.9% | away | 35.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 22.6% | away_+3.5 | 77.4% | home_-1.5 | 42.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 57.7% | home_-0.5 | 53.4% | away_+0.5 | 46.6% |
| home_+0.5 | 64.4% | away_-0.5 | 35.6% | home_+1.5 | 74.2% |
| away_-1.5 | 25.8% | home_+3.5 | 88.7% | away_-3.5 | 11.3% |
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 | 63.5% | under_22.5 | 36.5% | over_24.5 | 50.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_24.5 | 49.3% | over_26.5 | 38.2% | under_26.5 | 61.8% |
| over_28.5 | 27.1% | under_28.5 | 73.0% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_10.5 | 72.0% | under_10.5 | 28.0% | over_12.5 | 54.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 45.1% | over_14.5 | 38.0% | under_14.5 | 62.0% |
team_away
| over_10.5 | 56.9% | under_10.5 | 43.2% | over_12.5 | 38.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 61.8% | over_14.5 | 22.9% | under_14.5 | 77.1% |
most
| home | 58.5% | draw | 6.3% | away | 35.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-4.5 | 33.0% | away_+4.5 | 67.0% | home_-2.5 | 45.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+2.5 | 54.5% | home_-0.5 | 58.5% | away_+0.5 | 41.5% |
| home_+0.5 | 64.8% | away_-0.5 | 35.3% | home_+2.5 | 76.0% |
| away_-2.5 | 24.0% | home_+4.5 | 84.9% | away_-4.5 | 15.1% |
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 | 72.9% | under_6.5 | 27.1% | over_7.5 | 60.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_7.5 | 39.9% | over_8.5 | 46.9% | under_8.5 | 53.2% |
| over_9.5 | 34.4% | under_9.5 | 65.6% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 61.5% | under_3.5 | 38.5% | over_4.5 | 42.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 57.1% | over_5.5 | 27.0% | under_5.5 | 73.0% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 58.6% | under_3.5 | 41.4% | over_4.5 | 39.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 60.2% | over_5.5 | 24.3% | under_5.5 | 75.7% |
most
| home | 45.4% | draw | 13.5% | away | 41.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 21.5% | away_+2.5 | 78.5% | home_-0.5 | 45.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 54.6% | home_+0.5 | 58.9% | away_-0.5 | 41.1% |
| home_+2.5 | 81.6% | away_-2.5 | 18.4% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 | 85.9% | under_2.5 | 14.1% | over_3.5 | 70.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_3.5 | 29.3% | over_4.5 | 52.6% | under_4.5 | 47.4% |
| over_5.5 | 35.1% | under_5.5 | 64.9% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_1.5 | 72.3% | under_1.5 | 27.7% | over_2.5 | 47.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 53.0% |
team_away
| over_1.5 | 66.0% | under_1.5 | 34.1% | over_2.5 | 39.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 60.7% |
most
| home | 45.9% | draw | 18.6% | away | 35.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-1.5 | 28.3% | away_+1.5 | 71.7% | home_-0.5 | 45.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 54.1% | home_+0.5 | 64.5% | away_-0.5 | 35.5% |
| home_+1.5 | 80.0% | away_-1.5 | 20.0% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 | 82.8% | under_20.5 | 17.2% | over_22.5 | 72.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_22.5 | 27.9% | over_24.5 | 59.4% | under_24.5 | 40.6% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_9.5 | 82.4% | under_9.5 | 17.6% | over_11.5 | 66.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 33.7% | over_13.5 | 47.9% | under_13.5 | 52.2% |
team_away
| over_9.5 | 76.7% | under_9.5 | 23.3% | over_11.5 | 58.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 41.6% | over_13.5 | 39.4% | under_13.5 | 60.6% |
most
| home | 52.6% | draw | 6.7% | away | 40.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 32.9% | away_+3.5 | 67.1% | home_-0.5 | 52.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 47.4% | home_+2.5 | 71.7% | away_-2.5 | 28.3% |
Red card range, not a point
any
| yes | 16.5% | no | 83.5% |
|---|
home
| yes | 10.4% | no | 89.6% |
|---|
away
| yes | 6.7% | no | 93.3% |
|---|
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.
Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.
We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.
Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).
More: Cadiz predictions · Celta B predictions · Segunda División
Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.
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